Home game, tough decision for hero

[TLR]

Following is a hand my our home game from last week where a friend of mine was faced with an interesting decision

This is a 14 players 2 table Sng, nobody has been knocked out yet, 7 players in the table
Blinds are 5/10, average stack 300, stacks for relevant players
SB: about 150 - I was the SB in the hand
BB: about 270, BB is a relatively tight player, he come in late so he just set in, it is the 3rd or 4th hand he is playing
UTG: our hero, stack about 300, has a relatively tight image
CO: Loose aggressive player who has about 600 chips

Hero is dealt UTG
Hero limps, 2 folds, CO limps, button folds, SB completes, BB raises to 35, Hero calls, CO calls, SB calls

Flop:

SB checks, BB bets 50.
Considering both the bet size and the body language of BB our hero is pretty certain that BB does not have a strong hand, he is pretty sure he has AK or AQ. Assume there is no chance in hell he has a 9, and a pretty low but not 0 chance he has overpair
Assume that if BB has AA/KK/QQ he calls 100% of the time, if he has JJ/TT he will call about 50% of the time.

What do you think hero's move should be ?

[gingerwizard]

Man this is tough. You can make a great read on BB, and end up going busto to CO or SB showing up with 22, or any holding with a 9.

This is either a raise up to 110-120 or a fold for me. I just can't shove with CO and SB holding mystery cards

[Da GOAT]

easy enough call

[taipan168]

Preflop I would raise it up to 30, if our Hero has a tight image then a raise from UTG should get some respect. That's the nice thing about home games, because you all have some history you can play beyond level 0/1.

As played, I am torn between raising and calling, one thing for sure I am definitely not folding. To me the choice is between shoving it right now or raising it up to pot size (say 140 or so) and getting the rest in on the turn. I am honestly not sure what is best

[Da GOAT]

what do you think raising accomplishes?

imo if it gets allin on flop you are crushed. if you raise and are called are you happy shipping turn?

just call with position and see what other players will do.

[taipan168]

Sorry, meant to say that if I am raising I don't know what is best - shoving or raising and getting it AI on turn. Meh maybe just flat calling and seeing what action happens is best - but I am also conscious that stacks are pretty short here

[drmcboy]

if BB is so bad he folds JJ/TT to a raise 50% then we should raise but that doesn't make sense to me.

as played calling seems fine.

hero should raise pre flop

[baudib]

I think flat-calling is terrible here; this is the type of flop few hands connect with but CO/SB could feel comfortable floating with AX-type hands and BB can represent a gazillion overcards on the turn.

[TLR]

if BB is so bad he folds JJ/TT to a raise 50% then we should raise but that doesn't make sense to me.

This is my feeling based on knowledge of the BB style of play, Hero's precieved tightness and the fact that BB just drove 25 minutes to get to the game and does not want to get knocked off after 5 min

[TLR]

I think flat-calling is terrible here; this is the type of flop few hands connect with but CO/SB could feel comfortable floating with AX-type hands and BB can represent a gazillion overcards on the turn.

I think it is a raise or fold spot, I think calling is the worst option

[gingerwizard]

I think it is a raise or fold spot, I think calling is the worst option

The problem with the call for me is the two left to act behind. They would surely call wide on this flop getting nearly 5/1, and I still have no idea where I am in the hand and where I'll be on the turn. If I think I'm ahead I don't want people fishing when I hate any turn higher than a 9.

If I think I'm ahead and BB may fold some hands that beat me I should raise. But raising marginal hands for half my stack is dangerous with 2 other players around which is why a fold is also acceptable.

Say you call the 50 (1/5 of your stack), the others call getting 5-1 on whatever they have, J comes on the turn. Are you happy about shoving your PSB if checked to? You fold to a shove from one of the blinds?

Lastly, if you do raise and get a call, I doubt shipping it on the turn is a good play. I think you're crushed in the same way you would be if it gets all in on the flop.

[drmcboy]

They would surely call wide on this flop getting nearly 5/1

I don't understand the people saying stuff like this. You think someone is going to call behind with QT or A7? Most of the time we're going be HU with BB. If someone calls behind you can pretty safely check fold from there, I doubt anyone will bluff into this board 3 way on the turn.