umm.. wtf... fold??

[griffey24]

Hand 1
-this was a serious wtf spot.. and I have nooo clue
-This guy was a pretty big donk, running like 45/18 with an AF of about 2.7
-he was the type of donk that would always bet if you checked to him, and at the beginning of the session was raising a lot of flops pretty small from like 20 to 50, 30 to 70 etc etc
-he had not done this mega jam once... and this is a SERIOUS 200bb mega jam
-am I dumb for ever thinking about folding this?

$2/$5 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($1072.40)
CO ($2605.35)
BTN ($486.40)
SB ($1071.35)
Hero ($1111.00)

Pre-flop: ($7, 5 players) Hero is BB
UTG calls $5, 3 folds, Hero checks

Flop: ($12, 2 players)
Hero bets $7, UTG raises to $1067.40, Hero is mad confused ....


Hand 2
-Villain is mostly taggy, but gets more out of line preflop than anything. he 3-bets a ton (but folds to a lot of 4-bets generally) and squeezes a lot
-earlier in this sesh I flatted QQ in SB to button raise cause I knew he squeezes a lot, and he squeezed it from 15 to 60 and I made a tiny repop 4-bet to 130 and he jammed 600 with K8s and won with a backdoor flush
-he may think his image is bad with me, but its not really...
-flop c/c is kinda scary given how multi way it went and dry board... and now the turn c/r... best case scenario is split? or sometimes Kx spades I guess....

$2/$5 No Limit Holdem
6 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($1233.65)
UTG+1 ($163.40)
CO ($570.05)
Hero ($838.65)
SB ($1146.95)
BB ($568.00)

Pre-flop: ($7, 6 players) Hero is BTN
1 fold, UTG+1 calls $5, 1 fold, Hero raises to $20, SB calls $18, BB calls $15, UTG+1 calls $15

Flop: ($80, 4 players)
SB checks, BB checks, UTG+1 checks, Hero bets $55, SB calls $55, BB folds, UTG+1 folds

Turn: ($190, 2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets $125, SB raises to $280, Hero calls $155

River: ($750, 2 players)
SB bets $600, Hero to call like $470

[zook]

1. Ugh. Fold I guess. But vs. known megadonks I'm really tempted to call.

2. River's a fold, question is if turn is...

[Alexos]

1)Am I crazy for snapcalling this and triple fist pumping?

2)Yea i fold turn vs him if im playing well...idk

[griffey24]

1) Hand 1 I'm really not sure what I should be doing. I fist pumped, but I'm not sure if isn't closer than I first realized. It IS a 1k shove into $12 pot afterall.

2) I agree that turn is a fold to raise straight up. Even on the flop when he c/c I was suspicious with alarm bells going off about a set on such a dry board. I had the intention of folding to any further heat on future streets. The fact of the matter is me hitting the Q shouldn't really change this. There are very few two pairs he'd have, so any further action should still result in a fold, regardless of my turned two pair. Oooooh... if it wasn't so much easier said than done...

[dalecooper]

Hand 1 I'm really not sure what I should be doing. I fist pumped, but I'm not sure if isn't closer than I first realized. It IS a 1k shove into $12 pot afterall.

I don't think pot size has anything to do with it - you can ignore the pot and just consider if you have 50% equity vs. this guy. We don't know for certain what he does this with, but we do know a few things:

1. Generally, if he has a hand that beats you already (TT/T9 are both of them) then his shove is retarded. He has no reason to suspect you have better than a pair of tens or even a weak pocket pair, and no reason to think you'll call his shove. Not to say that he's not capable of retardation, but I wouldn't immediately guess that he had the nuts here - donks usually slowplay the nuts.

2. So what do donks not slowplay? Trips, overpairs, TPTK, and bluffs. I suspect that his range MAY have all of those in it - 9x, JJ-AA, AT, maybe JQ or 78. It probably doesn't include all of those but those are likely candidates. He might even be getting stupid with an underpair because he thinks he's good or he likes to bluff, although that's the worst kind of retardation I can imagine.

