5NL - should I have seen this coming?

[ponyboy]

***** Hand History for Game 7206037795 *****
$5 USD NL Texas Hold'em - Wednesday, July 09, 12:57:23 ET 2008
Table Table 165116 (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: x__Ronald__x ( $5 USD )
Seat 2: ddrogue ( $5.13 USD )
Seat 4: yanGobonGo ( $5.52 USD )
Seat 5: cryptobeen ( $6.04 USD )
Seat 7: kniferok ( $4.66 USD )
Seat 10: Progesteron ( $4.92 USD )
Seat 6: ponyfitness ( $6.06 USD )
Seat 8: ZAndrLv ( $4.94 USD )
Seat 3: Mr_Huckle ( $4.94 USD )
Seat 9: Gernny ( $4.64 USD )
kniferok posts small blind [$0.02 USD].
ZAndrLv posts big blind [$0.04 USD].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to ponyfitness [ Qs Ks ]
Gernny calls [$0.04 USD]
x__Ronald__x folds
ddrogue raises [$0.08 USD]
Mr_Huckle folds
yanGobonGo folds
cryptobeen folds
ponyfitness raises [$0.16 USD]
kniferok folds
ZAndrLv folds
Gernny folds
ddrogue calls [$0.08 USD]
** Dealing Flop ** [ Kd, 5d, 8h ]
ddrogue checks
ponyfitness bets [$0.24 USD]
ddrogue calls [$0.24 USD]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6s ]
ddrogue checks
ponyfitness bets [$0.50 USD]
ddrogue calls [$0.50 USD]
** Dealing River ** [ Qc ]
ddrogue bets [$0.04 USD]
ponyfitness raises [$0.20 USD]
ddrogue raises [$0.56 USD]
ponyfitness calls [$0.40 USD]
ddrogue shows [ 8d, 8s ]three of a kind, Eights.
ponyfitness doesn't show [ Qs, Ks ]two pairs, Kings and Queens.
ddrogue wins $2.95 USD from the main pot with three of a kind, Eights.

I raised his preflop minraise to isolate villain. He had been minraising with trash over the previous 50 hands and always folding to aggression post flop, which I guess should have set off my alarm bells when he called my flop bet. I put him on a weaker king like K8 or above but not three of a kind. Then when he minbet on the river I assumed he wasn't sure of his hand, probably didn't raise enough but he likely would not have folded anyway. I also did not consider 55 in my evaluation but since only 55, 88, AK and KK had me beat to the river I figured my odds were good.

[badgers]

Just remembered this one got no replies.

There are loooaaaads of mistakes in this hand, sorry.

PREFLOP - I guess you have no stats on him but your read suggests that he is very loose preflop. Stats would help me here as I'm essentially a robot, but given that read I would be happy to take a multiway pot in position w/ KQs. Folding is ok to. I would not 3bet, however, if I did choose to 3bet I would raise by a lot more. 3x in position, 3.5x oop is my normal rule, howver this is 5nl so it should probs be a bit more, so remember 3.5x in position and 4x OOP. So, If I was going to 3 bet it would be to around .28, .16 is weaksauce.

FLOP - Pot is .42 and you bet .24. This is too little, build a pot.

TURN - .50 into .90 is weak again, there are draws out there bet like a man.

RIVER - Actually I would have lost more on this hand but whatever. You raise to .20 which gives him ~one million to one odds on the call. You should base your raise sizes on the size of the pot not on what his bet was.

Basically I think you played the hand OK but you need better reads than what you provided. Work on developing reads/ cheat and buy PT.