AQ, Final Three of $18,000 Guarantee

[baudib]

I just finished this so I can't think straight. Is this the right move here?
My image is uber tight and I have shown down nothing but AA, 88, AJ and sets at FT and have only pushed over a raise once.
Button has been stealing constantly and he and SB have had several reraising wars.
Because of this I give the SB reraise less credit here. I think I played as well as I could have but it sucks to get so close. If I fold SB and Button are likely all-in against each other. But folding AQ three-handed seems so weak....

No Limit Holdem Tournament
$18000 Guarantee
3 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
BTN SickWitIt1 (513004)
SB Flushy Mcallin1 (307028)
BB Hero (307968)

Blinds: 5000/10000 Ante 1000

Pre-flop: (18000, 3 players) Hero is BB
SickWitIt1 raises to 30000, Flushy Mcallin1 raises to 80000, Hero goes all-in 306968

[Sprayed]

With the previous action that you described, I don't see any problem with it.

[baudib]

I mean, callling is out of the question...Is it possible to fold knowing I can make another $1000 with a nitty laydown?

[bigspenda73]

why would you consider this a nitty laydown? Can you show something supporting a shove vs a fold other than maternal instinct?

[baudib]

No, I can't, that's why I'm asking what the math would be. I have just over $3,000 locked up, if big stack eliminates SB I get another $1,000. First pays $6,000.

IMO, I'm well ahead of Button's stealing range AND likely ahead of SB's reraising range vs. Button. I'm more inclined to fold preflop HU vs. the SB.

[bigspenda73]

you keep wanting us to do the math for you.

How about you learn to do it yourself yo.

[baudib]

I thought the purpose of the forum is to help each other learn about poker. My bad.

[bigspenda73]

LOL WHAT WOULD YOU LEARN IF I TOLD YOU THE ANSWER

I'm through, xman, bring on the ignore feature please

[baudib]

It's so cute when you play hard to get.

[mcatdog]

I thought the purpose of the forum is to help each other learn about poker. My bad.

I don't think Spenda needs to rag on you quite as much he has been, but he is right. This forum isn't a questionnaire. The point of posting hands is figure out a thought process so you don't have to post the same question again next time. If you're reluctant to do any of the work yourself then why should people help.

[baudib]

Who says I'm reluctant to do any of the work? If I knew anything about how ICM or how to calculate it I suppose I would never need to ask questions again?

I guess I will just figure it out and leave you kids alone.

[HarleyGuy13]

Damn I wanted to learn if I was thinking correctly on this one myself. I would think if it's going to cost me 80K to call a pot of 138K and I'm thinking 6 good outs (I want to at least pair) then I'm gonna fold.
Aren't you getting less than 2:1 pot odds and only about a 26% chance of hitting one of your outs?
Hell I may have my math all fvcked up with I'd sure like to know if I'm thinking it through correctly or not??

BIGSPENDA... I WANT TO LEARN PLEASE COME BACK!!!

[baudib]

You have a 32% chance to flop a pair (assuming your cards are live)

[HarleyGuy13]

Damn I was thinking turn and river... So actually I think the odds are even better yet but I'm SO CONFUSED! So if your number is correct and you have an additional 26% of picking it up on the turn or river ............

[STR8M8]

In my opinion you should have folded the AQ and know way pushed with all your chips after the pot has been raised two times in front of you. Sure these guys have been battling back and forth but when one of them drops you still have a nice chip stack of 300k+ and when one of them bites the dust you win at least $500 bucks or more so why waist all your chips on a hand you haven't seen any of the community cards yet. Ace queen is over rated hand in my opinion, especially when it comes to pushing all your chips in pre-flop.