Huge draw in limped pot. How to play it?

[DoanDiggy]

This flop was pretty crazy for my hand. The SB complete was pretty loose, but I was getting such good odds.... I was willing to felt the flop and was trying to figure out the best way to go about doing it with the most chips in the middle. Was that a mistake? What about the line I took?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $1.00+$0.20 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

MP3 (t1355)
CO (t1520)
Button (t1300)
Hero (SB) (t1440)
BB (t1470)
UTG (t2095)
UTG+1 (t1495)
MP1 (t1150)
MP2 (t1675)

Hero's M: 32.00

Preflop: Hero is SB with K, 6
UTG calls t30, 3 folds, MP3 calls t30, CO calls t30, 1 fold, Hero calls t15, BB checks

Flop: (t150) 7, 3, 4 (5 players)
Hero checks, BB checks, UTG checks, MP3 checks, CO bets t120, Hero raises to t240, 2 folds, MP3 calls t240, CO raises to t1490 (All-In), Hero calls t1170 (All-In), MP3 calls t1085 (All-In)

Note (edit): With my holdings against 4 top 40% ranges, I'm better than 44% according to PokerStove. Against a hand like A7 (or any other PP under K), I'm better than 50%. Even against two pair and a flopped straight I'm 40%. Against a flopped set I'm still better than 30%.

Further edit: For a better discussion of my potential equity here, see this followup post farther down in the thread.

[drmcboy]

I would go with bet/3 bet because you may be able to fold out 7x or a low PP with that line.

As played CR a lot more, you want folds, not calls. Also it sets you up for a turn shove.

[trilerian]

On this hand, I am really curious to other peoples advice. Mine, yeah fold pre. But you already said it was a loose call, so...

Why the check raise? If you were going to bet the flop, why didn't you just bet? Personally I would have just called the bet. I think I would have folded to the shove.

[DoanDiggy]

I would go with bet/3 bet because you may be able to fold out 7x or a low PP with that line.

As played CR a lot more, you want folds, not calls. Also it sets you up for a turn shove.

Thanks. Your advice makes a lot of sense in an SNG (which this was, of course)... we'd really like to get some chips in the middle and then shove to take down the pot, with a ton of outs if called. In a cash game, though, I think our equity is so good that maybe check/call (to get others to come along) or check/raise small (to induce a shove) makes a lot of sense. No?

Why the check raise? If you were going to bet the flop, why didn't you just bet? Personally I would have just called the bet. I think I would have folded to the shove.

With that board hitting a limper's range really well, and having 4 limpers, I wanted to give them a chance to juice the pot before I raised. I agree with you, though, that with only one bet and no folds yet (3 to act behind me), a call would have been better since it would have invited more people along. As for folding to a shove, I'm better than 50% against any pair, but maybe ICM says fold anyways.

[gingerwizard]

SB complete is fine.

Being willing to felt on this flop is not.

I don't follow your calculations. How many Ahxh hands will go in with you on such a flop? 65 also felts, and potentially sets.

You can't just put villains on ranges in terms of "top y% of hands" and say you're 40% to win.

You've got information you're not using, namely the betting patterns of opponents, Adjust their ranges accordingly due to their action and rerun it through poker stove.

[gingerwizard]

What I didn't say was that a check raise is good on the flop, but I'd raise more, and I'd probably fold to the shove, because you had your check raise called by mp3, and now 3-bet all in.

I'm thinking at least a set is out there, if not the nut straight and perhaps the nut flush draw. Your outs, if you have any are probably not all clean.

[drmcboy]

If someone is 50% vs your hand and there is a decent amount of money in the pot, would you rather they call or fold?

[mcatdog]

What I didn't say was that a check raise is good on the flop, but I'd raise more, and I'd probably fold to the shove, because you had your check raise called by mp3, and now 3-bet all in.

I'm thinking at least a set is out there, if not the nut straight and perhaps the nut flush draw. Your outs, if you have any are probably not all clean.

If they have a set, tough luck, you committed yourself to the pot when you check-raised huge. If you want to fold to a shove you need to check-raise to the size that the OP did.

[gingerwizard]

good point, hadn't thought about that.

I had the stack size OP had when he called the shove in mind

[DoanDiggy]

SB complete is fine.

Being willing to felt on this flop is not.

If we don't like this flop enough to felt it (I'm not saying we should), why are we completing the SB here? This is one of the best flops we could hope for, short of K6x, 66x, or a flopped flush.

How many Ahxh hands will go in with you on such a flop?

Considering the 2 hearts on the board and the 2 in my hand, how many Ahxh hands can I expect to run into here? This is certainly outweighed by the xhxh hands that I'm dominating here.

65 also felts, and potentially sets.

This is correct. I was thinking that at these stacks, enough pairs (esp QQ-88, 76, 75, and like J7+, maybe 66 and 55, too) get all-in here to balance this out. Maybe I'm not giving my opponents enough credit. In this case, I got all-in 3way up against A7 (no hearts) and 44, and I was still 34% to win it. This probably isn't the best result in a SNG (not bad in a cash game), but can I really be expecting to be up against a flopped set or flopped straight that often here?

