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Nice size raise preflop. On that flop I prob bet a little less, but no biggie.
When he calls the flop bet, I believe his most likely holdings to be 45, 78, A8, A4, 89, 44, (88 prob would have raised but we'll stick it in) or some club draw. Less likely are random hands containing containing 8's or 4's,random 6's or 5's, or complete air.
Turn brings 4 cards to the straight. He bets half the pot, which could mean a few things:
1)He's made his straight and is getting value
2)He has a set and is now protecting his hand
3)He is semi-bluffing a good scare card.
Now you have to ask yourself what are the likely-hoods of these options?
Of the hands I have put him on preflop, you are still beating A-8, the club draw, and most of the randoms. Against the rest, you have at most %18 equity (against 2 pair hands)
(I realize you may have some chop equity if he has set/2 pair, but since its small, we'll ignore it)
So, we'll say for arguments sake, %50 of the time he's bluffing/semi-bluffing, %50 of the time he has 2 pair or better.
Here we go:
Pot has 1580, I think are options are shove/fold obv. Hero has 1030 behind. So if we push the pot will have 3160 (Assuming villian calls). So we're getting 2:1 basically.
Option 1) When he has 2 pair or better, we'll be generous and say our average equity is %10. (Remember we could already be drawing dead)
equity is %10 x 3160= 316
Option 2) He is bluffing/semi-bluffing. We'll say our Equity versus this range is 75%. (Did a quick range on Pokerstove)
equity is %75 x 3160= 2370
Therefore our combined equities are
(%50 x 316) + (%50 x 2370) = 1343
since 1343 > 1030, we shove!
This hand becomes EV neutral when villain is bluffing/semi bluffing only
~%35 of the time.
So, you can now argue over whether you think he bluffs/semi bluffs this enough to be profitable.
I call.
Sorry for the long answer, hope it helped
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easy fold with over pair?
(380, 2 players)
(1100, 2 players)
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Originally Posted by brian1175
