Raise push or fold?

[sk8r_daniel]

I seem to be having trouble with marginal hands in early position. I have an average to decent stack but my M is below 10. Should I just shove to double up and get a better chance at winning the tournament? Or should I wait for a better spot because the average stack has such a low M? Any advice on how average stack size changes the play would be great.

PokerStars Game #22602506845: Tournament #123490259, $5.00+$0.50 Hold'em No Limit - Level XVI (1500/3000) - 2008/12/03 22:13:24 ET
Table '123490259 14' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: BCSmut33 (28806 in chips)
Seat 2: boisin (83756 in chips)
Seat 3: roughrider19 (36603 in chips)
Seat 4: coryward (8904 in chips)
Seat 5: 10-2-4 (36909 in chips)
Seat 6: phillyJbizee (42871 in chips)
Seat 7: billybig (32372 in chips)
Seat 8: zhukvlad (31453 in chips)
Seat 9: emmalovesme (45147 in chips)
BCSmut33: posts the ante 300
boisin: posts the ante 300
roughrider19: posts the ante 300
coryward: posts the ante 300
10-2-4: posts the ante 300
phillyJbizee: posts the ante 300
billybig: posts the ante 300
zhukvlad: posts the ante 300
emmalovesme: posts the ante 300
10-2-4: posts small blind 1500
phillyJbizee: posts big blind 3000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to emmalovesme [Th Ah]

[baudib]

I'd fold.

[Squeaky_Midget1]

I think how far you are away from the money plays a big factor

[Penneywize]

Meh. You're right, it is a tough spot; if you raise, someone in LP might repush you with something like middle pair. In later position this is a raise imo... But in that spot, I agree a fold is more appropriate.

[sk8r_daniel]

Yeah, I had just made the money at the time and there were 55 people left. So I was still fairly far away from any real payout. What kind of M do you think would be a push? <7?

[mcatdog]

This is a push or fold situation and there are programs that tell you what you should do in these situations. If you want good advice then you should use one of those programs. Alternatively, you could rely on other people's preconceived notions which aren't backed up by any logical reasoning.

[dthorne04]

Alternatively, you could rely on other people's preconceived notions which aren't backed up by any logical reasoning.

I lol'ed.

[bigspenda73]

This is a push or fold situation and there are programs that tell you what you should do in these situations. If you want good advice then you should use one of those programs. Alternatively, you could rely on other people's preconceived notions which aren't backed up by any logical reasoning.

lawl I get a similar response like this in AIM all the time

[bigspenda73]

I'd fold.

I mean this is what is bad with forums today

someone like baudib thinks he cant post a 2 word answer to a complex situation w/o supporting his claim.

Not only is he wrong (as he would know if he ran the math EVER) but someone might actually take his advice. That's the scary part, is that someone who did no research into the matter (all I can go off of is the fact that you said "I'd fold") comes in here and offers the WRONG advice.

If you're going to be short, at least give OP the correct advice.

[Kijjo]

One factor to consider as well is how loose aggressive/verge of insanity maniacs some tourneys get just after the bubble. I've been a few where if you're talking the first few after the bubble pops, pushing this could get 3 or 4 callers.
Not sure you can factor that into any program, just offering a thought to make things messier.

[fjuanl]

You never really can know for sure in these spots, but SNGWiz says its never -EV regardless of calling ranges. The problem is its a VERY slim edge, especially with realistic calling ranges. I'd personally fold this because its typically around +0.10 EV, which just barelyyy breakeven. Its definetly a shove/fold situation with 15bbs. Then again SNGWiz is not designed for MTTs and maybe the edge is much greater. I don't think you can really ever know what the best play here is, its very close

[sk8r_daniel]

Thanks for the advice. I'm glad to know that it wasn't really a clear cut decision. I pushed the hand and got called by QQ, but wasn't really disappointed by the decision. I think in the future I will fold these slim edges when I have a chip advantage over others....and I should probably get SitngoWizard.

[bigspenda73]

ruh roh you passed up an edge

PAGING DTHORNE EDGE-PASSING POLICE

[baudib]

It is a complex situation but there are a lot of factors we don't know about, such as the loose/tightness of the players yet to act as well as your own table image. Personally, by this time in the tournament with this type of stack, I've been push/folding for a while and the rest of the table is probably sick of it by now. Thus I'm looking for a slightly better hand to get it in with than ATs with six left to act.

[bigspenda73]

sigh

I give up on you baudib, go play live poker or something

[baudib]

Well if you have better advice on how to handle incorporate table image and style of the table into the equation, I'd love to hear it. Personally, I'm dropping AT in this position when more than likely, I've open pushed or pushed over limpers/raisers 5 times in the past 3 orbits.

p.s. the last time I played live, I pushed ATo UTG five-handed with 14 bb (tripled up!)

[Fjaman]

you could make a standard raise to around 7kish and see what happends probably fold to a reraise if you dont have a specific read on the op. If you get a call analyze the flop and make a decision there...

Even if you fold to a reraise you can let the blinds pass you and still have a stack of M ~5.

I dont like A10 from EP esp. much but since it suited i would probably use this play in this situation...

[chardrian]

sigh

I give up on you baudib, go play live poker or something

I was gonna send u a pm to figure out what is up your ass, but I think u know me well enough that you won't get your panties in a bunch by me posting this here.

You are being an ass to baudib and from what I have seen, you have no basis for it.

[chardrian]

p.s. I think this is so close that you can't go wrong.

[bigspenda73]

you can go play live poker too

[baudib]

It doesn't bother me at all.

[chardrian]

ok - glad I'm not the only one who rarely, if ever, gets pms.

