200NL: fold KK?

[jimmy44]

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
9 players
Seat 1 is the button
Seat 3: BB ( $162.05 USD )
Seat 7: UTG ( $40.00 USD )
Seat 5: Hero( $204.88 USD )
Seat 8: MP1 ( $228.65 USD )
Seat 10: MP2 ( $225.25 USD )
Seat 6: MP3 ( $211.84 USD )
Seat 9: CO+1 ( $190.50 USD )
Seat 1: CO ( $164.00 USD )
Seat 2: Button ( $101.35 USD )
Seat 4: SB ( $162.00 USD )

Converter

Pre-flop: (9 players) Hero is UTG+1 with K K
UTG folds, Hero raises to $8, 6 folds, BB raises to $24, Hero calls.

Flop: 4 8 4 ($49, 2 players)
BB bets $30, Hero

villain was 8/4/3 over 200 hands.
I don't think there's a point on 4bet him, if we do, I believe we have to fold to a shove (which I think it's bad).
I was calling mostly for set value IP. FLOP is good as following his stats I don't think he is doing this with less then AA, KK and maybe 5% with QQ or AK.
I believe that we should find a fold in this situations. Calling is bad as we would have built a 50BB pot and fold to a 2barril. Raising is worst as his main range is KK+.
For me this would be:
fold > call > raise

Any comments?

[Fnord]

villain was 8/4/3 over 200 hands.

I'm seeing a turn card.

I'm all about making good reads and not playing for stacks against this guy without the nuts, but your hand is strong enough to give some action here and still expect to have the best of it.

[pokerfan]

all-in. There's no reason to not believe that you have the best hand here given his medium-stack status. Dude, i cant stress enough that 200 hands means nothing in this game.

[jimmy44]

villain was 8/4/3 over 200 hands.

I'm seeing a turn card.

I'm all about making good reads and not playing for stacks against this guy without the nuts, but your hand is strong enough to give some action here and still expect to have the best of it.

200 hands it not enough, but an 8/4/2 guy will not often have as a normal style 13/8/2 (what I believe would be a style I would have 4bet/call shove).

The problem if we call is that the pot will become $109 and villain would have $110 left! Let's say a T comes on TURN. Villain bets $70, we fold, that's OK. But if he bets $30 ? do we call? and if so the RIVER pot will be $169 and villain's have $80 left! If villain checks on TURN, do we check? If so and if villain bets $30 on a blank RIVER do we call?
Actually, I believe it would be a very tricky situation where we might profit a small portion of the time.

Given villain's stats, I believe here it's a WA/WB situation and you need to make the pot as small as possible, which is not possible with villain's bet. He may indeed have QQ/AK a small portion of the time, but we'll play a big pot most of the time if we call.

[jimmy44]

all-in. There's no reason to not believe that you have the best hand here given his medium-stack status. Dude, i cant stress enough that 200 hands means nothing in this game.

You can eventually do this vs a more LAG villain and get called by worst. But with this kind of villain, I don't think we get called by anything than KK+

[badgers]

all-in. There's no reason to not believe that you have the best hand here given his medium-stack status. Dude, i cant stress enough that 200 hands means nothing in this game.

lol wat?

[pokerfan]

i dont mind stacking off here with KK vs 80BB stack, seriously. Also, any cooler cards coming out on the turn will kill any actions. i've seen lots of weird stuff from these stats over 200 hands. On the other hand, if you have 500+ hands logged in your database, you might think very differently, certainly not here.

[badgers]

even if you are willing to stack off pushing is not the way to go about it at all.

[pokerfan]

he only got 80BB , so he would definitely call off with JJ+ or AdKd. Our push looks like a flush draw bluffing line or any lower over pairs.

even if you are willing to stack off pushing is not the way to go about it at all.

[jimmy44]

he only got 80BB , so he would definitely call off with JJ+ or AdKd. Our push looks like a flush draw bluffing line or any lower over pairs.

even if you are willing to stack off pushing is not the way to go about it at all.

Good! But do it against a LAGGier villain. A 8/4 might even fold QQ!
Villain was positional aware so he definitively doesn't 3bet JJ here.

[d0zer]

Even a 8/4 NIT is probably 3-betting a wider range than AA.

So we call pre to get more value from JJ/QQ/AK, and can't fold now. I wouldn't hate sweating a turn & putting him in then. He's drawing to at most 2-3 outs.

[Deanglow]

minraise the flop and get it in

[jimmy44]

Even a 8/4 NIT is probably 3-betting a wider range than AA.

So we call pre to get more value from JJ/QQ/AK, and can't fold now. I wouldn't hate sweating a turn & putting him in then. He's drawing to at most 2-3 outs.

Man he was raising 2% of hands EP! Can he really 3bet JJ+,AK if I raise EP?
Calling pre was not with the intention of stacking off on a low flop. This might be the case against a LAGGier villain.

minraise the flop and get it in

So you have his range on JJ+,AK?

[Deanglow]

I have his range at hands that you are ahead of and minraising gets him to put it in with most of it.

[Fnord]

minraise the flop and get it in

[jimmy44]

My bad!
I've played more hands with villain and his stats after around 600 are 11/7. I Should have 4bet PF!

[badgers]

I Should have 4bet PF!

ummmm no

[d0zer]

My bad!
I've played more hands with villain and his stats after around 600 are 11/7. I Should have 4bet PF!

That's one of the reasons I said he was probably 3-betting wider than KK+...rarely is someone actually gunna be an 8/4 nit, even if you've got him at that over 200 hands.

I've made the mistake of assuming 'too nitty' due to similar stats over similar samples.

[elipsesjeff]

Even against an 8/4 I like shoving this flop. His calling range of a shove is certainly more than whatever his 2 barrelling range on the turn is, or even his bet/3bet AI range on the flop.

I've shoved this flop and seen a nit call with AK high before; because its a paired board they're more likely to think you're making a move and will then call you with less.

I'm definitely not folding, ever.

[Bradley]

Personally, I couldn't and wouldn't fold this ever.. then again I'm not as experienced as you, but if I'd lose to AA here I wouldn't mind it THAT much. It'd be a cooler.

[jimmy44]

I Should have 4bet PF!

ummmm no

Thinking a bit about it again, maybe calling IP would not be bad against this guy

And thanks all to remind me how uber ultra nitty I can be!!

[herschelw]

call in position is fine. Call flop is fine. Also there is a Cbet% stat in PT that you would find really helpful here.

[BankItDrew]

Calling and raising are both good preflop.

If taking this calling of the 4bet preflop line, i'm only calling this flop bet. The only card in the deck I'm worried about seeing is an ace, but we gain more value from weaker hands when we peel off a turn card that's less than a K.

[Deanglow]

minraise the flop and get it in

oh quiet you. i swear it works