100NL, Is a river bet necessary ?

[pokerfan]

villain is 16.5/14/4.4 over 203 hands. Do you guys consider betting anything or check down on this river?
PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (7 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB ($106.70)
BB ($60.20)
UTG ($66.60)
MP1 ($100)
MP2 ($95.50)
CO ($99.50)
Hero (Button) ($102.65)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, 9
1 fold, MP1 raises to $3, 2 folds, Hero calls $3, 2 folds

Flop: ($7.50) 3, 4, 7 (2 players)
MP1 bets $5, Hero calls $5

Turn: ($17.50) J (2 players)
MP1 bets $10, Hero calls $10

River: ($37.50) 5 (2 players)
MP1 checks, Hero ?

[daven]

check behind for value

[jimmy44]

He will not call with worst on that river card

[ATOTHEC101]

id definitely check.

[pokerfan]

He will not call with worst on that river card

i'm not saying that he'd call with worst. Do you lay down your TT, pair J hand or even QQ if i fire $28 at the pot ?

[badgers]

He will not call with worst on that river card

i'm not saying that he'd call with worst. Do you lay down your TT, pair J hand or even QQ if i fire $28 at the pot ?

So the turn call was a float or what?

[jimmy44]

He will not call with worst on that river card

i'm not saying that he'd call with worst. Do you lay down your TT, pair J hand or even QQ if i fire $28 at the pot ?

I think this bet will often get called by pair of J and QQ+ on the river with this action.
Actually, before I posted my comment I was thinking about QQ+ hands that check river here. In order to get those hands to fold you need to push here, however, pushing here it's kind of ankward as you'd be putting $82 on a $37 pot ... where you'll need for villain to fold around %70 of the time. Depends on which level villain's thinks on. If he thinks on the first level he might call. If he thinks on the second level (what does villain has) he might fold. But if he can read hands at all he knows that you are bluffing here (how often are you calling 2 streets with a gutshot or a set IP? the only possible hand is 76). So all-in all I believe the %70 is a lot.
I would prefer to raise turn to $25 and push river (if villain checks), but then again I prefer to do this with 22 or air.

[Fnord]

$12

I like money
I like a river bet

[badgers]

$12

I like money
I like a river bet

Isn't that waaayyy too thin seeing as there's only one hand we beat is calling and that could even fold to $12?

[Fnord]

We have the best hand here often. Don't give free showdowns. You will get called by AK/AQ because tight players often suck at post-flop.

[pokerfan]

We have the best hand here often. Don't give free showdowns. You will get called by AK/AQ because tight players often suck at post-flop.

i didnt give free showdown and bet way more than $12 The guy raised too much preflop and probably double barrel air here.

[elipsesjeff]

We have the best hand here often. Don't give free showdowns. You will get called by AK/AQ because tight players often suck at post-flop.

You bring up an interesting concept, although I think $12 is too much to expect bricked overs to call, esp after we called two streets.

This is a pretty standard spot for overpairs/two pairs/sets to check/call and hope you valuetown yourself in this spot. I think at most a bet of $8 could get called by the overcards but I doubt it. You might get called though by random 7's.

[Fnord]

Yeah, I'm used to 6 max where no one really has shit. When I play live, they don't have shit either because they're like Phelps at an all-you-can-eat breakfast bar.

The higher chance he's got an over-pair he bet like a sissy may turn this into a check behind.

[BankItDrew]

I'm checking behind

If you want to turn your hand into a bluff, bet a lot more than 28 on river. I recommend potting it or +

betting for value requires a decent read