50NL: BvB vs stealey reg

[d0zer]

villain is a 15/12/4 reg (40% ATS, 64% cbet flop)

$0.25/$0.5 No Limit Holdem
7 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG freefly000 ($58.80)
UTG+1 BuyMyGucci ($50.50)
MP sm0kelm ($49.45)
CO wuckboy ($22.70)
BTN buehl111 ($36.25)
SB R1aki ($51.00)
BB Hero ($50.75)

Pre-flop: ($0.75, 7 players) Hero is BB
5 folds, R1aki raises to $2, Hero calls $1.50

Flop: ($4, 2 players)
R1aki bets $3, Hero calls $3

Turn: ($10, 2 players)
R1aki bets $5, Hero calls $5

River: ($20, 2 players)
R1aki bets $11, $11 to Hero ($40.75)?

[ATOTHEC101]

looks like qj, q10 alot here. I play the same and prooobably fold river.

[Miffed22001]

id do something on the flop or turn and not call the turn because your opponent fires river soooo much

[kmind]

If I call preflop it's with the intentions of raising most cbets. Sucks that we flop showdown value though. I think your play is fine but now fold river. As miffed said, IF he does fire a lot on the river then turn play is crucial and I'd either call turn/call river or even just fold turn. Always have to be thinking ahead. Anyways, I'd rather 3bet a hand like J9s preflop here.

lol at sm0kelm

edit: meh his range is actually pretty tight here given his cbet on this board that should hit us pretty often. Turn may be a fold but I'd like to see how often he double/triple barrels etc.

[d0zer]

lol at sm0kelm

Who's that? He's always on my tablez...

[kmind]

mookboi at 2p2. Used to play 50NL 6max like 6 months ago for a living and played all the time. Just makes me wonder if he didn't do so well in 6max anymore or never moved up or something. He was like the nit of all nits.

[BankItDrew]

raise flop to see where you are at

as played, turn call is good and his river bet is taking you to value town - fold

[Renton]

miffed, no

bankit, no

op, played fine now fold river

[Renton]

imo this hand is very illustrative of a lot of pretty advanced poker concepts. Consider the following:

1. villains range is actually weaker betting the turn than if he had checked.
2. villain is capable of valuebetting almost every better hand than ours on the river.

[badgers]

Sucks that we flop showdown value though.

This makes no sense.

Renton this may sound retarded but do you think the turn bet size is a bit small for a double barrel? With such a small bet size it doesn't look like he's trying to make us fold, which would suggest he's either vbetting thin-ish or thinking of triple barreling? idk, maybe I'm over-thinking and super-exploitable for wanting to fold more frequently to a smaller bet...

[kmind]

I said that because I'd usually call preflop looking to bluff but not we have showdown value. I think calling pre is a lot better than what I originally thought. But yeah I take back that remark.

[Renton]

Sucks that we flop showdown value though.

This makes no sense.

Renton this may sound retarded but do you think the turn bet size is a bit small for a double barrel? With such a small bet size it doesn't look like he's trying to make us fold, which would suggest he's either vbetting thin-ish or thinking of triple barreling? idk, maybe I'm over-thinking and super-exploitable for wanting to fold more frequently to a smaller bet...

maybe, but if he's value-betting so thin then we're probably ahead no?

[badgers]

I was thinking more along the lines of stronger 9s and TT/JJ although this only makes up a fraction of his range. I could also argue for calling the river because a lot of draws missed and I've seen weak regs bet small with FDs on the turn to try and pot control instead of checking and having to face a large bet that could potentially be a float (ie. no implied odds to call).

I guess what I'm saying is that the small turn bet makes me either want to fold the turn or call the river based on the idea that I think he will 3barrel a lot because of the small turn bet. When the flush draw misses, folding the river seems weak having called the turn.

[Renton]

you might be right, just be careful in labeling too many scenarios as call/call or fold. Its rarely that simple.

[JinxT4]

With such a small bet size it doesn't look like he's trying to make us fold, which would suggest he's either vbetting thin-ish or thinking of triple barreling? idk, maybe I'm over-thinking and super-exploitable for wanting to fold more frequently to a smaller bet...

On this note, how bad would folding turn be?

[Renton]

pretty bad seeing as you don't have to be good very often in order to speculate

[d0zer]

miffed, no

bankit, no

op, played fine now fold river

Yeah I did, just kinda wondering about a call there, but I've done it before in so many similar spots vs similar villains and it seems like I'm almost always beat.

[CGKIII]

I like the line as played. However...

What about raise/folding turn?

The Q seems like a good card to 2nd-barrel, but when you raise he has to be scared of JT (if he hit the Q or has some draw, if he's got air he can just muck it there). We probably are good enough / improve enough to flat call the turn, but I like pressuring him with a raise.

If he calls, the river is icky. Supposing he checks, I probably fire 2/3 pot (this might be a shove, depending on our turn raise amount) if a non-diamond A or K hits (hoping to fold out whiffed Axd/Kxd), or if we improved. If anything else his, we check it down. If he bets, we fold unimproved.

[BankItDrew]

Why would raising flop be a bad decision?

Raising flop:
helps define villains hand
protects our hand
gives us control in the pot

I don't think either calling or raising flop is a much more +EV decision than the other.

[nutsinho]

played fine now fold or allin. bluff shoving is decent since i would play the same vs opp's betsizing in this hand with Q8/Q9

[covano]

fold the river

[Sup3rM4N]

Really curious to why raising the flop here is bad?

[badgers]

Really curious to why raising the flop here is bad?

because we have showdown value and we have no reason to be believe bluff raising is more +EV than what is clearly a +EV call. There hands with more equity against his raise calling range in our range that we can bluff-raise with, and he may even 3bet a lot of draws which would mean us folding the best hand when we could have just stuck with a +EV call...