Final 3 of $12 180 turbo

[Sprayed]

Chip leader has been very aggro and I felt that I could get him to fold and that I actually might be ahead of his range. Standard? Or should ICM be applied due to the short stack?

PokerStars Game #20462555492: Tournament #108622548, $11+$1 Hold'em No Limit - Level XVIII (2500/5000) - 2008/09/16 19:29:30 ET
Table '108622548 16' 9-max Seat #6 is the button
Seat 2: Sprayed (75489 in chips)
Seat 6: bestaatniet (162899 in chips)
Seat 8: dieudon666 (31612 in chips)
Sprayed: posts the ante 500
bestaatniet: posts the ante 500
dieudon666: posts the ante 500
dieudon666: posts small blind 2500
Sprayed: posts big blind 5000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Sprayed [Ac 8c]
bestaatniet: raises 10000 to 15000
dieudon666: folds
Sprayed: raises 59989 to 74989 and is all-in

[drmcboy]

looks good to me, i think your choice is just between stop n go and shove, I don't think you can fold. Since he's been raising a lot shoving seems better, you would hate to give him a free flop with 76s.

[chardrian]

You are ahead of his range - this is standard (or at least g00t).

[mcatdog]

Seems pretty damn marginal to me but I guess I'd go ahead and shove because if we win this we can take advantage of the 2nd place bubble just like the chipleader is taking advantage of it right now.

$EV of folding = $406
$EV of winning this pot preflop = $434
$EV of losing the all-in = $236
$EV of doubling up = $495

I gave him a raising range of top 50%, calling range of 12.5% against which we're 40-60

$EV of shoving is (.75)(434) + .25((.4)(495)+(.6)(236)) = $410.

One thing to be careful of is, if he had open shoved, you would DEFINITELY have to fold, and if he'd been open shoving a lot but suddenly raised smaller then he might be trapping with a big hand.