200nl river decision

[gametight]

First limper is a weak passive begging to be isolated.

Cold caller in the blinds is unknown but has some loose passive stats in the 25 or 30 hands I have on him.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $2 BB (9 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver)

saw flop|saw showdown

BB ($190.75)
UTG ($228.10)
UTG+1 ($271.15)
MP1 ($100.70)
MP2 ($345.10)
MP3 ($37)
Hero ($229.80)
Button ($22)
SB ($191)

Preflop: Hero is CO with Q, 9.
2 folds, MP1 calls $2, 2 folds, Hero raises to $10, 1 fold, SB calls $9, 1 fold, MP1 calls $8.

Flop: ($32) 3, Q, T (3 players)
SB checks, MP1 checks, Hero bets $24, SB calls $24, MP1 folds.

Turn: ($80) J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $48, SB calls $48.

River: ($176) Q (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $109, SB calls $109 (All-In).

Final Pot: $394

At the time I felt like the river shove was good... but looking back Im wondering what worse hands are going to be calling me here. I guess this could be standard. Thoughts?

[daven]

pre-flop nice.
Flop standard.
Lightness of turn bet is interesting - thoughts? It doesn't chase away any draws, it doesn't provide any info, it does bloat the pot with a weak hand.
River. He's not folding any queens, and the only queens in his range have you beaten. He's not calling with any busted draws. I doubt he's folding AK. He may call TJs?
check river behind. He looks a lot like AQ.

[pokerfan]

i isolate with any broadway cards & Ace sooted instead of Q9. As played, i'd check behind on the turn for pot control and call some medium size bet on the river.

[badgers]

yeah i think you made your mistake by not checking turn, as played we gotta shove this river.

[wufwugy]

i dont like the iso. punishing limpers is a misunderstood concept. punish them with hands that beat their range, not hands that dont. Q9s beats their range if they are huuuuuuge donks, but not if they're standard donks. this change alone makes the hand colossally easier to play

[gametight]

Playing raised pots, in postition, with hands that flop well, versus bad players is VERY +EV. I really think not isolating here is leaving money on the table but to each his own I guess.

Looking back I think I like a turn check... it would suck to get check-raised off my tp/oesd. I was trying to get some value from flush draws and kJ, possibly AJ. Guess I need to check one street somewhere on the turn or river. I just hate playing pot control against loose passives.

[pokerfan]

if you are on the button, it might be a little bit +EV to isolate with Q9. CO?

[gametight]

Whats the difference? I know my raise is going to buy the button most of the time. Also I wouldnt make this play if there were certain tough/aggro players on the button or in the blinds.

Im pretty suprised more of you arent actively trying to isolate bad players with a VERY wide range in situations like this.

[Keilah]

I'm with Gametight on the iso raise.

Check behind turn.

[aka_red]

lol im the only one here who has a differnt line than everybody.

i love iso. generally speaking ill do it with better than q9s id rather do it with qt but it really a marginal differnce.

i know this is gonna sound fucking crazy as shit.

I CHECK THE FLOP.

[Fnord]

I love the iso until the other players wise up and start 3-betting you light, which happens so rarely even at 6 max.

If you're betting the flop + turn for value you must have a very low opinon of his calling range.

[badgers]

flop check doesn't sound crazy but seeing as they're both loose/ passive and there are many draws I would rather bet. vs more aggro opps I like your line more.

[Renton]

preflop is fine/standard. Your hand IS strong enough to limp, but not so much so that limping would be better. I don't think I really have a limping range in this specific spot though.

Turn seems bad seeing as you are only valuebetting the draw part of his range, and no better made hand folds, no worse made hand calls.

River is a check, seeing as no worse hand calls, and tons of better hands are in his range.

[aka_red]

flop check doesn't sound crazy but seeing as they're both loose/ passive and there are many draws I would rather bet. vs more aggro opps I like your line more.

i think this is retarded now obviously you shouldnt always check this but if u want to charge draws which you are SO SURE he has which im not really sure is the case. but you end up bloating the pot without actually knowing where you are. just because tehy are passive does not mean they are retarded. most would however agree that an agressive approcah is the way to go however. there are plenty of good players that play passivley. given most passive players at these stakes are not good. but to say they will be stacking off with worse is a pretty bad assumption vs an unknown. id want to see it before i tried to stack him with a hand as marginal as q9 here.

[Renton]

redzill a flop bet is probably best seeing as we can easily fold to a raise and our showdown value plummets 3-way on lots of turns

[wufwugy]

you guys are not syncing up your logics.

if Q9s is an iso here then this is also a value bet on turn. if its not a value bet on turn then you shouldn't be isoing with Q9s.

[aka_red]

redzill a flop bet is probably best seeing as we can easily fold to a raise and our showdown value plummets 3-way on lots of turns

oops its multiway

alos wuf i think yor wrong because you are using his range preflop to determine if it is a valuebet on the turn. instead of using his flop c/c range. so it is entirly what you percieve the range/read for you to
determine if it is for value.

[Fnord]

if its not a value bet on turn then you shouldn't be isoing with Q9s.

Most of the value comes from him not being able to take much heat (pre-flop and flop fold equity) and setting him up to mistrust us so later when we do have a big hand he gives us his stack because it's already established that we're FoS.

Playing our hand at face value is plan B. He's probably pretty terrible anyway so when we do have to go with plan B we'll see some pretty funny hands/lines.

That said, I really like a hand like Q9s over like 56s because we will want to showdown a pair on the cheap every now and then, particularly if he's stubborn. Domination is a vastly over-rated concept.

[Renton]

wuf wtf are you talking about

what correlates the preflop strength of a hand to the ability to value bet it on a QJTss for two streets?

[wufwugy]

wuf wtf are you talking about

what correlates the preflop strength of a hand to the ability to value bet it on a QJTss for two streets?

if Q9s is ahead of villains limp/calling range (preferrably not just 'ahead' but plays well vs it) then we can value turn since he will have many worse pairs or pair+draw, which he aint folding. if we cant value turn then its clearly because we're behind his range which means that we were behind his range pf. so then pf was not for value. this doesn't negate other factors like how often we make money when we didn't have a hand and didnt see a showdown or when we make more/lose less due to position. how influential those factors are, i do not know, but i do know that range is first and foremost. i am more inclined to not put money in when im behind in equity.