So - I'm fistpumping a lot and breaking my mouse button from the superfastultramegacall. If he has me beat, I take a note. And I root for my three outs to ride in, if he has T9.

[griffey24]

Hand 1 I'm really not sure what I should be doing. I fist pumped, but I'm not sure if isn't closer than I first realized. It IS a 1k shove into $12 pot afterall.

I don't think pot size has anything to do with it - you can ignore the pot and just consider if you have 50% equity vs. this guy. We don't know for certain what he does this with, but we do know a few things:

1. Generally, if he has a hand that beats you already (TT/T9 are both of them) then his shove is retarded. He has no reason to suspect you have better than a pair of tens or even a weak pocket pair, and no reason to think you'll call his shove. Not to say that he's not capable of retardation, but I wouldn't immediately guess that he had the nuts here - donks usually slowplay the nuts.

2. So what do donks not slowplay? Trips, overpairs, TPTK, and bluffs. I suspect that his range MAY have all of those in it - 9x, JJ-AA, AT, maybe JQ or 78. It probably doesn't include all of those but those are likely candidates. He might even be getting stupid with an underpair because he thinks he's good or he likes to bluff, although that's the worst kind of retardation I can imagine.

So - I'm fistpumping a lot and breaking my mouse button from the superfastultramegacall. If he has me beat, I take a note. And I root for my three outs to ride in, if he has T9.

Good analysis of a donk!

I agree that donks wouldn't slowplay overpairs and trips and stuff. Though I'm also not sure they'd bomb 200bb's here.

I think given that I have A9 its prob a pretty easy insta call, but I'm not sure what I'd do with Q9 here or J9... I'd have a headache for sure.

I insta called and he had T's full! UGH...running Aces one time!... no good.

I think donks show up with QJ/9x here enough that this call is still correct though. If I had a worse 9 though I'd probably fold though.

[zook]

Generally, if he has a hand that beats you already (TT/T9 are both of them) then his shove is retarded.

Huh? These are the only hands that make sense to shove with. Shoving 200bb as a bluff in a 2.5bb pot, now THAT would be retarded.

[pantherhound]

hand 1 is the sort of spot that would life tilt me because he would probably do this with most 9s, no?

[IowaSkinsFan]

Hand 1 I think your ahead 99% of the time.

Hand 2: In the heat of the moment i call but thinking about it more this is a set a gigantic amount of the time.

[dalecooper]

Huh? These are the only hands that make sense to shove with. Shoving 200bb as a bluff in a 2.5bb pot, now THAT would be retarded.

But it's a kind of retarded that you find all over internet poker. It's common retardation. I think bluffs are the least common hands though, I think donks do this most of the time with trips.

I actually think that shoving for 200 BBs with any hand here is retarded, but for different reasons depending on the hand. You're so deep that no matter what you have, a standard play is almost always going to be better. A 200 BB shove with the nuts probably works out fine in the long run, but I think it gets folds from almost every hand in hero's range except A9 and T9. A regular raise is probably more profitable, and if hero has a 9 a lot more money's going in anyway - why give him a chance to fold his weak nines? And if hero has A9 and T9 you're probably getting his stack whether you push or min-raise. There's just no need for the thermonuclear bet.

Unfortunate that he had it, but I still think he's capable of showing down worse here. And if he's not, I hope you made a detailed note on him.

[Deanglow]

Hand 1 I think your ahead 99% of the time.

Hand 2: In the heat of the moment i call but thinking about it more this is a set a gigantic amount of the time.

This

I snap 1 and if I'm not tilting fold 2 on the turn against most guys

[|~|ypermegachi]

i need to drill the analysis of hand 2 into my head because i probably make this mistake a lot. just because your hand improved does not mean it improved more than your opponent's range.

[seatown1two]

i need to drill the analysis of hand 2 into my head because i probably make this mistake a lot. just because your hand improved does not mean it improved more than your opponent's range.

ty 4 mentioning this, I need to be alot more aware of this also.

griffey - I wonder what this feels like and if I will ever experience this drawing almost dead on the flop for a $2000 pot. ouch.