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Handling Variance

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  1. #1

    Default Handling Variance

    What do you do? This is mostly a question about how bad do you have to do to stop playing before you usually do. About every other night I fire up 6 $6.50s and play 4 sessions, and there are times when I'm running bad that I just want to quite after the 1st session, and I was wondering how many of you do this. Going 0-6 is a great way to put a damper on your evening, but I don't really let it bother me stop. If you have a night where you run extremely bad (15% ITM or less) do you take any time off?

    My reason for this question is that I was thinking about variance, and wondering how it works as an abstract concept. When you're running bad should you play less? Or, in the grand scheme of things, does playing the same amount or perhaps MORE do you better because you will get through your downswings faster? Or, since you're more likely to tilt when running horribly, should you play less?

    Essentially I'm thinking of variance in a temporal way, and if there are things you can do to make it end faster.
    Ich grolle nicht...
  2. #2
    I look to see if my slump is affecting my play. Am I tightening up too much? Am I loosening up? Am I getting scared off hands? Am I starting to think it is rigged against me? Am I losing my confidence in my ability?

    If any of these things start to happen, then my variance (ie slump) is compounding, or snowballing, and I walk away. If I am taking my beats like a man, not making stupid plays and generally still playing my winning game, then I keep playing. I know the difference between when I am playing poorly and I am just getting very unlucky.
  3. #3
    I tend to keep playing as I know it can't last forever, but sometimes you do wonder if it will ever end. Frustrating to work through it, but I think it makes you a better player in the long run if you can handle these downswings without getting off your game.
  4. #4
    I try to look at my hand history files. If I'm playing OK and just getting the worst of it I'll continue to play. I'f I lost my "gamble" I'll take some time off.

    When you run hot look at how many times you won the 55%/45% flips with the worst of it. It goes both ways.
    It's not how many pots you win, it's what's in them that counts.
  5. #5
    Guest
    How often do you go 0-6? I haven't gone 0-6 yet... I've only played couple of hundred low stake SNGs so cashing in those isn't terribly difficult.
  6. #6
    If it gets to the point where you don't feel like playing and arent motivated to win, then stop for awhile. When your not focused on making the best decisions possible, you end up missing a lot of opportunities that you didnt even know about. Also, even if you think you are playing good, questioning yourself is never going to be a bad thing. Always been open-minded
  7. #7
    Quote Originally Posted by iopq
    How often do you go 0-6? I haven't gone 0-6 yet... I've only played couple of hundred low stake SNGs so cashing in those isn't terribly difficult.
    Only once, but 1-6 is essentially the same thing (unless the 1 is a win). Going 4-24 is not good, but it happens, and my ITM% is over 44% at this level, but there are always "those days."
    Ich grolle nicht...

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