55 makes a straight on the river, 3-flush board

[x in extremo]

{Split from the folding aces thread by taipan168}

Getting sucked in..... sucks.

What do you guys think of this hand?
5nd hand in the game. The enemy was already showing aggressive tendencies.
I was sure the guy was trying to buy the pot. If not, he made 2 small pair on the turn, or a set... Not a flush, not an ace.. He would have bet before.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10+$1 Tournament, 10/20 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com



UTG+1 (t1480)
Mr Son of Bitch (MP1) (t2130)
MP2 (t1460)
MP3 (t1570)
CO (t1470)
Button (t1470)
SB (t1620)
Hero (BB) (t1500)
UTG (t800)

Hero's M: 50.00



Preflop: Hero is BB with 5, 5
2 folds, Mr Son of Bitch calls t20, MP2 calls t20, 1 fold, CO raises to t40, 2 folds, Hero calls t20, Mr Son of Bitch calls t20, MP2 calls t20

Flop: (t170) A, K, 2 (4 players)
Hero checks, Mr Son of Bitch checks, MP2 checks, CO checks

Turn: (t170) 3 (4 players)
Hero checks, Mr Son of Bitch checks, MP2 checks, CO checks

River: (t170) 4 (4 players)
Hero bets t60, Mr Son of Bitch raises to t2090 (All-In), 2 folds, Hero ????

{Results edited out by taipan168}

[taipan168]

Don't post results - I edited them out.

Tough spot, but I think I fold this on the river - I'm primarily worried about the flush on board that opp might have slowplayed on the turn and now he realises it's his last chance to get his money in. It is difficult because I usually find a massive overbet like this is a hand that doesn't want a call, so something that you beat.

One of the big considerations for me is the poor pot odds we are receiving to make the call - barely more than even money because there weren't that many chips in the pot before the river.

[baudib]

This is an easy fold...I don't know what to make of donk shoves like this...they're either bluffs or something close to the nuts. This is an easy fold for me, bad pot odds and the best you can hope for is a chop.

[Nakamura]

This is an easy fold...I don't know what to make of donk shoves like this...they're either bluffs or something close to the nuts. This is an easy fold for me, bad pot odds and the best you can hope for is a chop.

?? I have seen donks make bets like this with hands like 2 pair, TPTK etc, etc. I'm not necessarily giving him credit for the flush, but I'm folding due to the small pot size and the fact that doubling up (not)= busting out.

[TLR]

I would fold, with 4 str and FD on the board I dont see anyone raising with less then a made str8

[Da GOAT]

tbh id call and chalk a loss as a cooler.

He doesnt have a flush and there are only 2 fives left in the deck. Opp just spazzed out imo so I call.

[Jack Sawyer]

its a limped-minraised pot

his range is 100% of hands preflop

also, the pot is too small on river for him to do this without some flush or some straight (or 56o for added drama)

[sammyfarha]

Hello. My first post. Been reading here a lot but decided to register to join in the discussions and hopefully help me in my game.

As for the hand, I think I fold here. Too expensive to find out if villain's some crazy guy or fishing someone who would think he's a crazy guy. Obviously, without the 3-flush I would call. But then again I play 2.25 sng so what do I know.

[gingerwizard]

not a bluff, but does he have the flush.

I'd say, from experience, this is 40% a flush, 20% a small set, 30% Ax with x making 2 pair, and I divide the last 10% between ridiculous bluff, straight, or one pair hands. My reason for so high on flush is that it fits a classic donk line. Limp any two suited cards, check to "disguise" your flush, hoping to get bet into on river.

I won't do the calculations as I'm pretty sure my believing in a 60% chance to double up is enough to make this an easy fold. Tai, what percentage of the time would I be required to believe he has a flush before it is a call.

[taipan168]

Tai, what percentage of the time would I be required to believe he has a flush before it is a call.

OK, I'll run the ICM analysis on this:

- If we fold we will have 1400 chips worth 10.5% of the prize pool
- If we call and win we will have 3090 chips worth 20.7% of the prize pool
- If we call and lose we are out.

Therefore, we need to be 50.7% to win (10.5/20.7) to make this a good call.

Personally I think it's too hard to assign exact percentages to the hands that opp might have, but I will hazard a guess that we do not have the winning hand at least 50.7% of the time here.

[gingerwizard]

Wow, ok I'm surprised it has to be that low.

To be coherent this is a call for me then. It may be too hard to assign exact percentages, but there is no reason not to assign ball park percentages.

[DoanDiggy]

I tend to insta-call and then chastise myself for being such a donk when the guy shows a flush or 65.

Personally, I tend to bet/fold (like 2/3 pot to full pot) that turn a lot in this situation. While the hearts hit a limping range pretty good, they are also scary to a lot of non-heart hands. I tend to subscribe to the idea of, "More hearts on the board mean less in someone's hand". Also, a lot of people bet flush draws or an A on that flop. You might just have the best hand here, and if not, you might be able to fold a better one.

What I mean is that the AK and the hearts are pretty scary to a lot of players who are in this hand. In other words, a bet gives you good fold equity against hands that are currently ahead of you (Kx, 66-TT, even some bad aces) and it gives you the information to get away from the hand cheaply if you get raised. If you get a single caller, you can even put in a small bet on a non-heart river (1/4-1/3 pot is often enough) to chase out those higher pairs that were just chasing a flush.

You'll also get called by idiots that turned that 3 as well as players with a single heart and no other hand to speak of, almost making betting here a value bet. It also hides your hand well, adding great implied odds against a set or two pair that 10%+ of the time when you hit your gutshot or a set of your own on the river.

But I'm pretty aggressive postflop. Try these ideas at your own risk .