River decision against LAG 400NL

[Deanglow]

Villain is a good 6max LAG regular which has kind of made him a mediocre spewy full ring player. He is like 20/15 and is capable of a lot. What it do?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00 BB (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Button ($411)
SB ($242.10)
BB ($225.85)
UTG ($412)
UTG+1 ($452)
MP1 ($839.40)
MP2 ($406)
MP3 ($415)
Hero (CO) ($427)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A, A
UTG calls $4, 4 folds, Hero raises to $20, Button calls $20, 3 folds

Flop: ($50) 7, 2, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $32, Button calls $32

Turn: ($114) 3 (2 players)
Hero bets $84, Button calls $84

River: ($282) 7 (2 players)
Hero has $275

[KeliSobrao]

I'd probably go slightly larger on the flop.

How does he view you? Is he really calling a PSB on the river with tens or jacks here?

[elipsesjeff]

Well, I'm assuming you think you're ahead here which I agree. I bet he raises the FD on the flop so I doubt he even has that.

The problem with checking is that he rarely value bets JJ or worse and probably not QQ depends on his range. I doubt he folds TT to a shove and depending on how spewy of a FR player he might fold JJ too.

I guess that leaves us at a bet/call of $100.

[Fnord]

I guess that leaves us at a bet/call of $100.

Given that he's a thinking playing, $100 looks like a CALL ME bet. I'm more inclined to just shove and let him figure it out. I don't hate a check either, although the line screams of check/call.

[elipsesjeff]

I guess that leaves us at a bet/call of $100.

Given that he's a thinking playing, $100 looks like a CALL ME bet. I'm more inclined to just shove and let him figure it out. I don't hate a check either, although the line screams of check/call.

I'd like to think that our shove has much value to it, but we're only getting a call out of KK/boat if we do. Since this board is pretty horrible to continuation bet, 2 barrel, AND 3barrel we never show up here without KK+ (maybe AcKc). I doubt we even play QQ the same way either so getting value out of worse pair is impossible with a shove.

The reason to check/call is if you think your opponent has the club draw, and the mostly likely club draw I can see here is AcJc as he's raising all higher preflop and folding all worse on the turn.

I know the $100 looks real fishy in a value-town line, but you'll see JJ-QQ still call this bet thankful that they get to see a showdown with an overpair vs your range and still call. I don't think you're going to get a call out of 88-TT no matter what you do.

I guess its just a matter of an EV calculation to find out which line is best.

[ATOTHEC101]

I dont know about villain but if hero bets $100 at me on this river I shove over as a bluff due to his obvious value town line with a big pair. Seeing as this guys a good 6 max reg and is quite agro I can imagine hell make the same move alot. Thats why I prefer a check/call check fold line depending on bet size rather than bet folding for $100.

[elipsesjeff]

Thats why I prefer a check/call check fold line depending on bet size rather than bet folding for $100.

It was bet/call not bet/fold. So if he bluffs this a lot why wouldn't we do this same line with our hand?