$10 SNG - Odds situation

[kevster]

Some will hate my flop bet but I'm trying to stay aggressive and put my stack to good use. Some will hate my flop bet but it's a semi-bluff and again I'm trying to stay aggressive. Once he's re-raised, I have to call right?

What I'm really interested in is the turn decision. I need to put 600 into 2650 pot so I'm getting nearly 4.5 to 1. There's a ton of stuff that has me crushed so I guess it's a fold but I'd be interested to hear people's opinions.

Also, villain claimed AA afterwards. How close is this in Pokerstove?

Full Tilt Poker Game #8043840980: $10 + $1 Sit & Go (61178957), Table 1 - 50/100 - No Limit Hold'em - 15:22:22 ET - 2008/09/12
Seat 4: casta3232 (3,195)
Seat 5: sbedvek (4,055)
Seat 6: LONG 121 (1,095)
Seat 7: sweathog61 (4,120)
Seat 9: lanewalkerx (1,035)
lanewalkerx posts the small blind of 50
casta3232 posts the big blind of 100
The button is in seat #7
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to sbedvek [Qh Jd]
sbedvek raises to 250
LONG 121 folds
sweathog61 calls 250
lanewalkerx folds
casta3232 folds
*** FLOP *** [Ts Kc 2d]
sbedvek bets 350
sweathog61 raises to 700
sbedvek calls 350
*** TURN *** [Ts Kc 2d] [Kd]
sbedvek checks
sweathog61 has 15 seconds left to act
sweathog61 bets 600
sbedvek ??

[Ryski]

Yeah ... really really really bad flop bet here. Regardless of your reasoning, you have the potential to play a bloated pot vs the other big stack and spew chips/equity chasing a draw. Against any of the other players this bet would be okay and maybe even preferred vs the shorter stacks.

Anyway, since you are interested in the turn action I fold. I don't think an A that fills your straight can be considered a clean out so you are drawing to a 9? Yeah, I fold.

Anyway, that's my 2 cents.

[taipan168]

I sometimes just dump this preflop since you're UTG/HJ and there are two short stacks around against whom you will be almost priced in to call if they shove.

As played, considering the stack distribution I really do not like the flop bet, particularly with two broadways on board and against the other big stack. As played, you're getting almost 5:1 on the call the flop minraise so you're getting correct odds to call before even considering implied odds and even taking the ICM effect into account.

On the turn, you have to let it go. Even though you're probably getting correct chip odds to call to chase your straight, as Ryski said, all 9s and As are not necessarily good outs and there's always the chance you're drawing dead to a house at this stage. Plus, there's the ICM effect which is getting pretty severe - so I let it go.

As for how you fare against AA, you're smoked:

Board: Ts Kc 2d Kd
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 90.909% 90.91% 00.00% 240 0.00 { AA }
Hand 1: 09.091% 09.09% 00.00% 24 0.00 { QhJd }

[fjuanl]

You already have 40BBs so gaining the additional 150 from stealing the blinds is not really worth it. Plus 2 out of the 4 players left have 10bb stacks which means you'll be raise/folding to shoves. Flop bet is fine, even though its coordinated I think you rep the king well and the other 40bb stack wont want to get into big pots with marginal hands. I guess you have to call the minraise bc its a rainbow flop and your both still pretty deep. Turn is a check/fold since some of your OESD outs might be dirty, despite good pot odds

[kevster]

I was all for agreeing and chalking the flop bet up to experience until fjuanl's post.

[taipan168]

Flop bet is fine, even though its coordinated I think you rep the king well and the other 40bb stack wont want to get into big pots with marginal hands.

Not sure that I agree with this - bubble factors are very high here (which admittedly also supports your argument that the other big stack won't want to get involved without a big hand), our hand has some value and it would suck to get raised off it.

[Rycky4Golf]

Nice responses, I'm glad a re-discovered this site.

This hand, I think I'm letting go QJo from the HJ/UTG spot, though I can see why others would play it. On the flop, since we did show strength pre-flop I think we have to make a C-bet, maybe about 350-400 or so.

If we check and the villain then takes control of the hand, are we going to call regardless of the amount, even if he bets pot? I know we wouldn't want to get raised off our hand but it would be worse to get bet off it, wouldn't it? I feel continuing to show we like our hand here would be the best option the majority of the time since our opponent could simply give up the hand to our own bet.

As played, he did raise us but gives us odds to see the turn, so we call. The turn card is horrible though and I think a fold is a wise move to that bet, it almost begs for a call by giving us better than 5:1 to see a straight that is likely already crushed. I think ICM considerations do take hold enough on the turn to give the hand up.

I am interested in know how some of you would play the flop if you are checking the draw here.

[caddie444]

Fold Pre, QJ UTG too marginal. I always dump here even 5 handed, especially since the big stack is on the button. I like your preflop raise size though.

As played check flop, that board will almost certainly interest your OP, and you don't want to build a massive pot with this hand considering the other stacks.

Call any reasonable bets on the flop. Call any reasonable bets on any non board pairing turn if you haven't already made your nut hand (So fold turn as played)

If a nine falls on the Riv, check raise his ass unless he checked behind on the turn.

If an Ace falls, bet out.

My 2 cents

[brian1175]

I think the 1 thing people are missing to mention is the "min re-raise". This is a big reraise, not big in the amount but big in that he only min re-raised....If he's a donk or a good player, your beat when they min re-raise post flop...fold after your c bet and call it a day.

[caddie444]

I think the 1 thing people are missing to mention is the "min re-raise". This is a big reraise, not big in the amount but big in that he only min re-raised....If he's a donk or a good player, your beat when they min re-raise post flop...fold after your c bet and call it a day.

It's a mistake to fold to his min-reraise on the flop.

Of course you are beat, but the pot is offering you almost 5:1,

and you are just over a 4:1 dog to hit the nuts on the turn, so call,

and try to bust him.

[taipan168]

and you are just over a 4:1 dog to hit the nuts on the turn, so call,

and try to bust him.

Umm, you're not necessarily drawing to the nuts. There's the possibility that opp made a full house on the turn and we're drawing dead, and there's also the chance that the pot will be split, etc. There's also the ICM effect which is quite severe of going up against the other big stack on the bubble.

[caddie444]

I meant that on the flop, after villian min raises, he is a 4:1 dog to hit the nuts on the next card, (ie the turn card) When that board pairs, its dumpsville.

[taipan168]

I meant that on the flop, after villian min raises, he is a 4:1 dog to hit the nuts on the next card, (ie the turn card) When that board pairs, its dumpsville.

Sorry, misread your post, I agree with you