Taking Chances at the Right Time

[Robb]

Y'all MTT regs probably know this. But I was considering why, once you're getting 2 to 1 odds and/or nearly half your stack's in the middle, it's probably wrong to fold. So I did some math. I saw a villain do roughly this maneuver, raised him so he'd be all-in to call, and he folded.

Suppose that Hero, with blinds 500/1k and ante 100, has a stack of 8k chips. With M < 5, he should be shoving here, but suppose he picks up A8o on the BTN and tries to steal blinds with a raise to 3k. BB raises him all-in.

Now, the pot's 2,5000 + 3,000 + 5,000 = 10,500 and Hero has better than 2 to 1 on his call. Suppose his equity's only 20%. He can't look at 4 to 1 odds against winning vs. 2 to 1 pot odds and say, "can't call that."

He's better off calling off his stack here in MOST cases. Compare calling to folding this hand and picking up AA on the VERY next hand (getting it all-in heads up).

Say that he calls. Then 20% of the time he wins and moves forward with a stack of 20.5k for an M ~ 8 and reasonable chance at playing for a while.

If he folds, then plays AA for stacks, then roughly 80% of the time he doubles up to 7.5k in chips - less than what he had to start the previous hand. And that's assuming the monster comes right away. Of course, he'll be lucky to get his money in as 60-40 favorite in the next round before his stack is blinded off.

Which has me thinking about tournament poker a lot differently. Again, probably simple stuff to y'all, but sometimes you just have to get the chips in with the worst of it and hope for the best. 'Cuz there's no more time to wait.

[philly and the phanatics]

when your m is 3.3333 which yours would be in the example, then i thought oyu just wanted to push or fold, no stealing for the exact reason that if you get reraised you are already priced in to call (pot committed) so you might as well have gone all in anyway, plus the larger bet gives you more fold equity amongst your opponents

[Warpe]

^^^^^
what he said

[Robb]

when your m is 3.3333 which yours would be in the example, then i thought oyu just wanted to push or fold, no stealing for the exact reason that if you get reraised you are already priced in to call (pot committed) so you might as well have gone all in anyway, plus the larger bet gives you more fold equity amongst your opponents

Yeah, I saw the "hero" in this example do this - and it got me to thinking that he was silly to (A) not open shove in the first place and (B) not call off the rest of chips in the 2nd.

But the math works about the same in any big pot - you have a choice between being crippled and having "the worst of it." Sometimes, the "worst of it" is okay, and it just helped me to think about earlier bets to realize that, at some point before too many chips go in, you're pretty much committed to the hand.

[Sprayed]

In your example, any two would be profitable to shove or raise as he did and call the shove.

[hopeful]

m<5 should be a shove, especially late. Fold equity is important, i try to always be the aggressor and make a move rather than be forced to make a call because of pot odds. Perhaps the only time i would make a smaller raise is with AA when I want someone to try and re-steal.