go for thin river value on bad board?

[mcatdog]

Villain is apparently a small stakes regular, his OPR says he's played 5000 tournaments with an average buyin of $30 and has an ROI of 20%. Tournament just started so I know nothing else about him. I lost some chips two hands ago to a guy who check-called the flop with king high and got there on the turn in case anyone thinks that matters.

If you don't bet here do you bet A9?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $100+$9 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (8 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB (t3000)
UTG (t3000)
UTG+1 (t3020)
MP1 (t3710)
MP2 (t3000)
Hero (CO) (t2320)
Button (t3000)
SB (t2980)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9, 8
5 folds, Hero raises to t60, Button calls t60, 1 fold, BB calls t40

Flop: (t190) 8, A, 9 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t140, 1 fold, BB calls t140

Turn: (t470) 4 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets t320, BB calls t320

River: (t1110) 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero?

[drmcboy]

Yeah I'd put like 500 in. His line makes a lot of sense with AxXs and it's hard to think he'll be worried enough about the 7 to fold. Even without the spade he may think you have Ks9x and hopes you will fire once more but obv won't call if he bets.

[chardrian]

I think I fire here too.

I would worry a bit about TJ but I agree w/drmcboy that we get paid off by AxXs enough for the bet to have value.

[mcatdog]

He had A7o with the 7 of spades and I checked which I think was a mistake despite the results. Sometimes even if someone has decent OPR stats they're still terrible.