JJ short-stacked with 2 opps AI

[Nakamura]

As good as the hand is Hero needs to make a difficult fold here, right?

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Poker Star Game
Blinds : 125/250 - Ante 25.0
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8 players
[SB] Hero (1240)
[BB] 19arjan82 (3600)
[1] Tlien1920 (1115)
[2] ExpertStyleZ (2045)
[3] edrich (2460)
[4] nicoin (1525)
[5] DuAnE17 (1610)
[But] grnmonster15 (1405)

Hero J J Initial Pot: 575

Tlien1920 is All in
ExpertStyleZ folds
edrich folds
nicoin folds
DuAnE17 folds
grnmonster15 is All in
Hero ??

[kevster]

It's very close IMO. However, they're both in a similar spot to you so their ranges could be pretty wide. You're M is 2.15 so you can't afford to hang around and, as you're nowhere near the money yet, I think I clench my buttocks and call.

[Nakamura]

It's very close IMO. However, they're both in a similar spot to you so their ranges could be pretty wide. You're M is 2.15 so you can't afford to hang around and, as you're nowhere near the money yet, I think I clench my buttocks and call.

Sorry it's a DON so 3 to go. I'm not that close, but then again lots of folks make retarded calls late in DON games.

[Thunder]

Without running ICM or pokerstove, I figure both opps could well have Ax and so a couple of their outs are removed. Even if you're up against AK and AQ, the 2 overs mean it's about 50/50 and you'd gladly take that, wouldn't you?

With a chance to triple up it's push and cover time.


Edit: pokerstove reads as:
JJ - 45%
AK - 35%
AQ - 20%


Against the following ranges:
JJ - 37.5%
88+,ATs+,KTs+,QJs,AJo+,KQo - 30%
88+,ATs+,KQs,AQo+ (slightly tighter as he's calling) - 33%

So you still have more than enough equity to call a 3 way.

[TLR]

Tough spot in DoN. OR can raise very wide here, he is the short stack and blinds are going to hit him on the next hand, button has to have a decent hand.
I think I fold here

[Rage2100]

I think I would fold too in a DoN, but it's really close. Almost all of the players at the table are now in push/fold mode, so UTG could be pushing with a lower PP. The Button re-push indicates a very strong hand though, so I think I fold.

[Thunder]

Did you fold?

[Nakamura]

Did you fold?

Yes. I believed the button had a big hand. As it turned out the first raiser had AQ, the button had AK and hit a straight.

I can see cases for both folding and playing here, but I'm not convinced either way. Given your revised ranges a 3-way gamble is not so good if we feel we have a "playing edge" over our opps.

[Thunder]

Haha, my read was right!

Call/fold - very tricky spot.

I hear what you're saying about an edge but when is this going to be of any use when you have an M of 2?

[flomo]

*stupid question*

what is DON?

[Thunder]

Dubbel oar nuffink.

[flomo]

ty Thunder

[Nakamura]

Haha, my read was right!

Call/fold - very tricky spot.

I hear what you're saying about an edge but when is this going to be of any use when you have an M of 2?

It's pretty usual to run much shorter in DoN's compared to normal SnG's. Even at an M of 2 I'm not quite in panic mode just yet. Considering your revised ranges we should fold this hand if we believe our chances of placing are above 37.5% should we fold, no? I folded in the belief I would be have a better chance of placing. In the end I placed easily, but the hand stuck in my mind.

[Thunder]

From an equity perspective, you are priced in to call, but the decision is one of those that isn't clear cut, regardless of the maths.

I don't play DONs so seeing as their is no incentive to gather the most chips, maybe folding was correct - just like folding KK to an all in shove when in a satellite.

[Sprayed]

I don't think that you could go wrong either way with this hand. It depends on their range making it a call or a fold.