$10 SNG - tight opp shoves flop

[kevster]

I'm pretty sure he's ahead here but I have an up and down and an over. Anyone calling here?

Full Tilt Poker Game #7963465267: $10 + $1 Sit & Go (60553713), Table 1 - 40/80 - No Limit Hold'em - 17:09:09 ET - 2008/09/06
Seat 3: tuneboy1984 (430)
Seat 4: GeorgeMcSnoer (1,215)
Seat 6: sbedvek (2,365)
Seat 7: Brohambaby (5,440)
Seat 8: Rich1619 (1,590)
Seat 9: Wil_Phi (2,460)
Brohambaby posts the small blind of 40
Rich1619 posts the big blind of 80
The button is in seat #6
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to sbedvek [Jc As]
Wil_Phi folds
tuneboy1984 folds
GeorgeMcSnoer folds
sbedvek raises to 200
Brohambaby folds
Rich1619 raises to 640
sbedvek calls 440
*** FLOP *** [Td Qc 9h]
Rich1619 bets 950, and is all in
sbedvek has 15 seconds left to act
sbedvek has requested TIME
sbedvek ??

[mikeneron]

I'm probably folding this preflop in the early levels...for sure dumping after the reraise unless I have notes that he reraises with a weak ace.

[kevster]

I'm probably folding this preflop in the early levels...for sure dumping after the reraise unless I have notes that he reraises with a weak ace.

Yeah, I was interested in the re-raise. I think I call too often in these spots. I'm hardly ever dumping this pre-flop on the button 6 handed though.

As played?

[taipan168]

I think the open raise is absolutely fine when folded to on the button with AJ.

As played, I let it go pretty quick to the re-raise - apart from the risk of being dominated, opp just raised 40% of their stack, most of the time the rest of the chips are going into the middle on the flop.

On the flop, you have to call 950 to win 2270 so setting the ICM effect aside for a second you need to be 29.5% to win to make this a good call. Add in ~3-4% for the ICM tax and you need to be 32-33% to win. Assuming your OESD outs are all good you're about that already - plus there's a chance that aces are an out and I think this is a marginal call.

However, the real mistake was preflop, given opp's stack size, calling the re-raise means that you are now committed to call the flop in a pretty marginal spot.

[Illfavor]

What are we putting him on here that gives the ace as a true out? It seems like KK and JJ are the only hands he could have for this to be. So what's his likely range? If he has a set, we aren't getting the odds. If he has AQ, it's a marginal call. He said he was tight. He RR pre. Shoved flop. I just don't see the ace counting as 3 full outs...maybe like 1 on average. I'm putting him on something, so AQ (RR a little strong for this though, so prob less likely) AA-TT. I can't use pokerstove, but I think it's marginal even if he somehow shows us he has KK.

And def fold this to the RR pflop.

[kevster]

I think the open raise is absolutely fine when folded to on the button with AJ.

As played, I let it go pretty quick to the re-raise - apart from the risk of being dominated, opp just raised 40% of their stack, most of the time the rest of the chips are going into the middle on the flop.

On the flop, you have to call 950 to win 2270 so setting the ICM effect aside for a second you need to be 29.5% to win to make this a good call. Add in ~3-4% for the ICM tax and you need to be 32-33% to win. Assuming your OESD outs are all good you're about that already - plus there's a chance that aces are an out and I think this is a marginal call.

However, the real mistake was preflop, given opp's stack size, calling the re-raise means that you are now committed to call the flop in a pretty marginal spot.

Thanks Tai, this is real light bulb stuff for me - think I may have to print it out