Flex your brain

[Kijjo]

Alright, a hand I watched made me start pondering. You're not allowed to use a calculator or poker stove or anything, just your mind. You're up against QQ, would you prefer AQs or A4s?

It's not a big difference, but I'm wondering how many know the answer off the top of their head - on your honor, don't cheat! Post, then go look it up if you don't know and don't spoil it for anybody.

[JR9477]

A4s is my guess because A4s can get a Two Pair, where AQs cannot.
I'm gonna go use that calculator now.

[Nakamura]

Yeah, A4s opens up 3 extra outs if an A flops, but the straight is harder to hit. I'll put my neck on the line and say A4s

[krimson]

But two pair is of no use to beat QQ, you just need to catch an ace while villain doesn't hit a set.

The only advantage of A4s over AQs (except the tiny extra chance of catching a straight using four community cards) is that you can make trip fours. I think the probability of that is less than 3%, and maybe 30% of the time either an A or a Q will hit anyway, making the fours irrelevant. But with AQs you halve villains chance of hitting a set, from about 20% to 10%. Since you spike your ace about 30% of the time that should improve you equity by about 3%. So my guesstimate is that AQs has about 1-2% more equity than A4s against QQ.

[JR9477]

I feel like a retard, no more posting drunk and tired for me. First thing I thought of when I woke up...
Two Pair wouldn't matter since if you hit an ace, you'd win anyways, you wouldn't need a second pair to back you up.
Sorry for being silly, spent too much time at a game at the bar last night. Lets just say it was a very profitable game that I didn't want to leave.

[Nakamura]

I feel like a retard, no more posting drunk and tired for me. First thing I thought of when I woke up...
Two Pair wouldn't matter since if you hit an ace, you'd win anyways, you wouldn't need a second pair to back you up.
Sorry for being silly, spent too much time at a game at the bar last night. Lets just say it was a very profitable game that I didn't want to leave.

ditto ... although the 4 does open a small opportunity for a set of fours

[BigPapi]

AQs is slightly better I think since you take away an out of his as well, so he has slightly less chance to hit trips, while a 4 doesnt matter to us against his QQ. chance to make a straight with AQ or A4 seems the same.

[fjuanl]

i was wrong and i still cant figure out why

[Kijjo]

fjuanl, if you read the whole thread the answers to the truth are in there. if you know what u picked was wrong, read the posts that mention the opposite option. i would like to let this sit for a little bit before anyone spoils it for others who might not have seen it yet.

[Rage2100]

I like krimson's answer.

[Sprayed]

AQs is slightly better I think since you take away an out of his as well, so he has slightly less chance to hit trips, while a 4 doesnt matter to us against his QQ. chance to make a straight with AQ or A4 seems the same.

But two pair is of no use to beat QQ, you just need to catch an ace while villain doesn't hit a set.

The only advantage of A4s over AQs (except the tiny extra chance of catching a straight using four community cards) is that you can make trip fours. I think the probability of that is less than 3%, and maybe 30% of the time either an A or a Q will hit anyway, making the fours irrelevant. But with AQs you halve villains chance of hitting a set, from about 20% to 10%. Since you spike your ace about 30% of the time that should improve you equity by about 3%. So my guesstimate is that AQs has about 1-2% more equity than A4s against QQ.

I would say that these would be the winners.

[taipan168]

Good post. I would have sworn that both of them would have been very close, but I was surprised by the answer.

[mieczkowusc]

This is really good info. I was going to go with A4s, until I really thought about it. Probably comes from remembering more of the times that Queens get beat by a flopped set of the x part of Ax rather than the A hitting.

[Kijjo]

Well it really was close - i forget now - 2% difference? Anyways, you don't want to be in either situation, just thought it'd be an interesting exercise.
I almost went with A6o or AQo, but that woulda been way too easy right?

[FlowJoe]

i was wrong and i still cant figure out why

http://poker-tools.FlopTurnRiver.com...Calculator.php
FlopTurnRiver.com -h Qs Qd - Ac 4c
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Qd 1140226 66.59 565354 33.02 6724 0.39 0.668
Ac 4c 565354 33.02 1140226 66.59 6724 0.39 0.332


http://poker-tools.FlopTurnRiver.com...Calculator.php
FlopTurnRiver.com -h Qs Qd - Ac Qc
Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Qs Qd 1114783 65.10 576259 33.65 21262 1.24 0.657
Ac Qc 576259 33.65 1114783 65.10 21262 1.24 0.343




LMAO!
So True man!!
Fagetaboutit!!

[TLR]

AQs is slightly better I think since you take away an out of his as well, so he has slightly less chance to hit trips, while a 4 doesnt matter to us against his QQ. chance to make a straight with AQ or A4 seems the same.

This, also with A4s one of his Q can be a blocker, with AQs it cannot

[Kijjo]

Thought I'd come back and post the answer for anyone who didn't know how to look it up/wasn't sure.
QQ vs. AQs
QQ is 66% to win, AQs is 34%
QQ vs. A4s
QQ is 67% to win, A4s is 33%

Interesting why? Well normally when the cards flip and you're dominated like with AQ vs. QQ, you MIGHT wish you had any other card than the Q as your kicker. But though you're still screwed at this point, you couldn't be any happier with your Q than if you had a K. Even with J or T, though you open up some straight potential, you're still giving up about 1% by leaving another Q out there for villain to catch for a set.
SO, just pray for an A!