top two vs aggro unknown

[daven]

villain is 30-20 after a few orbits and gives off an air of spew monkey - not sure why, something to do with bet-sizing and timing/lines so far at the table.

Sometimes 3-bet here is good, sometimes flatting, and my hand plays just as well if the blinds come along *they're not the squeezing types. Also, villain is likely to fold to a 3-bet - and I'm quite keen to see flops with him.

Flop seems like a flat is standard, then after his turn bet a min-raise is going to get him well attached to the pot. I figure his range when he pushes to be JJ+, AT, and I guess a taste of 55/99/TT/A9/A5...

thoughts?


Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($54.50)
BB ($97.60)
UTG ($59)
UTG+1 ($152.65)
MP1 ($101.85)
MP2 ($47.15)
MP3 ($52.45)
Hero (CO) ($60)
Button ($50)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 10, 9
2 folds, MP1 raises to $1.75, 2 folds, Hero calls $1.75, 3 folds

Flop: ($4.25) 10, 5, 9 (2 players)
MP1 bets $4.25, Hero calls $4.25

Turn: ($12.75) 2 (2 players)
MP1 bets $12.75, Hero raises to $25.50, MP1 raises to $89.25, Hero calls $28.50 (All-In)

River: ($120.75) 10 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Total pot: $120.75 | Rake: $3

[allabout]

I would normally raise the flop. Seems like there are a lot of turn cards that make you cringe. Also if he has like an overpair there's a lot of cards that could come that might make him slow down a little (maybe not if he's an aggromonkey). nh

[cardsman1992]

On a drier board flatting is good if you think you can get it in on a turn blank. However, on this board, he prolly doesn't fold an overpair so I am raising and snapcalling a shove.

[badgers]

seriously the flop call is anything but standard, this should be an easy raise.

[aka_red]

i think flatting is fine

[badgers]

i think flatting is fine

Please explain? We're so far ahead of his stacking off range on the flop it's ridiculous and there are tons of scare cards...? Given the pot sized bet (unless that's been standard) he's going to be 3bet shoving the flop a lot and we can insta-fistpump snap call and win money. Which part of that do you disagree with?

[aka_red]

for starters there are not a ton of scare cards. you don't know hell b/3b with a flush draw. he could just as easily b/c and c/f bricks. he will still stack off with made hands. making a 5 the only bad card for you. he will always bet the turn after u just flat. he will commit himself with flush draws with less equity than before. and you get a second bet out of air. if he would b/3b the flop with air than he will still do so on the turn vs a min raise.

basically a turn will very likely not change his stack off range or his willingness to stack off. and you will get another bet out of air. and you will always stack a flush draw. while you MIGHT lose some value vs an over pair. note he will still stack off with it if he has a heart and the turn falls heart. also if he has over cards it gives him a chance to catch up.

[spoonitnow]

I think 3-betting here ever against this opponent is bad.

I'm of the opinion that raising the flop is +EV. However, I think calling the flop is more +EV.

As for hearts on the turn, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, KhQh, KhJh, QhJh combined are as likely as AA by itself. It's really a non-issue, especially since he will miss most of the time and get in a bigger bet on the turn WAY behind.

A Jack on the turn is a bad card against KQ, but great against AK and AQ since it prompts a double-barrel with possible commitment (for this Villain) with four outs. An Eight on the turn is a bad card against QJ, but great against KQ and KJ for similar reasons. Any Ace, King, Queen are great cards for us for similar reasons.

The Fives suck against JJ+, but the chance that he has JJ+ AND a Five comes on the turn even less significant as a heart on the turn.

Against any Two, Three, Four, Six, or Seven, we give our Villain a chance to double barrel, picking up bets against high-card hands that we would probably not have picked up had we raised the flop.



In any case, basically any hand that stacks off on the flop will stack off on the turn.

[Fnord]

Put a note on this guy that he loves the bet pot button. Given that pot commits him on the turn, I don't hate flatting as much, but I would raise this flop every time.

[badgers]

Well I don't agree that you will "always bet the turn" again, and I have no idea why you think he'll call our flp raise then c/f the turn with a flush draw but you think he'll stack off with a FD if you raise turn. Also I think with daven's read there are likely to be more flush draws in his range making it much more of an issue. However, between the two of you you've convinced me a call isn't terrible, I would still raise though.

[Fnord]

WTF is with giving him credit for a flush draw?

He raised pre-flop, putting lots of pairs in his range along with big unsuited and some suited stuff.

I raise because so many turn cards will make an over-pair timid about getting it in.

[spoonitnow]

WTF is with giving him credit for a flush draw?

He raised pre-flop, putting lots of pairs in his range along with big unsuited and some suited stuff.

I raise because so many turn cards will make an over-pair timid about getting it in.

Imo, this is the biggest case for raising the flop.