You can't just put villains on ranges in terms of "top y% of hands" and say you're 40% to win.

You've got information you're not using, namely the betting patterns of opponents, Adjust their ranges accordingly due to their action and rerun it through poker stove.

I agree with this, I was just being lazy, and I thought it was an interesting theoretical result regardless. My mistake.

[gingerwizard]

If someone is 50% vs your hand and there is a decent amount of money in the pot, would you rather they call or fold?

Surely we're not doing that well. It would not surprise me to see us drawing to a 5, or even to a split pot here

[baudib]

I'm not sure how I feel about this one. If your M were like 15-20 I'd probably check-raise all-in here but meh...I'd prefer OESD+FD or at least a made hand like Kh4h to give yourself some showdown value vs. Ahxh. With two opps liking this flop a whole lot you are likely facing a flopped straight (giving you only 3 5s), a set or flush draw. Even if the flush draw is smaller than yours, it takes away two of your outs.

Let's say you are up against a set and Th9h. If the turn bricks you have only 5 hearts to give you a winning flush (as two of the remaining hearts would pair the board) and 3 more 5s for a straight. With this much action, you can't always assume your outs are really live.

[baudib]

If you're up against a flopped straight and Ahxh, your pot equity is only 4.3%.

Vs. a set and a smaller flush draw (that is drawing dead) you're still only 27.9%.

[DoanDiggy]

I made a more realistic range for my opponents to felt with here. I think it's pretty reasonable at these stakes: 33+, any two hearts, 65, 75, 76, J+7, and 52s. For some donks it will be wider (e.g. gutshots, Ahx, any two broadways, any pair, etc.) and for better players it will be narrower, so I think this is a good starting point.

vs 1 opponent:

Board: 7h 3h 4d

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	52.079%  	51.12% 	00.96% 	         88058 	     1654.00   { Kh6h }
Hand 1: 	47.921%  	46.96% 	00.96% 	         80894 	     1654.00   { 33+, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, A7s, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah2h, K7s, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, Qh8h, Q7s, Qh5h, Qh4h, Qh2h, JhTh, Jh9h, Jh8h, J7s, Jh5h, Jh4h, Jh2h, Th9h, Th8h, Th5h, Th4h, Th2h, 9h8h, 9h5h, 9h4h, 9h2h, 8h5h, 8h4h, 8h2h, 75s+, 65s, 5h4h, 52s, 4h2h, A7o, K7o, Q7o, J7o, 75o+, 65o }

vs 2 opponents:

Board: 7h 3h 4d

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hand 0: 	41.815%  	40.51% 	01.30% 	       9611558 	   308358.67   { Kh6h }
Hand 1: 	29.093%  	27.61% 	01.49% 	       6549095 	   352754.67   { 33+, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, A7s, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah2h, K7s, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, Qh8h, Q7s, Qh5h, Qh4h, Qh2h, JhTh, Jh9h, Jh8h, J7s, Jh5h, Jh4h, Jh2h, Th9h, Th8h, Th5h, Th4h, Th2h, 9h8h, 9h5h, 9h4h, 9h2h, 8h5h, 8h4h, 8h2h, 75s+, 65s, 5h4h, 52s, 4h2h, A7o, K7o, Q7o, J7o, 75o+, 65o }
Hand 2: 	29.093%  	27.61% 	01.49% 	       6549095 	   352754.67   { 33+, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, A7s, Ah5h, Ah4h, Ah2h, K7s, QhJh, QhTh, Qh9h, Qh8h, Q7s, Qh5h, Qh4h, Qh2h, JhTh, Jh9h, Jh8h, J7s, Jh5h, Jh4h, Jh2h, Th9h, Th8h, Th5h, Th4h, Th2h, 9h8h, 9h5h, 9h4h, 9h2h, 8h5h, 8h4h, 8h2h, 75s+, 65s, 5h4h, 52s, 4h2h, A7o, K7o, Q7o, J7o, 75o+, 65o }

I'm worse than I thought against 1 opponent, but doing pretty well against 2. It looks like my goal of getting more players to come along was a pretty good one, even though I went about it the wrong way (check/call/shove would have been much better).

What about calling all-in with 2 players coming along here? In a cash game this would be a no-brainer, but what about early in a SNG? Is better than 40% good enough?

My vote is yes: if I win, I have 4295 chips, more than 2 times as many as 2nd place, with only 7 players left. I like my chances of cruising to victory here. If I lose, all I lost was a smaller-than-starting-size stack, and I can just sign up for another one.

I know it's strange that I keep mentioning cash games, but the differences between cash games and tournaments really intrigues me.

[drmcboy]

If someone is 50% vs your hand and there is a decent amount of money in the pot, would you rather they call or fold?

Surely we're not doing that well. It would not surprise me to see us drawing to a 5, or even to a split pot here

my comment was in reference to this:

In a cash game, though, I think our equity is so good that maybe check/call (to get others to come along) or check/raise small (to induce a shove) makes a lot of sense.

my point was:

this is more limit thinking where you usually have no FE anyway. you would much rather someone fold when at most we have 50% equity.

[DoanDiggy]

Ahh, I see. Thanks for the insight.