Turn play with set 100nl

[bikes]

Villain is unknown but stats suggest hes on the nittier side of tag. His timing on the flop lead me to suspect his range is about AK, KQ and AQss, and even if its wider than that lets say for the sake of this hand history his range is AA, AK KQ and AQss.

This turn card is the worst for our hand because it kills alot of our action. Obviously if he has AQss the money is going. If we are looking to extract from AA, AK and KQ what line should we take here? Can we afford to check and hope he bets or possibly give a free card? Or bet something retarded and try to induce a shove?

Full Tilt No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00 BB (8 handed)

MP1 ($188.65)
MP2 ($100)
CO ($295.15)
Button ($131.15)
SB ($255.55)
Hero (BB) ($100)
UTG ($98.50)
UTG+1 ($253.50)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 7, 7
2 folds, MP1 raises to $4, 1 fold, CO calls $4, 2 folds, Hero calls $3

Flop: ($12.50) K, 3, 7 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP1 bets $8, 1 fold, Hero raises to $26, MP1 calls $18

Turn: ($64.50) J (2 players) Hero?

[mcatdog]

I would just assume that he has AK or AA with the ace of spades, figure out how much you have to bet to make it be a mistake for him to continue, and bet slightly more than that. I don't think he's going to make a mistake with any of the other hands in his range so this is the only part of his range I'm concerned with.

Checking is so horrible.

[CGKIII]

Shove it in. You've got an ~PSB left.

You're a favorite against AA/AK/KQ+spade, and still have some outs against an unlikely flush. The only hand that crushes you is KK, and villian probably would have pushed the flop there. The only hand I think you might fold out is KQ (w/Qs), which is okay. If you bet 1/2 pot, villian is getting 3:1, 4:1 if he figures to stack you every time he rivers a spade (which he can't, because I assume you check/fold all spade rivers). So bet at least half pot. But I think you're giving up too much value here by betting that small.