AJs, facing a suspected blind steal $6.50

[Nakamura]

The villain's raise looks so much like a blind steal here. He is a bit loose as well, although I can't remember him open-min-raising before. I suspect a semi-good hand here, but is this a good spot to be re-stealing? It seems like to me we have good fold equity and enough money in the pot to justify our resteal, I'm just a bit concerned that the unusual bet means a monster for this player. Also there is no history of attempting blind-steals to consider here.

EDIT: Later on in the tourney he min-raised QQ and played them really passively post-flop, so I'm guessing the fold above was a reasonable play.

[35/60]
##########################################
Poker Star Game 19085650646 / Tournament
Table 97853711 1 - 25.07.08 - 10:47
Blinds : 100/200
##########################################

7 players
[SB] chipking33 (2105)
[BB] helenm (1765)
[1] Lucks_me (2480)
[2] davai (2455)
[3] Pino04 (2065)
[4] RulerOfAll10 (640)
[But] Hero (1990)

Hero A J Initial Pot: 300

Lucks_me folds
davai folds
Pino04 raises to 400
RulerOfAll10 folds
Hero folds
chipking33 folds
helenm folds
Pino04 hide cards
Pino04 wins 700 from the main pot

[givememyleg]

EDIT: Later on in the tourney he min-raised QQ and played them really passively post-flop, so I'm guessing the fold above was a reasonable play.

but this is cheating, you didn't know that when the hand happened

i am putting all my chips at risk here

[Nakamura]

I'm not sure. I just got the feeling I was up against a good hand here. I did consider attempting a re-steal, and I probably should have. In these situations I find my reads are usually pretty good. To what extent are we relying on our instincts here or what a poker book says we should do?

[Ryski]

Instincts > Poker Book always imo. Poker books can show you examples of making moves and high percentage steals but it can't tell you when and who to steal against!

[Im_new]

Against his first min-raise and with the micro stack in my SB... I think I can find a fold... I'm shoving AQ+, 99+ which should be WELL ahead of his range. If he makes this min-raising a habit... I'm opening up to AT+, 77+.

[Deuce Blue]

Instincts > Poker Book always imo. Poker books can show you examples of making moves and high percentage steals but it can't tell you when and who to steal against!

I agree. This is a situation where you could shove and it not be a bad call, or folding (if you got that feeling) I don't believe is bad either. Sometimes you gotta go with the gut I think.

[givememyleg]

ya just play by feel from now on and you'll be fine

[Deuce Blue]

ya just play by feel from now on and you'll be fine

Or always go with math and be a bot.

[Im_new]

I vote for math! Instincts are faulty and not needed too much at these stakes.

[Rage2100]

I think I push all-in here. This could be a monster, but usually it isn't.

[taipan168]

I would typically fold here unless opp was a serial open min-raiser. Assuming opp calls your shove with 8% (66+, AT+) then he would have to be raising wider than about 23% (22+, A2+, KJo+, K9s+, QJs) to make shoving over +EV.