AQ, Hero gets strange reraise $6.50

[Nakamura]

Hero is dealt AQ in the sb and has too much equity to shove into the bb, so just standard raises bb. BB pushes right over the top. The question is with what?? It seems obvious it was a hand he didn't want a call with, but what is his range here .... small PP or Ax? I would seriously doubt this is a call for us here, so I folded rather than risk my whole tournament.

EDIT: I noticed later in the tourney he is pushing his whole stack in (2800 chips) with blinds 100/200.

[29/93]
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Poker Star Game 19085598919 / Tournament
Table 97853739 1 - 25.07.08 - 10:42
Blinds : 50/100
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5 players
[SB] Hero (2480)
[BB] MacerPT (2515)
[1] CliffNotes (3295)
[2] nolliee (1215)
[But] long diamond (3995)

Hero Q A Initial Pot: 150

CliffNotes folds
nolliee folds
long diamond folds
Hero raises to 300
MacerPT is All in
Hero ??

[givememyleg]

this is kind of a hard spot, but i don't think i'm folding.

[taipan168]

OK, the ICM on this is as follows:

- If you fold you will have 2180 chips worth 17.5% of the prize pool
- If you call and win you will have 4960 chips worth 32.3% of the prize pool
- If you call and lose you are out.

Therefore, you need to be (17.5/32.3) = 54% to win against opp's range to make this a good call. Considering it's blind v blind, you have a read that opp is somewhat aggressive and he shoved over rather than 3-betting less than all-in, he could be doing this with quite a wide range. Run a few likely ranges through Pokerstove and see what you get.

[mikeneron]

If opponent is only making this move with the top 5% of hands:

128,422,800 games 0.005 secs 25,684,560,000 games/sec

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 45.031% 38.21% 06.82% 49071408 8759079.50 { AcQs }
Hand 1: 54.969% 48.15% 06.82% 61833233 8759079.50 { 88+, ATs+, KQs, AJo+ }

If opponent is only making this move with a bit wider range:

273,968,640 games 0.005 secs 54,793,728,000 games/sec

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.495% 49.56% 03.94% 135772349 10787774.00 { AcQs }
Hand 1: 46.505% 42.57% 03.94% 116620743 10787774.00 { 22+, A7s+, KJs+, A8o+, KQo }

Unless you can put your opponent on a range looser than this, I guess this is a fold as hard as that is to do...I think you made the right play.

[Im_new]

good fold.

[mukaka]

BvB random people play too weird.. I think we can add some more offsuit kings, some suited broadway cards, I think this is a call..

[taipan168]

Stack sizes are really relevant here, if either one of you had 15x BB rather than 25x I think it would be an easier call.

As played, I think I'd only call if I'd seen opp re-steal very light previously.

[Nakamura]

Stack sizes are really relevant here, if either one of you had 15x BB rather than 25x I think it would be an easier call.

As played, I think I'd only call if I'd seen opp re-steal very light previously.

Agreed, considering stack sizes here I don't think there is any way a call is valid here, unless as you say opponent has a history of re-stealing (which was not the case).

[TLR]

B2B in the 6.5 I call this anyday