$12 - TT facing a raise, giving too much credit?

[mukaka]

In these kind of situations I believe I'm respecting the opponents too much.. What range do you put him on here and what do you do? I had two similar hands with AQ later on so what would you do if you had AQo?

Full Tilt Poker Game #7057012302: $11 + $1 Sit & Go (Turbo) (53645262), Table 1 - 50/100 - No Limit Hold'em - 12:24:19 ET - 2008/07/02
Seat 3: dkingkoopa (3,850)
Seat 4: mafiozi1422 (2,590)
Seat 6: aimar08pl (2,630)
Seat 7: DetroitMike50 (3,180)
Seat 8: 123D (1,250)
aimar08pl posts the small blind of 50
DetroitMike50 posts the big blind of 100
The button is in seat #4
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to aimar08pl [Ts Td]
123D folds
dkingkoopa raises to 300
mafiozi1422 folds
aimar08pl has 15 seconds left to act
aimar08pl folds
DetroitMike50 folds
Uncalled bet of 200 returned to dkingkoopa
dkingkoopa mucks
dkingkoopa wins the pot (250)
The blinds are now 60/120
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 250 | Rake 0
Seat 3: dkingkoopa collected (250), mucked
Seat 4: mafiozi1422 (button) didn't bet (folded)
Seat 6: aimar08pl (small blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 7: DetroitMike50 (big blind) folded before the Flop
Seat 8: 123D didn't bet (folded)

[FlyingSaucy]

These are borderline situations that depend a lot on both stack sizes and your knowledge of villain's opening range in that position. I tend to fold AQ to an ep raise from an unknown. TT is equally problematic with less than 20 M.

With this TT situation if you had a little more in your stack I would flat it pre and play for set since you are oop. Bad thing is that it's an exploitable strat if mid/low PPs are the only hands you flat pre from the blinds.

[oskar]

What would be the point of playing this for set value? You can't really expect to get any value, even when you make your set, right. Assuming that you don't know the player.
If I expect the villain to c-bet the flop I would probably fold. Against a weak or loose player I would probably call. Without any information on the player this is an easy fold IMHO.

[taipan168]

Considering stack sizes, I would call here and play for set or overpair value. Both Villain and us are relatively deep stacked, we can win more than 10x the chips we need to call if we do call so we almost have set implied odds - and add in the times we flop an overpair and I think I call here.

[givememyleg]

at least call and see a flop, if villain is agro im shoving

[Sprayed]

I like either a fold or a shove. You can 't call and see a flop for set value due to your stack. I think that AQo would play the same. If they guy is raising a lot, I shove. Ubber tight, I fold. I'd probably tend to shove regardless in an MTT with TT, and shove over an agro with AQo and fold AQo to a tighty in an MTT.

[taipan168]

I like either a fold or a shove. You can 't call and see a flop for set value due to your stack.

Hang on, he needs to call 250 and he can win almost 2800 chips - so strictly speaking he doesn't have set odds but add in some overpair value and we're OK to call here I think. Admittedly I am not overjoyed about being OOP, but I think we can make the call here.

[givememyleg]

i'm not playing tt just for set value here

[FlyingSaucy]

What would be the point of playing this for set value?

With this TT situation if you had a little more in your stack I would flat it pre and play for set

As implied, I clearly would not play TT for set in the OP situation. If you had more chips and can put villain on a range and style that will play aggressively post flop, then you can play TT for set effectively without regards to playing TT for the value it affords without the potential for set.

Without the deeper stack, an argument could still be made to call pre. Of course only part of the support for the argument in terms of EV comes from the chance of set. The rest comes from your odds of being ahead of his range when the flop comes all unders, while still extracting value from an aggressive bettor. I figure check/call line on this particular flop would be feasible for value. If he fires again on the turn you have learned you are more likely to be up against a higher pp and need to readjust his range and take appropriate action based on the bet sizing and your commitment level to the pot.

[drmcboy]

it's five handed, I shove all day here vs unknowns. The problem with calling is you lose most of the value from your hand. If you're going to lead out or CRAI on a 892 flop it doesn't even matter that you have TT and you'd rather have JT or T9 when you get called. If he's going to stack off on this board with 77 he'll do it pre anyway.

[oskar]

As implied, I clearly would not play TT for set in the OP situation.

Sorry, I misread that.


I don't quite get what the idea behind shoving would be in this situation. There are very few donks still alive that you would be ahead of if they should call - I mean really ahead, not "he still has to hit it" - ahead, and the fold equity stuff isn't that exciting either. Plus you still got players behind you to act.
If I have no read on the player, and he makes an OOP raise to 5xBB, I respect that. I would expect him to show aggression from the button, and not MP1.
I usually play very aggressive in sng's, but never in this position without a reason. I raise about 30% of my hands with 5 people left, and TT would not be ahead of my range in this situation.

