$22, picking off a cbet

[fjuanl]

Villians numbers are pretty solid at this limit...have seen him make a cbet before

Poker Stars $20+$2 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t15/t30 Blinds - 9 players

BB: t1900
UTG: t1990
UTG+1: t1660
UTG+2: t1440
Hero (MP1): t1400
MP2: t1140
CO: t2050
BTN: t1325
SB: t595

Pre Flop: Hero is MP1 with 8 8
3 folds, Hero calls t30, 2 folds, BTN calls t30, SB calls t15, BB raises to t120, Hero calls t90, 2 folds

Flop: (t300) 5 K 3 (2 players)
BB bets t150, Hero raises to t400

[drmcboy]

you would have to work really hard to convince me limping is good here. How often are you stacking people in limped pots with a set?

Flop is fine/standard

[taipan168]

Preflop is pretty standard I think, raising is not terrible but I think I prefer this set-hunting line. I actually disagree that you can't stack people in a limped pot since donks limp Ax and Kx all the time and won't be able to get away from an A or K high flop.

With your read, I quite like the flop.

[kmind]

Reasoning for raising flop?

[fjuanl]

figuring his preflop range is somewhere around TT+ AQ+

I was curious if it was correct to raise if I know that that villian will be folding TT, JJ, QQ, AQ.

[drmcboy]

I never said you can't, I'm saying you make more money raising pre and winning the pot on the flop . We set 1/8, we stack what, maybe 1/16? I think even that is generous. I'd rather win a small pot 75% of the time vs the occasional big one. That also lines up with the ICM since winning 150 chips 10 times is better than 1500 once.

PS if you limp 88 here why not 78?

[givememyleg]

i limp here like 2% of the time

[kmind]

I fold. We just have 2 outs if called.

[taipan168]

I never said you can't, I'm saying you make more money raising pre and winning the pot on the flop . We set 1/8, we stack what, maybe 1/16? I think even that is generous. I'd rather win a small pot 75% of the time vs the occasional big one. That also lines up with the ICM since winning 150 chips 10 times is better than 1500 once.

I see your points, but the reasons I prefer limping are as follows:
- If we raise and somebody re-raises then absent a super good read we have to throw our hand away. However, if we limped and got standard raised, we can usually call and have correct implied odds to try to flop a set.
- If we raise and get flat called, and broadway cards come on the flop, are we c-betting? Will we really win 75% of the time in this spot?
- If we raise preflop we need to weigh up the times that we c-bet the flop, get called and have to c/f the turn thereby burning like 300 chips rather than just 30-120 if we limp and play for set value
- If we raise and get flat called by 2+ players, are we c-betting the flop with or without overs? A lot of players at the $22 level will not necessarily re-raise with 99-JJ in position.

That said, I think it is close either way, and I certainly do not think that raising is a bad play.

PS if you limp 88 here why not 78?

For the simple reason that if we get raised, we have odds to call the raise and play for implied odds value with 88 but not with 87.

[Fnord]

^^^^What he said.

I think the hand is well played.

[drmcboy]

I guess I generally assume most of my opps are on level 1, maybe it's a BI thing. If they are level 0 def limp call is best. If not, someone running 12/8 or whatever who limps, calls a raise and gives action has their hand face up.

- If we raise and get flat called, and broadway cards come on the flop, are we c-betting? Will we really win 75% of the time in this spot?

I'd say closer to 2/1, but don't forget we'll have a set on some of these flops.

- If we raise preflop we need to weigh up the times that we c-bet the flop, get called and have to c/f the turn thereby burning like 300 chips rather than just 30-120 if we limp and play for set value

counter balanced by much larger average pot when we hit set.

- If we raise and get flat called by 2+ players, are we c-betting the flop with or without overs? A lot of players at the $22 level will not necessarily re-raise with 99-JJ in position.

I don't see what this has to do with 88, getting called by two players and not having a hand is always a problem.

For the simple reason that if we get raised, we have odds to call the raise and play for implied odds value with 88 but not with 87.

Again this goes back to level 0/1. I'd rather limp (or raise) both so sometimes when we give action we have a nice big draw rather than the set so we can get mistake calls and mistake folds.

Also consider min raising, you can usually still call the raise coming back but get most of the benefit post flop of the pre raise.

[yourfather]

I like to do this occasionally on flops like this, but am trying to get a better handle on when this play is best.

I have a few Q's here and would be interested in op or anyone's response.

What if the flop had a slightly different texture such as K10x? What about this flop makes it a good 3 bet bluff spot besides one broadway etc..?

Did you have a read that he could lay down most pps in his range besides KK, AA? edit:you said you knew he would lay these down. Not sure how you know this.

Do you have stats/notes on this guy beyond this one sng besides ROI?

Did you read his semi-weak lead on this board as a standard aired c-bet? Maybe as a draw? What if he bet 2/3 or 3/4 pot?

If you were oop would you c/r him here?

If he calls and a non scare card comes on turn (i.e. not a heart, ace, maybe Q) do you shove turn?

[fjuanl]

Interesting...I posted this same thread on 2+2 forums...

- huge majority said to fold on the flop
- minority said to flat call the flop and hope villian c/f's the turn (ew..)
- no one said they liked this play
- no one said anything about raising preflop

(this is from about 8 different posters)

[Ryski]

I limp pre, fold this on the flop. Occasionally I'll actually bet into the raiser on a flop like this to take the c-bet option away from him. Not sure if that is good but usually works out and is less costly than a check-raise here. But yeah, as played I fold that flop this early.

[kmind]

I hate 2+2 fwiw but still meh gotta go with my answer.

[taipan168]

Re 2+2, we have a signal to noise ratio problem going on (which is often the problem there). The only regular poster there was pineapple and he said to fold the flop.

[Fnord]

Bluffing is part of a well balanced game. If you did this every time in this spot it would be spew. But once in a while it's just good poker.

My only concern is that such a small raise size may induce your opponent to peel forcing you to commit more chips overall to get him off of most of his range than you would with just a bigger raise. That said, it's a tourney and smaller bets/raises to conserve chips is the norm.