Push or fold?

[Thunder]

In the middle of a 10 buy in downswing, nothing going right, yadda yadda.

Villain had been open raising to 2x bb. At first I thought these were monsters but the frequency of them, coupled with a similar stack on his immediate left - and they were always cautious with each other - led me to believe they were spec hands.

Finally I get a hand and the following takes place.

Seat 2: Candaice (4145 in chips)
Seat 3: Jisri (4315 in chips)
Seat 5: HERO (2455 in chips)
Seat 6: Basstie (950 in chips)
Seat 9: AAAA57 (1635 in chips)
Jisri: posts small blind 75
HERO: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HERO [Td Tc]
Basstie: folds
AAAA57: folds
Candaice: raises 450 to 600
Jisri: folds

Villain has something. I'd say AJ suited at the least.

I'm guessing it's a fold?

[Nakamura]

Given your villain's raising range this is close. You have some FE if you push it AI, but do you reckon the villain is folding here? Probably not if he is only making this play with AJs+. If his raising range is really AJs+, I think I fold here.

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 51.825% 51.00% 00.83% 403446372 6532776.00 { 88+, AJs+, KQs, AQo+ }
Hand 1: 48.175% 47.35% 00.83% 374572524 6532776.00 { TT }

Edit: I reckon his raising range is much wider than you credit him for.

[Rage2100]

I would push over his raise here, especially if he's been raising quite often.

[caddie444]

Calling sucks, folding sucks, so I shove this in.

Most of the time you'll be flipping or dominating.

I don't see how he has an over-pair with this raise most of the time.

Remember he's on the button and its been folded to him, so he could be opening pretty light here.

He will call with speculative hands if he's any good because his pot odds are decent.

[flomo]

push

[Thunder]

push

Grazie. I did.

FWIW my bad run this afternoon ensured I finished just outside the top 10 on the BotP leaderboard when just one more deserved score would have seen me hit 2nd for a nice payday.

[taipan168]

Seems like a straightforward push to me, even against Naka's range (which I think is way too tight) you're roughly 50/50, and I think you do have some FE too considering stack sizes.

[Sprayed]

Push. I would suggest that you try and discontinue the talk about your downswings.