Weak pair in 3bet pot oop - 100NL

[XTR1000]

No hud, villian appears to be in the TAG area. He has been stealing the blinds and noone has done anything about it so far. Overall theres very little 3betting in these games.


$0.50/$1 No Limit Holdem
5 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG ($99.00)
CO ($99.90)
BTN ($114.30)
SB ($121.65)
BB ($79.40)

Hero is SB with

Pre-flop: ($1.50, 5 players)
2 folds, BTN bets $4, SB bets $12.50, 1 fold, BTN calls $9

Flop: ($27, 2 players)

[Pelion]

Preflop id wait for a better hand. With 65o we dont have much showdown value at all.

On the flop Id just bet out. If we check he'll probably bet with a wide range and calling will be terrible. If we bet he probably folds most of what missed and we can still improve if he calls with an overpair.

It would be really useful to know if he calls 3bets with low PPs here.

[minSim]

Preflop id wait for a better hand. With 65o we dont have much showdown value at all.

While I agree with your conclusion, I think your argument doesn't stand. Having showdown value is of little important in a 3bet pot OOP, imo.

I'd just bet out when I don't know much about villain. I don't like the guessing game that comes with the c/c.

[XTR1000]

agree on preflop, its a pure bluff. but given the (lack of) dynamic I think its an okay spot to 3b air here. A rough estimate of his calling range is 77-TT, AJs, AQ, KQs and some random sc´s.

Now even if he fires his whole range when checked to, c/r would still be bad, right?

[Pelion]

Preflop id wait for a better hand. With 65o we dont have much showdown value at all.

While I agree with your conclusion, I think your argument doesn't stand. Having showdown value is of little important in a 3bet pot OOP, imo.

I'd just bet out when I don't know much about villain. I don't like the guessing game that comes with the c/c.

Yeah ok I dont really mean showdown value. I mean nut-hand value. If its suited then we still get to take the small pots as often but we have that much more value added from occasionally making a flush or a profitable semibluff. With something like Axs we get overcard + FD semibluffs and occasionally showdown and win a weak TP in a medium sized pot. With 65o we are so far behind his steal range and with so few ways to even have a draw worth semibluffing on the flop that I dont think its going to be profitable.

edit: The reason I dont like preflop is because we are building a big pot out of position with a crap hand against someone we dont really know anything about. OOP gets much easier when we have an idea how he will play different hands.

[Da GOAT]

3bet pre is meh fine. i make a cb bet basically to try take down the pot which is a nice amount to win.

[a500lbgorilla]

I'm still bluffing the flop

[XTR1000]

I did bet the flop.


SB bets $17, BTN calls $17

Turn: ($61, 2 players)

c/f right?

[jimmy44]

Yup, for me this is a c/f.
BTW, I think, Pre, it's OK, even if I prefer to 3bet with these hands from BU. As Pelion said, from SB I prefer a better/high potential hand.

[Da GOAT]

turn is tough spot, since he is a nit tag then ok ill give up.

[bode]

3bet is fine. cbet is fine. now shut down on the turn. even if these games were more aggro and lots of 3betting going on, the J isn't enough of a scare card on this board to be barreling the turn.

[a500lbgorilla]

I kinda wanna fire 3 barrels

[jimmy44]

I kinda wanna fire 3 barrels

The problem are the stack sizes.
Turn pot is $61, we have $90 left and villain has $85.
If we bet $40 turn and villain calls, river will be $141, we'll have $50 left and villain $45.
If we bet $30 and villain calls, river will be $121, we'll have $60 left and vilain $55.

[a500lbgorilla]

effin 100bb shortstackers!

Of course, on the flip side betting 30, then betting 55 means the bluff has to work less often on the river to be profitable but you are sort of sliding in 30 dollars pretty bad.

What about a second barrel figuring he's used to blinds fighting back at him and expects you to give up with a lot of your range when floated? Especially on this turn card without a very strong and unfoldable holding?

[XTR1000]

What about a second barrel figuring he's used to blinds fighting back at him and expects you to give up with a lot of your range when floated? Especially on this turn card without a very strong and unfoldable holding?

Too much of his range improved on this turn, and he won´t fold AJ and FD´s I suppose. Anyway, turn checked thru and the river bricks. Now what?

SB checks, BTN checks

River: ($61, 2 players)
SB checks, BTN bets $10

[nutsinho]

fold. but bet less on flop and double the turn. 14, 25, jam river for 62 if its a 5, 6, Q, K, or A.

[DirtyGoblin]

i don't like 3betting here with 65o either, 65s maybe if he's folding a lot to 3bets... I wait until I have a hand that's in the top 1/3 of his stealing range

[IowaSkinsFan]

fold. but bet less on flop and double the turn. 14, 25, jam river for 62 if its a 5, 6, Q, K, or A.

Yep



I wouldn't threebet pre either.

[a500lbgorilla]

could one of you write down your thought process for those decisions?

[mixchange]

in 3bet pots ppl call flop wide with pairs IP to see what you do on turn, you can get a surprising amount of folds with a small-medium turn bet, and of course they fold their pair on river if an over likely in your 3b range hits and you shove.

basically taking a line that makes them put in a lot of money while folding a lot

pf is ok given the spot you stated, very high steal % without much 3betting happening yet by us. Basically a high success rate for the 3b bluff. Even so I'd probably wait for something that plays better postflop