AT deep in a 180

[Jack Sawyer]

Big stack has been very active since getting shorthanded

Your play?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $4.00+$0.40 Tournament, 800/1600 Blinds 150 Ante (3 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Hero (SB) (t66580)
BB (t23474)
Button (t179946)

Hero's M: 23.36

Preflop: Hero is SB with ,
Button raises to t4800, Hero?

[baudib]

I get it in and expect to be ahead.

[drmcboy]

I would 3 bet and shove flop

[bigspenda73]

how can we 3bet and shove flop unless me make it like 20k+ to go PF

[drmcboy]

I'm cool with making it 22kish

[mcatdog]

Given stacks and payouts you need about 70% equity to get it in here and it should be fairly obvious that you don't have that kind of equity with ATo.

Just fold and wait until shorty does something. The situation just forces you to be big stack's bitch for now.

[chardrian]

I dunno about ICM, but I agree w/doc and like the go'n'go here. Raising to 20k is just 4x his raise so it's not that bad.

[bigspenda73]

I fold purty fast, we're in pretty nasty shape against a tight calling range and gaining 7k chips doesnt mean a whole lot here

[mcatdog]

What hands do you guys expect him to shove over your huge 3-bet? I think making it 20k has got to be pretty bad.

[Jack Sawyer]

Tnx for the replies guys.

I folded in this spot. I wondered how bad or good a fold it was.

[chardrian]

What hands do you guys expect him to shove over your huge 3-bet? I think making it 20k has got to be pretty bad.

I am not expecting him to make a bad shove, I am expecting him to fold or make a bad call. Bad players make bad calls and then fold to flop pushes.

[bigspenda73]

you guys are pushing a neg. equity edge to gain few chips in a spot where we can still get to HU play with like 35+BBs by folding.

[baudib]

you guys are pushing a neg. equity edge to gain few chips in a spot where we can still get to HU play with like 35+BBs by folding.

I understand what you're saying and I'm all for folding into higher spots. But typically big stacks here are pushing around far too many hands. AT three-handed is a monster and has to be a favorite against any typical range you give him here. If the small stack gets one lucky double up and you go card dead you may want that AT back.

[bigspenda73]

he has two ranges

everyone here (except for Mcat) seems to think he only has one

[baudib]

Giving a $4 big stack credit for any kind of tight range is absurd. I think he fist-pump calls a shove with KQ/KJ or A6+ and possibly much worse than that.

[mcatdog]

Giving a $4 big stack credit for any kind of tight range is absurd. I think he fist-pump calls a shove with KQ/KJ or A6+ and possibly much worse than that.

Great! If he's that big of maniac then hen we can fold now and be secure in the knowledge that he'll end up all-in vs the shorty really soon.

Him calling wide only makes things worse. We lose a massive and I mean MASSIVE amount of equity if he calls our shove with KQ/KJ or 33 or anything else other than specifically a hand that we dominate. Even if he calls with 72o that's bad for us.

[bigspenda73]

there's really nothing worse than A6 for him to call with

[bigspenda73]

god I'm on tilt and I know I'm the least experienced tournament player posting in this thread but some of you are really making my head hurt with your lack of understanding of basic poker theory.

[baudib]

Giving a $4 big stack credit for any kind of tight range is absurd. I think he fist-pump calls a shove with KQ/KJ or A6+ and possibly much worse than that.

Great! If he's that big of maniac then hen we can fold now and be secure in the knowledge that he'll end up all-in vs the shorty really soon.

Him calling wide only makes things worse. We lose a massive and I mean MASSIVE amount of equity if he calls our shove with KQ/KJ or 33 or anything else other than specifically a hand that we dominate. Even if he calls with 72o that's bad for us.

But is him all-in vs. shorty good for us, or bad for us? Big stack is close to the point where he could and perhaps should put shortie in with ATC and that's bad for us. Shortie's stand with KTo vs. Big stack's QJs doesn't help us.

However, it's not like shortie is going to blind out in a couple of orbits. His stack is still a huge threat to us and we are not anywhere near being in a position to fold into second.

[dthorne04]

god I'm on tilt and I know I'm the least experienced tournament player posting in this thread but some of you are really making my head hurt with your lack of understanding of basic poker theory.

qftilt

[mcatdog]

But is him all-in vs. shorty good for us, or bad for us? Big stack is close to the point where he could and perhaps should put shortie in with ATC and that's bad for us.

