99 is too light here, right?

[Nakamura]

99 is too light to call, right? Villain has not opened from this position before.

[95/105]
##########################################
Poker Star Game 19165574816 / Tournament
Table 98506360 1 - 28.07.08 - 14:15
Blinds : 300/600 - Ante 50.0
##########################################

4 players
[SB] Hero (2710)
[BB] billye2 (3965)
[1] miracolix50 (3050)
[But] klou13 (3775)

Hero 9 9 Initial Pot: 1100

miracolix50 is All in
klou13 folds
Hero folds
billye2 folds
miracolix50 hide cards
miracolix50 wins 4100 from the main pot

[taipan168]

Tough spot. If opp had been shoving every hand I would definitely call, but if he/she hadn't been a pushbot I wimp out and fold.

I ran this through SNG Wiz and if opp is shoving 15% or wider and BB calls pretty tight, it's a good call. 15% is 33+, A7o+, A4s+, KTs+ so it's quite read dependent.

[mikeneron]

With blinds of 300/600, I think this has got to be a call.

[Nakamura]

I folded and nearly blinded out ... I think I'm behind here, but I'm not sure I can afford to fold either since another orbit puts us in serious trouble. I might be wrong here but I believe the villain is pushing something like TT+ and AQ+, which makes this a tough decision IMO

[Ryski]

I doubt his range is that tight. Blinds are HUGE which opens his range up quite a bit even if it is the bubble. I snap call here at that blind level assuming this guy is adjusting his play as blinds increase, else I fold if he hasn't been adjusting.

I folded and nearly blinded out ... I think I'm behind here, but I'm not sure I can afford to fold either since another orbit puts us in serious trouble. I might be wrong here but I believe the villain is pushing something like TT+ and AQ+, which makes this a tough decision IMO

[BennyLaRue]

I might be wrong here but I believe the villain is pushing something like TT+ and AQ+, which makes this a tough decision IMO

What gives you that impression? Consider where you are in the tourney. Everyone's Ms are tiny. Any hand worth playing is a push and, on the bubble like this, you'll see ranges open up. A middling Ace is a push. A small pp is a push. Also, steals with ATC are a push if the player is aggressive.

I call that.

[drmcboy]

this again is why you should play MTTs, because if everyone is folding two nines my guess is shoving ATC will show a HUGE profit, but if he's shoving ATC you should call with two nines.

[Nakamura]

I think the issue here is a lack of adjustment from the villain. He has shown no intention of raising mediocre hands or any sign of aggression. I'd be surprised if he was pushing light here. It's perhaps nitty but I think I'd rather get my chips in with ATC than in this spot

[Nakamura]

this again is why you should play MTTs, because if everyone is folding two nines my guess is shoving ATC will show a HUGE profit, but if he's shoving ATC you should call with two nines.

Could you explain the MTT logic? I'm not sure I follow what you mean here.

[drmcboy]

Cashing in a MTTs is not nearly as important as it is in a SNG so you can worry a lot less about crazy bubble guessing games like this one and just default to the correct chip EV play. Also we would already be ITM so you're comparing one payout to another vs 0 to something. And in most MTTs the payout differences for 1-4 are much greater than they are in STTs.

[fjuanl]

The huge prize pool gap between ITM and OOTM in 1-table Sngs forces you to play pretty nitty (4th= 0%, 3rd=20%)...whereas in MTT's the first to get paid get around 1% of the prize pool. If this was the final table at an MTT this would be a fist-pump instacall

[BennyLaRue]

I think the issue here is a lack of adjustment from the villain. He has shown no intention of raising mediocre hands or any sign of aggression. I'd be surprised if he was pushing light here. It's perhaps nitty but I think I'd rather get my chips in with ATC than in this spot

This is where pulling PT or SharksScope stats during play would help.

If opp is a winning player, assume he knows the fundamentals of an effective push game. Absent any other read, I call a winning player here every time.

If opp is a break-even or losing player, more information might be required by way of table reads. But I'm still probably calling this against all but the tightest of players.

The key for me is the somewhat even stacks. If either of the other two players are really short stacked, I don't call here. If BB has a huge stack, I don't call here.

[Rage2100]

I think I would have to call this with the blinds so big.