$5 - If you were villian here

[mikeneron]

Decided to mix it up here and post a hand from the villian's perspective.

Hero has been playing really tight, so the raise preflop probably means a good ace or pocket pair. Villian has also been playing tight. Only the big stack has really been raising much preflop, other players have been playing pretty conservative.

Put yourself in the villian's shoes:
1) Are you calling this preflop?
2) What are you doing on the flop if you do call?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t200 (4 handed) Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: FlopTurnRiver Cards)

Button (t2535)
SB (t3935)
BB (t4340)
Hero (t2690)

Preflop: Villian is SB with , .
Hero raises to t500, 1 fold, SB calls t400, 1 fold.

Flop: (t1300) , , (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t700, SB???

[Illfavor]

1- I am very rarely calling this.
2- I dunno. I should do the math, but you prolly should play. I'm still bad at this part :P

You're getting 1.86:1 with both bets, right? Odds of getting FD, and Pot odds?

[elitemob]

This is weird (but fun) way to turn this around.

I wouldn't call PF. On the flop: I would fold ... 18% chance of making the flush on the turn, that's 1:5.55, you only get 1:2.43 (for you Illfavor: 700 to call, 1700 in the pot already, so 1700/700) pot odds for the call. Even with implied odds this doesn't work (villain winning hero's stack if he hits his flush card on the turn) ... this would be 1:4.14 (700 to call to win the 1700 + remaining stack of about 1200, so 2900 total ... 2900/700). So ... that's a clear fold to me. BTW: can I use the pot odds calculation for implied odds just like that? Would make sense to me.

Did I get that right? Please someone recheck, it's late and I'm going to crash now.

Cheers,
elitemob

[JKDS]

villain isnt playing tight if he is calling raises with Q7s when the raiser is also playing tight. Im folding pre because there are two stacks that are shorter than me and the bubble is approaching. If i did call, this would be one of the flops id be hoping for and i push flop. I never check, as any good sized bet from hero gives then would make him unlikely to fold to our crai. So, i fold to this bet.

[Illfavor]

If, once you've made the bad call, you shove the flop, your putting in (if he calls) 2290 to win 5880, which is 1.57:1, right?

Odds to make the flush by the river, 1.86:1, eh?

No call, correct?

My head hurts. I'd probably be a lot better if I brushed up my odds calcs.

[taipan168]

As the others said, I would never ever call preflop.

If I did make this bad call, what I did would depend on reads on the raiser in this hand. If the raiser (ie. OP) had been tight, I would shove over here knowing that he can't call without a monster hand and even if he does, we still have decent outs unless he has a higher flush draw. If the raiser had been a loose calling station I would fold to the bet.

[Im_new]

I just noticed something weird about "seeing things from the villain's perspective." Essentially, we aren't seeing anything from an alternative perspective because we're acting as if "we are villain" which makes us actual as "hero" under a different title. If you posted as generic hero, showed us the villain's route, and asked what hands would we take villain's route with....then this would be from villain's perspective. (I thought of this by swapping the names Hero and Villain in the hand above. It read the same. This is only because we can see "Villain's" hand.)


Anyway,

I agree with Taipan here. No call preflop. Shove flop if he's tight. Fold flop if he's loose. The only thing I'd consider more heavily are the stakes of the game. At any table $11 or below, you'll have to be more careful because "hero" would call a shove with A2+ and other hands like 66+ that higher stakes players can generally get away from. At a low stakes table, he'd have to be pretty damn tight for my shove over.

[mikeneron]

Just trying to change things up a bit man...get people to think outside of the box.

So if your opponent is tight and you push over his bet with the flush draw...they can only call with a monster you say...so I am gathering any ace would be classified as a monster in this hand?

[JKDS]

maybe, but if hero calls and loses hes out so he needs a hand in order to call our push. @ illfavor, if we push and he only folds 10% of the time, its enough to make this +ev. But, since its bubble and hes out if he loses, the actual % he folds is likely to be much higher baring the images of hero and villain
or so me thinks

[kmind]

1: fold pre
2: lead flop. fold if he is tight and push if he is loose...wtf opposite of taipain wtfffff

[elitemob]

I think you're just thinking differently:

Tai would push against tight, b/c if he doesn't have a monster he'd fold and you take down the pot maybe 80% of the time, since a tight player won't gamble.
tai would fold against loose b/c a loose guy will be calling your push increasing the chance of bubbling out.

While you are like:
You won't push against tight, b/c if he calls you're most likely behind and bubble out. But if you fold you won't have lost many chips.
You will push against loose because you'll get called by worse hands and even though you may be sucked out on you have a good chance of doubling up and ending the bubble.

I hope I correctly got into everyone's head *laughs*

[taipan168]

While you are like:
You won't push against tight, b/c if he calls you're most likely behind and bubble out. But if you fold you won't have lost many chips.
You will push against loose because you'll get called by worse hands and even though you may be sucked out on you have a good chance of doubling up and ending the bubble.

I hope I correctly got into everyone's head *laughs*

The logic is slightly backward here. I would push against a tight player because he/she will fold a lot of hands that beat us (weak Ax, pocket pairs 66-KK, K high flush draw etc) and therefore doesn't call us very often meaning we steal 2000 in dead chips. I would fold against a loose player because he/she won't fold as many hands we beat. Also, there aren't that many worse hands that call us here, with the possible exception of lower flush draws and maybe OESD-type hands.

[kmind]

and my thoughts were the complete opposite of taipan's BUT looking at stack sizes I think it's tough for any sort of hand to fold. I'd say the stat I am most interested in here is cbet %. The higher, the more I'm inclined to raise etc.

[elitemob]

Ok, well I tried, at least I got it partially right

[kmind]

no no you did a good summary. I was just trying to state a point that with weaker ranges (loose players) we want to be pushing draws more and vs. tighter ranges we want to be seeing as many streets as possible for as cheap as possible showdown with a draw. But stack sizes are kind of awkward/small here. Anyways, again it depends on how tight "villain" 's cbet range is.