No it's not. Would you rather have the shorty be getting walks? It's really not a big deal equity-wise if the big stack wins small pots off of shorty (or off of us for that matter).

Shortie's stand with KTo vs. Big stack's QJs doesn't help us.

Yes it does.

Pre-hand ICM equity: 188.96 for big stack, 147.92 for us, 108.80 for shorty
ICM equity if shorty doubles through big stack: 179.35 for big stack, 140.00 for us, 126.33 for shorty
ICM equity if big stack knocks out shorty: 161.52 for us, 198.48 for big stack

Shorty getting all-in vs. big stack is a good thing for us as long as the big stack has at least 36.8% equity, your QJs vs KTo is great for us.

This situation is very similar to the bubble of a 9-man SNG, if you're in 2nd place and the 3rd and 4th place stacks are very short, you can't get all-in without a huge hand, which ATo isn't. It's been covered many times by taipan in the SNG forum. You basically fold everything until something happens to the shorty; if he doubles up, oh well, now you have to start playing some hands again.

[bikes]

This thread is so tilting. This is like the most standard fold ever.

[mcatdog]

This thread is so tilting. This is like the most standard fold ever.

Yeah it's almost as though people think the best hand preflop has no chance of losing. Even if the shorty is on average getting all-in as a 60-40 vs. the big stack, due to the big stack raising so many crap hands, people are acting like that 60% is 100%. The parlay of {shorty holds up + shorty subsequently outlasts us} is always going to be less likely than the single event of us losing a 55-45 to the big stack here.

[baudib]

So how big a hand do you need to play here? AJ? AQ? 88?

[drmcboy]

the discussion is all us getting AI pre flop which I get is bad, but we also get a lot of folds pre flop and folds on the flop and calls on the flop when we are ahead.

[bigspenda73]

we get a lot of calls on the flop when we're ahead?

you're starting to live in baudib's world

[chardrian]

I really have no experience with ICM. So I will admit I am very probably just wrong mathwise. Here's my thought process though.

The difference between 2nd and 3rd matters less to me than the difference between 1st and 2nd. I.e. I am goin to do everything it takes to put myself in the best position to win this mofo, not everything I can do to ensure I get 2nd.

ATo is well ahead of his range. He is likely going to fold to my 3-bet. If he doesn't and I do get it in, and end up out in 3rd, oh well. If he doesn't and I win the hand, watch out because now I have the bigstack and I am feeling that I am winning this mofo a good 60% of the time, rather than the maybe 20% of the time if I just sit and blind down and wait until I hopefully get 2nd place locked up.

[drmcboy]

we get a lot of calls on the flop when we're ahead?

you're starting to live in baudib's world

I didn't say a lot.

How often do you think he's raising the BU and how often will he call a 3 bet?

[mcatdog]

I think he's raising 50% or more, and continuing to your massive 22K 3-bet with between 5% and 10%.

[bigspenda73]

I say he's opening 40% and continuing with at most 15%, probably more like 10-12%, and, situationally he should realize we are VERY strong and may only continue with 5-8%.

I mean, we look v v strong seeing how we're putting our tourney effectively on the line with a player much shorter than us in 3rd.

[drmcboy]

OK, that seems reasonable and makes it seem + chip EV even if the rest of the money always goes in on the 5-10% - right?

Does your 70% number above assume once we 3 bet vs top X % he always commits to the hand?

[baudib]

I would contrast this hand to the 99 in the BB vs. the big stack's unusually large raise. In that situation we're much more likely to be up against a real hand with very little incentive to gamble. Here, we're almost certainly well ahead of his range. I'm with chardrian here in that I admit I don't know the ICM but I'm willing to gamble to get into a dominant chip position and I don't care about finishing third. If shortstack was about half its size I'd reconsider.

[baudib]

we get a lot of calls on the flop when we're ahead?

you're starting to live in baudib's world

I wish I lived in "my world." See JJ thread for getting pwn3d by higher pp.

