$30-3 four-handed

[kstarm]

Opponet has been tight up until about 5-handed and now has started to loosen-up. I have been tight as well but my showdown hands have been some fortuante suited connectors for good price. I have been stealing lately. I don't think he would risk so many chips without something, but I don't know if it would be better than AJ here. Call or fold? If fold what do I need here to call?
Thanks in advance.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $30+$3 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t2075)
Hero (Button) (t3685)
SB (t4775)
BB (t2965)

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, A
1 fold, Hero raises to t600, SB calls t500, 1 fold

Flop: (t1400) A, 4, 5 (2 players)
SB bets t4175 (All-In), Hero ?

[Stripclubjunkie]

Wouldn't he reraise with AK and just call with AQ...I dont know, if he really have AK/AQ or 3-of-a-kind then it sure is a weird play...It seems like he dont want a call here.

Looking forward to taipans look at this

strip

[taipan168]

Interesting hand. There is a serious ICM effect going on here so let's run it:

- If Hero folds he will have 3085 chips worth 24.7% of the prize pool
- If Hero calls and wins he will have 7570 chips worth 39.3% of the prize pool
- If Hero calls and loses he is out.

Therefore, Hero needs to be 63% to win to make this a good call. I don't have time now, but the next step is to run some hands through Pokerstove to see whether you're in fact 63% to win. I'd bear in mind that an overbet like this is very often a hand that DOESN'T want a call (particularly on a relatively draw-free board like this), however you can't absolutely rule out a monster hand that's trying to be deceptive (or just played badly).

[kstarm]

So against 44+, ATs, ATo: I am 63.7% favorite. I would give him a wider flat calling range, and I am still on the fence about his pushing range. He insta-pushed which seemed stop and goish, maybe just sick of me attacking the blinds?

[mukaka]

I think you can put A5 through AQ and 22 through TT.. see how you fare against that range..

[brian1175]

I call

[fjuanl]

Whenever I see something like this I usually instacall fistpump without thinking (leak). Despite the overbet I really doubt this is a hand that you beat and you often have 80% equity or more against hands that do this (Ax you dominate, donkshoves with midpairs)

80% equity against Ax you dominate
87% equity against mid pairs
~75% equity against pair+gutshot

[TLR]

I would call, I think often you will run into weaker Ax

[Sprayed]

If you need 63% to call here, it's close depending upon bad guys range. However, I don't think that you have it and it's probably a fold. Very tough spot though.