Hmm.. marginal preflop? $30+3

[mxiu]

Villain is a solid winning multi-tabler.

PokerStars Game #20673519606: Tournament #110232945, $30+$3 Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2008/09/24 23:38:24 ET
Table '110232945 1' 9-max Seat #5 is the button
Seat 1: Hero (1440 in chips)
Seat 2: WSOPSeth (1265 in chips)
Seat 3: Bevo_69 (4045 in chips)
Seat 5: fourcardkeno (2380 in chips)
Seat 6: dartdiggler (1555 in chips)
Seat 7: sniperjtubbs (1395 in chips)
Seat 8: pok-o-dot (1420 in chips)
dartdiggler: posts small blind 25
sniperjtubbs: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Hero [Ad Kc]
pok-o-dot: folds
Hero: raises 100 to 150
WSOPSeth: calls 150
Bevo_69: folds
fourcardkeno: calls 150
dartdiggler: folds
sniperjtubbs: raises 1245 to 1395 and is all-in
Hero?

[TLR]

I think more often then not you are racing here, but I still think I fold it

[fjuanl]

At first I thought call but I don't think a regular is shoving much worse than TT+ AK+. Even with 1.5/1 odds you still can't call if thats his range. You could throw AQ in his range and justify a call, but imo hes showing up with AA more times than AQ

[drmcboy]

Even with 1.5/1 odds you still can't call if thats his range.

ICM tax?

[fjuanl]

didnt add that...AKo is 40% against TT+ AK...so you probably need a little more than 2/1 if you factor in ICM.

I still think this could potentially be a call because 'winning reg' doesnt always mean total nit. Some might see the dead money and shove pairs like 66-99 and maybe AQ especially if the flat callers have high vpip's. I think an average 10 tabling sng nit shows up with the tigher range tho (TT+ AK)

[mxiu]

Thanks, I ended up folding. Villain had QQ. I didn't even put TT in his range really. Figured it was JJ+/AK.

Actually TT is in there sometimes I suppose given the blind level.

[drmcboy]

Juan I was asking because your post confused me since we should call getting 1.5/1.

I hate how you assume winning player = nit, that is not included in the read.


mxiu it doesn't matter if TT is in his range or not. again, get pokerstove already.


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 59.608% 46.38% 13.23% 314459700 89723532.00 { TT+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 40.392% 27.16% 13.23% 184165620 89723532.00 { AKo }


---

554,786,496 games 0.005 secs 110,957,299,200 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 60.215% 44.09% 16.13% 244579488 89482674.00 { JJ+, AKs, AKo }
Hand 1: 39.785% 23.66% 16.13% 131241660 89482674.00 { AKo }

[mxiu]

I guess the question is if this is EVER AQ? Easy fold if there isn't, easy call if there is? Even if it is though, I don't think it shows up near as often as a pair.

[cowboyardee]

I guess the question is if this is EVER AQ? Easy fold if there isn't, easy call if there is? Even if it is though, I don't think it shows up near as often as a pair.

In a cash game, it might be. In a sit n go, from a winning multitabling reg, still relatively early, it's either never AQ or so seldom AQ that it doesn't make a significant difference. That is a fold, allbeit not a happy one.

[drmcboy]

it's def a level spot because if he thinks he can get you to fold AK, he's going to show a profit shoving a wide range here, pretty much anything that will play OK against the other callers just in case they get stubborn with 77. If you've played with him a lot and (you think) he knows you are a legit solid player I would be much more inclined to call, never seen him folding seems better.

[mxiu]

I've never played with him, but I checked his stats. I understand what you mean about his read on me.. I've been able to call some decent players shoves fairly light in certain scenarios. I just never really saw much of an edge on my side here in this case.

If we're sitting with TT it's a sure muck right? What about JJ?

[fjuanl]

How can you call when you have 40% equity and are getting 1.5/1? If you read my last post it says that it might be a call exactly for the reason you stated: winning player DOESNT = nit

[drmcboy]

60/40 is 1.5/1

I guess i am mis reading your post, apologies for the confusion.

[fjuanl]

whoops i sux at math

[drmcboy]

heh, that's why I asked if you meant with ICM rolled in because you seemed so confident it was a clear fold and I was feeling like I sucked at math because it seemed kinda close!

mxiu - http://pokerstove.com/ I will not enable your insanity anymore

[Rycky4Golf]

If you can definately put him on no tighter that JJ+/AK then its a call, though not a happy one. There is also always a small chance he figured he could make a move with something like TT or AQ (though not likely).

The biggest problem here is we still have two other players to act behind us that may or may not call, thus making or chances to win a little more difficult to guess. Depending on who call (and with what) might taint our odds.

If I could guarantee it was HU with the villain I'd take my chances and call.

[brian1175]

This is tuff, You definitly have to put him on aAA through 10 10 and maybe AK or minimum AQ.
Since the caller only called your raise I would not be worried at all, If you race 1 why not race 2 for 3-1 and most likely dominate the other.
I actually call this if I think the caller will call... I think overall I would call this...If you loose the race, fire up another....