200NL: TPGK against station

[jimmy44]

Party Poker
No Limit Holdem Ring game
Blinds: $1/$2
10 players
Seat 1: UTG ( $242.60 USD )
Seat 2: UTG+1 ( $200.00 USD )
Seat 3: MP1 ( $40.20 USD )
Seat 4: MP2 ( $213.10 USD )
Seat 5: Hero ( $277.29 USD )
Seat 6: CO+1 ( $201.10 USD )
Seat 7: CO ( $194.90 USD )
Seat 8: Button ( $220.50 USD )
Seat 9: SB ( $42.00 USD )
Seat 10: BB ( $217.80 USD )
Converter

Pre-flop: (10 players) Hero is MP3 with K Q
5 folds, Hero raises to $8, CO folds, Button calls, 2 folds.

Flop: Q 3 2 ($19, 2 players)
Hero bets $14, Button calls.

Turn: 4 ($47, 2 players)
Hero bets $33, Button calls.

River: 9 ($113, 2 players)
Hero ???

vllain was 41/2/2 folds 60% to c-bet. No specific reads apart from the fact that he seemed to be slightly aggro on RIVER. My thoughts here were that villain should be an enough station to call a bet of about $65-70 on RIVER with a worse hand. So my feelings here would be to bet $65-70 (folding to a shove obv) as we would be giving away too much value by checking. I don't know if this villain would be enough bluffs on scary RIVER if checked to.
Comments?

[badgers]

your plan sounds goot.

[daven]

ok, he folds to c-bets a bunch. He didn't fold, suggests he has either some piece of the board or a draw. Ranges don't help much pre-flop, 41% is almost any two cards = loads of queens and loads of two clubs hands.The board is super drawy and he isn't scared of the draws completing - so probably not a set.
Flush draw hit on river, which isn't good if that's what he's drawing to.
I block bet river - fold to a push. Block something like $50, there isn't really that much you're ahead of - but checking is horrible and I think worse hands will call.

[elipsesjeff]

its either b/f or c/f, i'm leaning towards b/f for 1/2 pot or so.

[jimmy44]

Thanks for the commets guys!

[Ltrain]

I'm confused. If our read is aggro on the river and he is a 2 APF and 40 VPIP, why not check call the river to also induce bluffs?

[elipsesjeff]

I'm confused. If our read is aggro on the river and he is a 2 APF and 40 VPIP, why not check call the river to also induce bluffs?

what could he possibly have on this river that he would turn into a bluff? Most players if they have a pair are going to check behind and we'll lose value.

[Fnord]

60% fold to c-bet suggests he has a piece of this.

Given that he's stabby on the river, c/c doesn't suck. b/f is standard.

[jimmy44]

The thing if villain is a bit aggro on RIVER (not huge aggro) he does not bet here a lot on this river. Plus the fact that I showed a lot of strenght would make him check behind often.

[Ltrain]

I'm confused. If our read is aggro on the river and he is a 2 APF and 40 VPIP, why not check call the river to also induce bluffs?

what could he possibly have on this river that he would turn into a bluff? Most players if they have a pair are going to check behind and we'll lose value.

At 40%VPIP he may bluff a missed diamond flush draw or a mid pocket pair, which would make it a bluff in this situation with the Queen on the board. If he has Q,10, Q,J, with an AF of 2, I would expect him to bet for us on the river.

If the pot was smaller, I would favor a bet fold, but if we bet and he pushes, we may be priced in to call anyway, or at least hate ourselves for creating such a large pot we just gave away by folding on the river.

[badgers]

I don't think he's got a diamond draw that frequently since there was only one diamond on the flop and I also doubt he's turning a midpair into a bluff here often as fishies are scurred of flushies and he has SD value.

[pokerfan]

just bet a little more than your turn bet against these donkey unthinking players. No need to bet too much or c/c on the river imo