Bubble hand ($3.30 r/a)

[bjsaust]

Played one of these after getting motivated watching the WSOOP ME. Ran well, fairly card dead but the ones I played held up well. 20 paid, 22 left, I'm in about 9th position I guess. Villain is something like 20/20 but only over about 20 hands, this is the 2nd EP raise I've seen him make.

$800/$1600 No Limit Holdem
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG pedropablod ($5035.00)
UTG 1 JoeJacks ($19970.00)
MP1 psr06750702 ($49660.00)
MP2 CharlyZock ($15550.00)
CO EsquilaVillers ($28905.00)
BTN DJ911 ($11032.51)
SB Redstory ($19555.00)
BB Hero ($20265.00)

Pre-flop: ($2400, 8 players) Hero is BB
1 fold, JoeJacks raises to $4800, 5 folds, $3200 to Hero ($18665)?


Do I have enough FE on the bubble to push here, or just fold? With only a small sample of hands can I make an assumption like he could fold because of the bubble is is that being overly optimistic? What kind of calling range should he have if I shove, and what kind of calling range would you actually expect him to have?

[drmcboy]

if he were in LP it's an easy shove... meh I lean shove. How did things go when he raised before, did he get called, shoved over?

[Sprayed]

What do you think he is raising here with a 12bb stack from UTG +1 that you think he will fold to a shove? I would think 0. Most would just open shove their marginal hands and standard raise their monsters. I don't think the bubble matters in this spot. I would fold.

[bjsaust]

I think he was on the table for 20 hands and the hand he raised from earlyish he got all folds pf. I think stack sizes were about the same that time. For 20/20 stacks I guess that means he also made 2 LP raises that I hadnt paid much attention to in that time. There wasnt much shoving over going on at all, table was playing fairly passively.

[mcatdog]

What do you think he is raising here with a 12bb stack from UTG +1 that you think he will fold to a shove? I would think 0. Most would just open shove their marginal hands and standard raise their monsters. I don't think the bubble matters in this spot. I would fold.

I was going to say WAT. But then I realized you meant it's a fold even without the bubble, and the bubble just makes it an easier fold. You're probably right but you never know, people make some dumb folds on the bubble.

[drmcboy]

What do you think he is raising here with a 12bb stack from UTG +1 that you think he will fold to a shove? I would think 0. Most would just open shove their marginal hands and standard raise their monsters. I don't think the bubble matters in this spot. I would fold.

I think it's really close, we're 45% vs the top 20 so we can't be making a big mistake by moving in. That's why I asked what happened when he raised before, if he's gotten nothing but folds he'll often be ready to just give one up.

I do think it's a mistake to assume a small 3 rb unknown player understands position and stack sizes as well as you seem to be giving him credit for. Plenty of players would shove their good hands and bet/fold their bad ones, esp in EP since they don't want to get called in 3 places while they have KK and have to guess on the flop.

[chardrian]

Whatever you do is fine.

[Sprayed]

I don't think it's a bad shove. But, IMO, I don't think that he's folding and you're probably either dominated or flipping. Lately, I'm finding that most players aren't tightening up as much as they use too on the bubble. I'm also seeing a lot of short stacks standard raising with their whole range and calling shoves.

Yes, I'm not saying that I am folding because it's the bubble. I'm folding because I think that I'm beat.

[bjsaust]

Well, I decided since the bubble meant nothing to me (making 20th would win me about 50c) the chance he'd fold would make up for the amount I'm behind his calling range, but I wasnt sure of that. Sucks to go out now, but if he calls and its a flip I have a chance to go into a really nice position and set myself up for a run at the FT and some money that means something to my roll (1st was $280 I think), and if he folds thats 25% extra to my stack.

He called with 66 and I didnt suckout.

Felt borderline to me. I wondered if I overestimated his likelyhood to fold some of the bottom of his range. Then again the wider his range the better I seem to do v's it (unless hes one of these guys who sees any PP as the nuts but unpaired hands he's tighter on).

[mcatdog]

Well, I decided since the bubble meant nothing to me (making 20th would win me about 50c)

FWIW, the bubble should mean something to you. See the similarity between these two statements:

"The bubble means nothing to me, I'm playing for first."
"This reraise means nothing to me, I'm calling because if I hit a set I'll win his entire stack."

Trying to hit the jackpot, no matter what the cost is if we miss, this is how fish play poker. Because of the bubble, you don't gain as much from doubling up as you lose from busting; typically you need at least 55% equity vs your opponent's range to want to gamble on the bubble. You don't come close to that with your wired pair of fives, so this is a standard fold. Only a read that your opponent is abusing the bubble, which would give you a large amount of fold equity here, could turn this into a shove.

[bjsaust]

Hmm, I guess so. I thought one of the tenents of MTTs was to play for first and not worry too much about the bubble? I mean, this wasnt a 'no matter the cost' spot, at the time it felt about neutral EV play, which I guess makes it a fold thats true, but its not the same as say if he'd shoved and I called hoping to hit my set.

[KoRnholio]

Stop n go anyone?