There are 1080 hands left. We could probably round this to 1k. There are 6 nines, 6 queens, and 9 AQ and 9, A9. So at worst 30/1k => 3%.

I guess realistically they're only calling top 30%??? so 30/(30% * 1k) => 10%.

2 people to act, (1-0.1)^2 => 81% you're good

I kinda assume you did a similar calc, but are looking for a quicker way? Seems like rule of thumbing 10% chance each person has something isn't terrible, but that number seems really high.