My first ICM Calculation...please evaluate

[rvrking22]

Situation: $5 SnG on the bubble, hero is facing all in push by button....Action goes: Cutoff ( Chip leader) folds, Button ( fourth in chips..aka villian) pushes, Small blind ( Second in chips ) folds, Big blind (aka..hero..third in chips) Fold or call push?

Hero dealt: [Ad 5h]

Blinds: 100-200

Payouts: 1st- $25 2nd-$15 3rd-$10

The stacks are:
Cutoff- 5937
Button- 2286
Small blind- 4475
Hero (Big blind)- 2302

Before the hand, here is how equity is split up:
Players Chips Equity
cutoff 5937 $19.79
button 2286 $7.62
Small blind 4475 $14.92
Hero ( Big Blind) 2302 $7.67

Call push and lose ( -$7.61)
Player Chips Equity
cutoff 5937 $19.79
button 4672 $15.57
small blind 4375 $14.58
hero( big blind) 16 $0.06

Call push and win (+$7.96)
Player Chips Equity
cutoff 5937 $19.79
button 0 $0.00
small blind 4375 $14.58
hero (big blind) 4688 $15.63

So we are risking $7.67 to potentially win $7.96

using the ratio of ( risk/winnings)/( total equity/winnings)
to get the percentage needed by a hand to win against a random hand to make this call +$ev

So ($7.67/$7.96)/ ($15.63/7.96)
So (.963)/ (1.963)= 49.1%

This means are hand needs to win at least 49.1% of the time to make this call +$ev...

Ad 5h against any random hand has 57.697% equity

making this a clear call....

How is my math? I hope this makes sense and im starting to get the hang of ICM...

Just to throw in a wrench, villian is playing semi passive and has been playing tight over the last maybe 10-12 hands....does this mean that we ignore the ICM and put villian on a better opening range or do we still abide by ICM and call?

And if we do ignore ICM then were also ignoring a +$ev situation (provided my math is correct) which means were making a mistake, but since were on the bubble does that mean its ok to ignore this +$ev situation? Hope this is making sense and somebody can check the math and then determine what we would do in these other situations..

Thanks in advance

rvrking22

[elitemob]

I think the math is just fine, except for one small detail: You cannot assume villain to push with ATC, you have to use his estimated pushing range! That's the key If A5o wins more than 49.1% against his pushing range, then calling is +$ev. There are a lot of tools out there that can help you determine your winning chance against a hand range. Finding out his pushing range is your job to estimate of course

BTW: are you playing on PS? B/c there are only 9 players in the SnG's there, which would change the payout structure and the equity of each stack (the ratio will stay the same of course)

[rvrking22]

No I play at cake poker..oh and im giving villian a pushing range of
22+,A2s+,KJs+,A2o+,KJo+ maybe even a little bit more than that but I cant see him pushing anything but those hands...

So the equity of my A5o vs. his pushing range = 39.928% making this a clear fold....how does that hand range look against a semi passive tightish villian ?

[taipan168]

Your calculations look mostly correct, however rather than "equity before the hand" you should look at "equity if you fold" in which case the stack sizes would be:

- CO: 5937
- BTN: 2586
- SB: 4375
- You: 2102

...the difference being that Button just stole the blinds if you and SB fold. This is the equity that you should be comparing to the equity you would have if you called the push and won rather than the equity before the hand.

One other thing, when you're left with 16 chips if you call and lose and will be AI next hand due to the SB, I usually just ignore this equity since you're pretty much dead. It simplifies the calculation.

[Sakuraba]

is it possible for people to actually do this calculation during a hand? or is ICM just for post-analysis?

[elitemob]

I suppose you cannot do the calculation itself while in a hand (just imagine finding out the chance of winning against a hand range) without software/computer help. But I guess after a lot of experience you'll get a certain feeling or have run enough calculations afterwards to allow making an educated guess.

[mikeneron]

I bet this guy could do it on the spot...simply amazing. He should take up poker

http://www.discoverychannel.ca/shows...=4611&sid=4399

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgd9oI_9FU8

[taipan168]

is it possible for people to actually do this calculation during a hand? or is ICM just for post-analysis?

No, it's for post-game analysis. By understanding which situations are +EV and which are -EV, you can make better decisions when similar situations arise in future games (ie. it helps hone your "instinct").

[rvrking22]

Thanks for giving me that suggestion taipan....I'll start doing it if I were to fold instead of "before the flop"...oh and how many hands to you analyze with ICM, I went through all of my SnG that involved the bubble and 3 handed play...do you go about it the same way? Or do you just pick a hand that you werent sure on?