15 left in a 4.40 180 man

[hlester25]

whats ur move? no real reads

PokerStars Game #18587610164: Tournament #94472744, $4.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level XI (400/800) - 2008/07/04 - 20:40:21 (ET)
Table '94472744 6' 9-max Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: augesauce (18405 in chips)
Seat 2: IUsux (20420 in chips)
Seat 3: cbprince (21641 in chips)
Seat 6: X-llant (29700 in chips)
Seat 7: pizzamialno (4975 in chips)
Seat 8: AMEC04 (14499 in chips)
Seat 9: 23011971 (38837 in chips)
augesauce: posts the ante 75
IUsux: posts the ante 75
cbprince: posts the ante 75
X-llant: posts the ante 75
pizzamialno: posts the ante 75
AMEC04: posts the ante 75
23011971: posts the ante 75
cbprince: posts small blind 400
X-llant: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to AMEC04 [7d 7s]
pizzamialno: folds
AMEC04: raises 1800 to 2600
23011971: folds
augesauce: folds
IUsux: raises 17745 to 20345 and is all-in
cbprince: folds
X-llant: folds
AMEC04 has timed out
AMEC04: ????????????

[drmcboy]

with the price I would guess the call is about break even, you are 42/57 vs top 10%

I would just fold pre flop, because this spot is meh and getting smooth called also sucks

[hlester25]

pretty laggy opponent here.

PokerStars Game #18588679849: Tournament #94471621, $4.00+$0.40 Hold'em No Limit - Level XV (1000/2000) - 2008/07/04 - 21:43:57 (ET)
Table '94471621 3' 9-max Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: wickeddeal (153301 in chips)
Seat 3: AMEC04 (50863 in chips)
Seat 4: cadence13 (65836 in chips)
wickeddeal: posts the ante 200
AMEC04: posts the ante 200
cadence13: posts the ante 200
cadence13: posts small blind 1000
wickeddeal: posts big blind 2000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to AMEC04 [As 8s]
AMEC04: raises 3430 to 5430
cadence13: folds
wickeddeal: calls 3430
*** FLOP *** [5c 9c 5h]
wickeddeal: bets 10000
AMEC04: ??????

[Phantaroth]

1st hand - fold, this spot is very very marginal, and you don't need to call in a marginal spot with the stack sizes and blind situation.

2nd hand - fold. If you don't fold things get tricky. If you don't fold, I think you have to push.

[hlester25]

1st hand - fold, this spot is very very marginal, and you don't need to call in a marginal spot with the stack sizes and blind situation.

2nd hand - fold. If you don't fold things get tricky. If you don't fold, I think you have to push.

I folded the 1st one and went on to win the tourny. I pushed the 2nd one and he called with the nine.

[drmcboy]

fold 2 because it costs a lot more to be wrong and if he has the draw he's calling and may even have an ace too.

[dthorne04]

in hand no. 1, i would raise less than 3.25x, there's no need to do so. you can raise to 2000 (2.5x) or so, and that yields more profit over time.

but as it goes, you should fold, because he's probably not gonna shove with that stack, with two big stacks behind him, with anything that you're ever better than a flip against.

[drmcboy]

yeah good catch, 2k much better in hand 1, makes it an easier fold too

[hlester25]

yeah obv I regret pushing with the A high in hand #2. I kind of went with my gut and was just wrong.

As for raising to 2000 instead of 2800 in hand #1... I totally know where you are coming from, and the majority of my PF raises are 2.5-2.8x the BB. However, I kind of have a different approach to stealing pre when I am lagging it up pretty good ITM of these 180 mans. I don't like to raise the same amount PF every time I open the pot. I've noticed that I seem to get played back at more often when I open for the same amt, say, 3 or 4 hands out of 10. When I very the bet amount a little (sometimes I will go 2.1x BB, sometimes I'll go 4x the BB) I seem to get away with more late in tournies. I had opened 2 out of the previous 4 or 5 pots and I took the blinds. I could tell that someone was getting ready to play b ack at me. I think if I mix up the PF amount sometimes it gets the opponent thinking and maybe is a little less liekly to play back with a marginal hand. Also, I seem to have better reads in these situations when I raise different amounts. I really felt that if I raised it a little mroe than normal with the 77 in EP, it would take a good hand to come over the top of me. All in all, I felt this was an easy fold, that maybe wouldn't have been so easy(at least for me personally) if I had opened for the same amount. This strategy has worked well for me... any thoughts?

[dthorne04]

well, i understand your reasoning for wanting to open more, but in this case, i truly think it's best to stay the course and just open for 2.5x for 2k, instead of opening for 2800, and it comes down to pure math.

due to antes being kind of smallish on stars, profitability of preflop steals/pfr's goes down. so essentially you're opening to 2800 with the pot being 1725 preflop, which isn't very profitable for you in the long run. whereas if you just open for 2000 (which most times will work just as well as 2800, while keeping the pot smaller, which is desirable a lot of the time) you get closer to the 1:1 ratio, which means your pfr/steal will have to work only 1 out of 2 times to be worth it.

also, more times than not, raising above 3bbs here won't really deter players from making a play back at you, it might make them want to sometimes as if you've been aggressive, they might think you're full of shit.

</ramble>

[hlester25]

well, i understand your reasoning for wanting to open more, but in this case, i truly think it's best to stay the course and just open for 2.5x for 2k, instead of opening for 2800, and it comes down to pure math.

due to antes being kind of smallish on stars, profitability of preflop steals/pfr's goes down. so essentially you're opening to 2800 with the pot being 1725 preflop, which isn't very profitable for you in the long run. whereas if you just open for 2000 (which most times will work just as well as 2800, while keeping the pot smaller, which is desirable a lot of the time) you get closer to the 1:1 ratio, which means your pfr/steal will have to work only 1 out of 2 times to be worth it.

also, more times than not, raising above 3bbs here won't really deter players from making a play back at you, it might make them want to sometimes as if you've been aggressive, they might think you're full of shit.

</ramble>

I see your point for sure. I think it has more to do with me personally having faith in my reads. When I go on a little streak of LAG, I always tend to think the player is making a move on me when I raise it 2.5xBB every time. Maybe its just me but I tend to make better decision on the tail ends of these LAG streaks if I vary my PF amount some. Keep in mind pretty much the onyl time I dont raze 2.5-2.8x the BB is when my image is loose and I really dont want any action, but I still have a decent hand. If I had gotten AA in this spot I would have def. razed 2.5x BB and been very excited for some action.

[drmcboy]

you're saying you're going to raise more when you will fold to a shove.

Even if no one picks up on it in the end I think you're just giving away chips on average. I don't see what 'reads' have to do with anything, you're just guessing whether people think the big raise means a weaker or stronger hand. Since they are also guessing (hopefully, if they pick up the pattern it's even worse) you just end up folding with a better price.