[dthorne04]

I would contrast this hand to the 99 in the BB vs. the big stack's unusually large raise. In that situation we're much more likely to be up against a real hand with very little incentive to gamble. Here, we're almost certainly well ahead of his range. I'm with chardrian here in that I admit I don't know the ICM but I'm willing to gamble to get into a dominant chip position and I don't care about finishing third. If shortstack was about half its size I'd reconsider.

except this hand has nothing in common with the 99 hand, as it's 100% a different situation.

[baudib]

I'd be more inclined to gamble in this situation.

[bigspenda73]

I'd be more inclined to gamble in this situation.

great insight

[baudib]

The cost of busting out 9th with the second-biggest stack and several ministacks seems far greater than busting out third with a stack 1/3 the size of the big stack. Also, I think I'm more ahead here than with 99 in the other situation.

[bigspenda73]

i mean if you dont even have pokerstove you should just stop posting

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 39.575% 37.39% 02.18% 837507432 48841410.00 { ATo }
Hand 1: 60.425% 58.24% 02.18% 1304503380 48841410.00 { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }


equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.567% 46.96% 00.60% 603107484 7755834.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 52.433% 51.83% 00.60% 665608848 7755834.00 { 77+, A9s+, KTs+, QTs+, AJo+, KQo }


---

[baudib]

To think that villains in both threads have remotely the same ranges is laughable to me. In 99 hand, villain is making stealy small raises and getting away with it constantly. His raise there is much bigger and is going BvB against only stack that really threatens him.
Don't you think he has a bigger chance to show up with a real hand?

In this thread we have villain with 2/3 of the chips in play. Limiting his range to A9s, KTs, QJ+ is just ridiculous. If you haven't seen big stacks like this pushing people around with A2, K4, J9, 87 or worse, you haven't gotten to many final tables. Also, IMO he is limping JJ+ and probably even donk-limping AQ/AK.

If villain had any idea you are folding AT here, he should rightfully steal from you with ATC.

Coinflip to be chipleader with three left is a bigger deal than being chipleader with nine left.

[bigspenda73]

I even ran a diff. 10% range, here's 99 against it, ATo was about 40/60 dog to this range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.952% 53.34% 00.61% 706892916 8143302.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 46.048% 45.43% 00.61% 602143776 8143302.00 { 22+, ATs+, KJs+, AQo+, KQo }

[baudib]

I even ran a diff. 10% range, here's 99 against it, ATo was about 40/60 dog to this range:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 53.952% 53.34% 00.61% 706892916 8143302.00 { 99 }
Hand 1: 46.048% 45.43% 00.61% 602143776 8143302.00 { 22+, ATs+, KJs+, AQo+, KQo }

Look, your ranges aren't realistic. You're now including the few hands that 99 dominates but pretty much eliminate the ones AT dominates? You think he is open-folding A2?

I see bubble plays every single night where players at $24+2 call off 90 percent of their chips with QJo and chip leaders put in 40% of their chips against rocks with K7. Expect donk leader here to be much looser than that. I think it's highly likely he is raising 60-70% and snap-calling any two broadways, any K/any A. That may be conservative as there is often little difference between opening range/call shove range.

[bigspenda73]

why ru putting words in my mouth (and the incorrect ones at that)

[baudib]

What do the ranges you posted have to do with anything in this thread? I think we're all aware that AT sucks chunks against any reasonably competent villain's hand range. I open-fold it from almost any position 98 percent of the time.

But if you want a realistic idea of how we fare against a realistic range for villain here, run 22+, eliminating QQ+, A2o+, K2+, Q9+, J9+, SC 87+

[bigspenda73]

you

just

don't

get

it

[baudib]

I'll ask again, what does your hand ranges have to do with this thread? Hey, I'm all for open discussion and differing opinions but I don't care for pedantic ramblings.

[swiggidy]

I think it's highly likely he is raising 60-70% and snap-calling any two broadways, any K/any A. That may be conservative as there is often little difference between opening range/call shove range.

This is contradictory.

[chardrian]

I rarely, if ever, get pms.

[bikes]

This is why donkaments will always be the easiest of games.

[mcatdog]

This is why donkaments will always be the easiest of games.

How's 2NL treating you lately?

j/k

[Sprayed]

It doesn't matter what the range is for button. From an ICM perspective, it might be unprofitable to shove over with QQ in this spot. Would I fold QQ or AK? No.