super thin value bet?

[pgil]

I am running somewhat loose/passive as I have been calling in position a fair bit due to a couple of players on my right who like to steal. Opp is decent, aggressive reg, though not too many hands on him on this computer.

I limped UTG because I am trying this out instead of open raising small PP's as often UTG/UTG+1.

I have opp on basically KK once we get to the river this way, is it wrong that I really want to value bet this for like 25?

No-Limit Hold'em, $2.00 BB (9 handed) - Hold'em Manager Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

BB ($213.85)
Hero (UTG) ($338.30)
UTG+1 ($228.45)
MP1 ($209.90)
MP2 ($201.40)
MP3 ($197.05)
CO ($202)
Button ($367.85)
SB ($203.60)

Preflop: Hero is UTG with 3, 3
Hero calls $2, 7 folds, BB raises $8, Hero calls $8

Flop: ($21) K, 2, 8 (2 players)
BB bets $14, Hero raises $36, BB calls $22

Turn: ($93) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: ($93) 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero...

[STHollywood]

Really? I think check? What is the range your putting him on that a thin value bet is +EV? Although actually I could see it either way.

He is agressive but checked 2 streets after the flop call of your raise...what could that be here? AK, KQ, AA no diamonds, I dont think mid pocket pairs are calling the flop raise cause there is nothing improving their hand on later streets, wouldnt an agressive player shove a set here?

Is AA, AK, KQ no diamonds calling a thin bet? What do you think?

[aka_red]

this is retarded.

[STHollywood]

this is retarded.

Is it really necessary to berate people who don't really understand poker and are trying to learn?

[BankItDrew]

bet $5

if he pops u, it's a confident fold.

[pgil]

a $5 bet seems pointless. I imagine there is a greater loss in equity just in case he decides to bluff raise 1 out of every 100 hands than is gained those times he calls the $5. This is why I was thinking 25 ish.

I suppose sets do push the flop, which leaves us with AK/AA that may call a (super) thin VB.

[aka_red]

I would like to see a poker stove analysis of the range you put him on that will call a river bet.

[bikes]

Gah I was gonna C&P and convo but ill type it out.

First off I hate your raise on the flop. If the villain knows your not retarded you can only have 22 or a bluff especially since you label him as a decent aggro reg.

Second this is FR. Top set is not going to call a vbet. 2pair is not going to call a vbet anything you beat is not going to call you. Turning your hand in a bluff to fold a higher frush is bad as well as theres only 3 flushes in his range and they are the A,Q,T and I would never fold any of them with the way the action went.

In short this is not HU, check it down.

[bikes]

Oh and betting $5 is spew imo as well unless your image is that of a retard or you have a solid meta against him. I'd come after you with my entire range if you bet $5 and that includes stuff you beat.

[mcatdog]

I would like to see a poker stove analysis of the range you put him on that will call a river bet.

Get out of here with your "ranges." Ranges are for nerds who aren't good enough at poker to put their opponent on exactly one hand.

Seriously though, I agree, we might not even be ahead of villain's range period, let alone his calling range. He can have a lot of stuff like 99, TT, QQ with a diamond, or KK, or AA without a diamond. You beat less than half of that range. If I'm villain and I see you make a tiny river bet, then I know you're weak, my range has tons of hands that crush you and it's time for you to get shoved on in your face.

[Deanglow]

I don't understand why you aren't betting the turn and shoving the river.

[pgil]

here is my thinking. most Qd will not check twice, but will value bet the river themselves (the only Qd's he can realistically have are QQ/KQ/AQ). Td may check or may bet the river, but what Td calls the flop? Not many. Ad clearly bets somewhere. 9d, what 9d gets to the river? again, not many.

the hands that get to the river but do not bet the turn or the river are AA/AK both with no diamonds, or a badly played set that is wishing it shoved over the flop. And, if my opponent is even moderately suspicious, he may end up talking himself into calling a smallish river bet with one of these hands.

that is what I was thinking both during the hand and when looking over this hand afterwards, and was wondering if there was any value in betting here, clearly consensus is there is not. I did not bet the river in the hand, but had considered it.

[Deanglow]

As played this looks like an easy $30 bet or so