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call with atc here? bodog 100k

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  1. #1

    Default call with atc here? bodog 100k

    I have folded down to 4xbb due to terrible cards and action in front of me, etc . Just moved to the table this hand so no reads. Depending on the action I think sometimes you are justified in calling with atc. But given these circumstances I am not so sure what to do.

    Bodog 100k Guaranteed. Blinds: 200/400 Antes: 25

    UTG: 4.4k
    CO: 4.2k
    Hero is BB (1.6k)
    ***HOLE CARDS***
    Hero is dealt [6c4h]

    UTG raises to 4.4k and is all in
    4 folds
    CO calls 4.2k and is all in
    2 folds
    Hero??

    My problem is that utg's range has to be fairly tight since he has 11xbb. The CO's range should be even tighter since he stacking off vs. the utg all in. I imagine that at least one of them has an overpair if not both of them. I am getting great odds to call, but am terrible vs. their ranges according to pokerstove if utg is 88+, AQs+, AQo+ and CO is TT+, AKs, AKo.

    What do I do here?
  2. #2
    I don't think that these guys will be playing ranges as tight as you give them. Just for the exercise, I loosened them both up to 55+,AJo+ and ran your 64o. Poker stove gives you about 18% to win. Did the math on the pot, given that you would be the side pot, I have you getting about 5 to 1 (assuming I did the math right). That works out to needing 16.7% equity to justify, so you're on the plus side of close.

    That said, I don't take the shot and try to triple up here. Even tho you don't have fold equity, the antes are small enough where you've essentially got a whole orbit to find a spot to shove. I'd much prefer waiting and hoping for a situation where I could be first in with some live cards, or pushing over a limper ... anything that gives you better than 18% to stay alive.
    On moving up, properly rolled:
    Quote Originally Posted by drmcboy
    You don't know if you're J-Fish or A Fish until you try.
  3. #3
    I agree, your ranges are a bit tight but it's still a fold. People will fold sometimes to a 4x shove and getting HU is much better.

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