Reg shoves over my standard raise from MP, what range? ($27)

[taipan168]

Opp is a very solid winning multitabler, up $17k overall. Not sure if he recognises me but he would certainly have a few hundred hands of HUD stats on me.

This is a pretty easy preflop fold to the shove but my question is - what does he shove over an early MP raise with at level 3?!?!?!

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t50 (8 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

UTG (t1250)
UTG+1 (t1300)
Hero (t1475)
MP2 (t1680)
CO (t3305)
Button (t1140)
SB (t1770)
BB (t1580)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with A, K.
2 folds, Hero raises to t150, 4 folds, BB raises to t1580 with ?!?!?!, Hero folds.

[CoccoBill]

JJ+,AK?

[taipan168]

JJ+,AK?

Unless he is levelling me, would he really shove over with AA and KK?

[Nakamura]

Assuming he knows you are a good player and will probably fold anything less than AA or KK (am I right?), a push with middle pairs should be a reasonably safe bet and probably quite profitable? Perhaps my logic is off. But I doubt this is a monster (AA or KK).

EDIT: That said he would only need to run into AA or KK occassionally and get called for this to be -EV, surely?

[mukaka]

That's true but he should also know he's raising tight from MP1 and this raise could well be a monster.. He can't take that risk while multi-tabling IMO.. I also think that he is pushing JJ+,AK+ here.. Imo this is a JJ or AK .. But that doesn't mean he can trick you because he knows you are a good player and a 3bet would scream a monster to you..

[FlyingSaucy]

Your lay down is obv good and here's why.

Yes the excessive push raise is weird from a reg, but the reason for it is because of the awkward stack sizes. He has a hand that is worth a 3bet but if he does a standard size 3 bet that means he's putting in 450-500 preflop. If you call then the pot is around 1000 and you each have about that much left. The last thing he wants is to try to navigate a flop out of position with a stack the size of the pot, so pushing pre takes out that decision. He's thinking "if I happen to run up against AA or KK then so be it, but most players' EP raise range is a bit wider than that."
A standard sized 3 bet would make me think AA or KK is more likely because if you call the 3 bet and go the flop he's not concerned about being oop because he's just going to jam it on the flop anyway. That's obviously the standard line of thought at least. Maybe he knows that you know that. Although IMO multitablers generally aren't thinking too deeply about who their opponent is even with hud stats up.

You are looking at a close flip, probably slight dog here with his most likely holdings being QQ or JJ. I'm doubtful he is pushing TT or lower here rather than just flatting pre. Here's my range on him:

QQ 25%
JJ 25%
AK 20%
AA 10%
KK 10%
All others/bluff 10%

What does stove say to that? Is there a way to assign weights to hands? Eyeballing it looks like a flip to me with maybe him slightly ahead. 55/45 perhaps.

[drmcboy]

This is a pretty easy preflop fold to the shove but my question is - what does he shove over an early MP raise with at level 3?!?!?!

surely you can see the poor logic here

[FlyingSaucy]

Should have finished my previous post with this sentence.

So if my assessment of being on the losing end of a 55/45 is accurate, that's not only -EV for chips, it's a terrible spot to take the chance with this high of M and this far from the money.

[taipan168]

This is a pretty easy preflop fold to the shove but my question is - what does he shove over an early MP raise with at level 3?!?!?!

surely you can see the poor logic here

Only if he knows in advance that I'm such a nit that I will fold AKs here...

[drmcboy]

Only if he knows in advance that I'm such a nit that I will fold AKs here...

but he would certainly have a few hundred hands of HUD stats on me.

Of course he doesn't think you'll fold AKs, he just thinks you'll fold any non 3% hand. Assuming you're raising like 8% or so he's making most of his money when you fold and doesn't mind being a 2/1 dog when you call every once in a while. I think his range is really heavily weighed to AK and AQ.

The last thing he wants is to try to navigate a flop out of position with a stack the size of the pot, so pushing pre takes out that decision.

Nothing is easier than playing a pot with 1 bet left OOP.

[drmcboy]

Is there a way to assign weights to hands?

figure out the EC vs each holding, then multiply by your weight:

QQ EV* weight
bluff EV* weight

etc

more detail in HOH

[FlyingSaucy]

the calculation makes sense but I was hoping an app would let you do it rather than manually.

[drmcboy]

you can put specific hands into stove (QcQh rather than just QQ) to meet the %s you want, but I think that's more work.

[CoccoBill]

JJ+,AK?

Unless he is levelling me, would he really shove over with AA and KK?

In other words you would expect "a very solid winning multitabler" to slowplay KK+ as standard, why? I'd absolutely shove over here most of the time, the shove looks so much like a mid-high pp or AQ-AK that wouldn't mind at all if you fold. Then again, I'd expect to see mostly JJ, QQ and AK here.

[FlyingSaucy]

The last thing he wants is to try to navigate a flop out of position with a stack the size of the pot, so pushing pre takes out that decision.

Nothing is easier than playing a pot with 1 bet left OOP.

I can think of a lot of things easier. if opp has QQ and flop is Axx does he open push or c/f?

[GatorJH]

Personally, I don't think he minds a call here, however I also agree with Saucy that he would 3bet A's or K's with the intent of getting the rest in on the flop. I think his range is pretty narrow here and is limited to JJ, QQ, AKs or MAYBE AQs.

[mukaka]

I agree with coccobill as I said before.. If he knows Tai is a regular (I probably know most of the regs at my level) then he can shove this to disguise his hand.. I don't think we can rule out KK and AA here..