[drmcboy]

TT is WAY ahead of 30% (it's a bit ahead of 10%). It's even better because he'll fold some flip hands like KJ and may call with some dominated PPs.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

3,626,659,872 games 0.005 secs 725,331,974,400 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 63.677% 63.24% 00.44% 2283698001 15842106.00 { TT }
Hand 1: 36.323% 35.88% 00.44% 1295866923 15842106.00 { 55+, A2s+, K5s+, Q7s+, J8s+, T8s+, 98s, A7o+, A5o, K9o+, Q9o+, J9o+, T9o }


---

[oskar]

Well, I'll have to reveal my pathetic sng strategy to make my point. I do raise 30% of my hands, but that's because I pretty much raise any 2 on the button and SB if nobody limped, and from the BB if the SB completes, as long as they don't fight back too much. If someone limps 80% of his hands, I'll simply ignore his limp. Regardless. I would never make that raise out of position with less than AJ.
So, against me it would be a bad shove. Since you're the guy with 6000+ posts, I'll just assume you're correct though
(no sarcasm)

[drmcboy]

You're oversimplifying. What PPs would you raise with? What will you then call the shove with?

I don't know why you say "OOP", he is in the CO, he's in position against 2/3 people left to act.

[oskar]

I overlooked that he was on the CO... These hand histories really confuse me.

What PP I would raise depends so much on the table. I really hate small PP's in situations like this. I would probably still raise 88, but basically I have to bluff on the flop, and I can't play back to aggression. I would definitely raise TT but would have a hard time calling a shove if I'm getting less than 2:1. It's not in any book I've heard of, but I'd much rather raise KQ, QJ in that spot because they are so much easier to play post-flop.

It looks like most of you are assuming the villain is a maniac. There are just as many tight ass bitches at these stakes.
Even if you just call here... an overcard will hit... - I don't know the number... 70 / 80% of the time, and you'll have to fold to a continuation bet. You could play back, but you're risking a considerable amount of chips while you have plenty of time and chips to wait for a better spot. That's why I said earlier It's really crucial to know how many of his hands he raises in what position, and if he usually bets the flop.

To the OP: AQ I would shove. With TT you don't really want to see:
JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, Kj, JQ
With AQ you just have to worry about:
QQ, KK, AA, AK
And you have all the very popular Ax variants in bad shape. Against TT they're also just 3-outers but only with a 2-card redraw. add a couple of % for straight and eventual flush probability to AQ, and you'll end up with a number that I can't calculate. I'm sure there's a chart somewhere.

[oskar]

I would really be careful with making big reraises against aggressive players. If you push all-in here he's archieved one of the things he wants, and that is making you go apeshit with mediocre holdings. - I am not talking about this particular hand, just extremely loose-aggressive players. Just because he's raising a lot doesn't mean he'll call a lot. If you are playing aggressive you're picking up a lot of blinds, and you're basically on a freeroll for hands like this. 300 chips, that's just the previous 2 blinds he picked up.
I am not a particularly good player. I've been up and down a lot, and I know it's not the best thing to do, but it's really the main reason I enjoy this game... making people do stupid things. I can raise every 3'rd hand on a 5nl table and still stay dead even for half an hour, and eventually I'll get a generally solid player to donate his chips with top pair and no kicker. It's certainly not my most +EV game, but it works, and the swings are not that terrible since I only commit a couple of BB at a time and won't stack off until I have a really good hand.

[drmcboy]

To the OP: AQ I would shove. With TT you don't really want to see:
JJ, QQ, KK, AA, AK, AQ, AJ, KQ, Kj, JQ
With AQ you just have to worry about:
QQ, KK, AA, AK

If you're 'worried' about the flip hands with TT you have to 'worry' about them with AQ as well. If he's calling a shove with QJ, he's calling with at least 88+.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,448,609,184 games 0.005 secs 289,721,836,800 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.576% 46.99% 00.59% 680642940 8551968.00 { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, ATo+, KJo+, QJo }
Hand 1: 52.424% 51.83% 00.59% 750862308 8551968.00 { TT }


---

3,315,020,544 games 0.005 secs 663,004,108,800 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.184% 40.66% 04.52% 1348026572 149817740.00 { 88+, ATs+, KJs+, QJs, ATo+, KJo+, QJo }
Hand 1: 54.816% 50.30% 04.52% 1667358492 149817740.00 { AQs, AQo }


---

[oskar]

Makes sense. Still, with the number of hands that might call you that are just a 3:4 dog -
For AQ:
KJ, KT(?), JT(?!)
For TT:
any A

And the number of hands you have dominated - Ax with AQ and 88, 99, 77(?), 66(?!) with TT, I still think it would be correct to shove with AQ, and continue with caution with TT.
Although I must admit the hand is starting to look better.

[taipan168]

Hmm, reading the discussion I can well see the merits of shoving over. Somehow it seems weird to me since we have 26x BB. If we had 15x BB or less (or maybe even ~18x) I would have no problem shoving over but we seem a bit deep stacked. That's not a good counter argument to the ones detailed above however.

[drmcboy]

don't get me wrong, I'm not fist pumping, I just think it's better than any other option. On the upside, if we had shallower stacks he'd call with KJ+ for sure, here we may even fold AJ which will all be mistakes, hopefully that makes up for spots we are crushed.