Is this just Variance hitting me?

[hlester25]

Been taking MTT's fairly seriously now for about 12-13 months now.

Here's my stats from the first 8 months from FTP and Stars conbined-

# MTT's: 500
avg buy in: 11.00
ROI: 109%
total profit: slightly under 6K

Heres overall stats currently

# MTT's: 884
avg buy in: $13.00
ROI: 22%
total p[rofit: 2500

My biggest score is 1800. Is this variance just getting me or am I just not that good?

[hlester25]

i did play the MIL twice for 215 a piece and I played about 6 109's which have effected the stats but even without these tournies my results have fell off the map

[drmcboy]

probably the biggest challenge MTTs present is you need a huge sample size to get anywhere close to a reliable sample. So maybe it's variance and maybe it's you not that good. All you can do is constantly evaluate your play and have 100 buy ins

[hlester25]

how big is huge?

[drmcboy]

I have heard people say 10k. that's probably even more true at lower BIs just because of the bigger field size and bad structures. I would say at least 3k.

[drmcboy]

http://www.pocketfives.com/poker-art...n-MTTs-2426235

[hlester25]

cool, ty for your help. appreciated.

[hlester25]

So I guess a 400 MTT downswing is not too uncommon.

[drmcboy]

if that's the worst you hit you're doing great.

[hlester25]

Cool. Just took down my second 4.40 180 man in my last 8 or 10 so things starting to look better. Just waiting on that big score in a large field event

[herschelw]

30% roi in mtt's right now's not bad. It's probably solid for the ABI you have if you are multitabling a lot of tables. If you are one or two tabling it's a bit low but realistically if you're on a big downswing your actual roi firgures to be a bit higher than what your stats currently show.

[hlester25]

30% roi in mtt's right now's not bad. It's probably solid for the ABI you have if you are multitabling a lot of tables. If you are one or two tabling it's a bit low but realistically if you're on a big downswing your actual roi firgures to be a bit higher than what your stats currently show.

I usually play 4-6 tables when I play, but sometimes only 2 or 3. Actually that brings up a good point because when I first started getting into MTT's, I would only play one or two at a time. Only recently have I started to play 4-6 tables almost all the time I play. I'm sure this has effected my ROI. Ive also been incorporating various "plays" into my game. I switch gears from TAG to LAG to maniac a lot. I know it takes time to get good at this since before I would only play TAG (a little looser TAG than normal but still TAG). Do you think the ROI drop could be attributed to the growing pains? I do feel I am getting better overall but just don't have overall results yet to make me feel good

[herschelw]

Generally in the buyins you play TAG play is almost a must until the very late stages. But by TAG I dont mean "old man" style. You would still limp 67s behind another limper and play small pairs to set mine if you have the correct implied odds etc. $50 buyin plus then switching gears to LAG at times is very valuable. I think you will find consistent and better results if you stick to a TAG style of play. I've always been a pretty LAG player myself but you have to adapt to the buyin and the situation. I generally play 12 tables at a time(mtt's) and run around a 30% roi over the long run on stars and ftp(higher on smaller sites). You're definitly going to take some time to adjust to 4-6 tabling and the challenges it presents. If your style depends on great reads during early or middle levels it will clearly be a bit of a struggle playing more tables. Also, adding LAG elements to your game and playing more tables simultaneously is generally a bad idea because both changes take time to adjust to and present you with problems to conquer. Doing both at the same time compounds things.

[hlester25]

Generally in the buyins you play TAG play is almost a must until the very late stages. But by TAG I dont mean "old man" style. You would still limp 67s behind another limper and play small pairs to set mine if you have the correct implied odds etc. $50 buyin plus then switching gears to LAG at times is very valuable. I think you will find consistent and better results if you stick to a TAG style of play. I've always been a pretty LAG player myself but you have to adapt to the buyin and the situation. I generally play 12 tables at a time(mtt's) and run around a 30% roi over the long run on stars and ftp(higher on smaller sites). You're definitly going to take some time to adjust to 4-6 tabling and the challenges it presents. If your style depends on great reads during early or middle levels it will clearly be a bit of a struggle playing more tables. Also, adding LAG elements to your game and playing more tables simultaneously is generally a bad idea because both changes take time to adjust to and present you with problems to conquer. Doing both at the same time compounds things.

Great advice, ty. I'm starting to see now why I've been slumping. I really did go from 1-2 tables to 4-6 tables without ever really thinking about the implications. I knew my ROI would fall, just not as much as it did. I have about 3 solid months of 4-6 tabling experience. Now that I'm getting better at it, I can see where I was making mistakes. After a terrible April and May, I had a winning month in June with a 70% ROI over 70ish MTT's. I also played about 250 18 man turbos (6 and sometimes 9 tabling) and had a 40% ROI. This has helped some with the dwindling roll.