[mcatdog]

It is a complex situation but there are a lot of factors we don't know about, such as the loose/tightness of the players yet to act as well as your own table image. Personally, by this time in the tournament with this type of stack, I've been push/folding for a while and the rest of the table is probably sick of it by now. Thus I'm looking for a slightly better hand to get it in with than ATs with six left to act.

Did you see the post where fjuanl said it's +EV to shove regardless of the range people call us with? Our hand is so strong, those other factors you mentioned are actually irrelevant.

you could make a standard raise to around 7kish and see what happends probably fold to a reraise if you dont have a specific read on the op.

Look at the stacks behind you. Then X out this option because it's not feasible with so many 10 to 12 BB stacks behind you. Stop raise/folding to these size of stacks ever, your ROI just went up by 10%.

You never really can know for sure in these spots, but SNGWIZ says its never -EV regardless of calling ranges. The problem is its a VERY slim edge, especially with realistic calling ranges. I'd personally fold this because its typically around +0.10 EV, which just barelyyy breakeven.

When you shove a hand like this your edge is going to be on a spectrum where the horizontal axis is the % of hands in your opponents' calling range.



If they're folding almost everything, it's way +EV, if they're calling with really dumb hands like JT then it's also way +EV. If they're calling with the right range, then your EV is smaller, but it's still positive with this particular hand.

I don't see how you can say this is "a VERY slim edge" when it's still an edge if you make the most pessimistic assumptions possible. As others have said, we don't know what people's calling ranges are, more than likely it's not going to be at the exact minimum so our edge is going to be more than +0.10. Assuming the worst possible calling ranges, and then folding because that edge isn't big enough, is just overly pessimistic, nitty, bad poker IMO.

The bottom of our shoving range is usually actually going to be -EV face-up but we still shove it because people can't call given how many stronger hands are also in our shoving range.

[mcatdog]

Also: you should be taking smaller edges in a MTT than in a SNG because a MTT lasts a lot longer but the rake is the same. During your average MTT you get a lot more opportunities to apply +0.10 edges and if you pass all of them up there's a compounding effect that will hurt your ROI a lot.

[fjuanl]

very nice posts mcatdog

[dthorne04]

i'm proud to say i'm an mcatdog fan. teach me plz?

[Nakamura]

Interesting thread with good points on both sides. I don't play MTT, but given the choice I'd probably have folded. It's interesting to see why this probably the wrong choice.

Also: you should be taking smaller edges in a MTT than in a SNG because a MTT lasts a lot longer but the rake is the same. During your average MTT you get a lot more opportunities to apply +0.10 edges and if you pass all of them up there's a compounding effect that will hurt your ROI a lot.

Does this imply an above average estimation of +EV edges? We are talking about very small edges here, presumably we aren't going to get these edges right everytime. So somewhere along the way we are making some -EV decisions as well.

[Sprayed]

It is a complex situation but there are a lot of factors we don't know about, such as the loose/tightness of the players yet to act as well as your own table image. Personally, by this time in the tournament with this type of stack, I've been push/folding for a while and the rest of the table is probably sick of it by now. Thus I'm looking for a slightly better hand to get it in with than ATs with six left to act.

Did you see the post where fjuanl said it's +EV to shove regardless of the range people call us with? Our hand is so strong, those other factors you mentioned are actually irrelevant.

you could make a standard raise to around 7kish and see what happends probably fold to a reraise if you dont have a specific read on the op.

Look at the stacks behind you. Then X out this option because it's not feasible with so many 10 to 12 BB stacks behind you. Stop raise/folding to these size of stacks ever, your ROI just went up by 10%.

You never really can know for sure in these spots, but SNGWIZ says its never -EV regardless of calling ranges. The problem is its a VERY slim edge, especially with realistic calling ranges. I'd personally fold this because its typically around +0.10 EV, which just barelyyy breakeven.

When you shove a hand like this your edge is going to be on a spectrum where the horizontal axis is the % of hands in your opponents' calling range.



If they're folding almost everything, it's way +EV, if they're calling with really dumb hands like JT then it's also way +EV. If they're calling with the right range, then your EV is smaller, but it's still positive with this particular hand.

I don't see how you can say this is "a VERY slim edge" when it's still an edge if you make the most pessimistic assumptions possible. As others have said, we don't know what people's calling ranges are, more than likely it's not going to be at the exact minimum so our edge is going to be more than +0.10. Assuming the worst possible calling ranges, and then folding because that edge isn't big enough, is just overly pessimistic, nitty, bad poker IMO.

The bottom of our shoving range is usually actually going to be -EV face-up but we still shove it because people can't call given how many stronger hands are also in our shoving range.

Also: you should be taking smaller edges in a MTT than in a SNG because a MTT lasts a lot longer but the rake is the same. During your average MTT you get a lot more opportunities to apply +0.10 edges and if you pass all of them up there's a compounding effect that will hurt your ROI a lot.

very nice. sticky?

[Sabr1988]

Depending on how many had folded and called i would call, but if someone went AI or made a big raise, i would fold, knowing i still got a really high stack and dont have to worry.

[drmcboy]

Depending on how many had folded and called i would call, but if someone went AI or made a big raise, i would fold, knowing i still got a really high stack and dont have to worry.

welcome to FTR

OP is UTG

I would not limp any hand except perhaps AA with this stack size. I would read the thread again.

[poker3player333]

You have to consider the payouts and where the money starts paying. If you're in the money and the table has been playing lag i'd push here, but like i said it all depends

[Sabr1988]

Depending on how many had folded and called i would call, but if someone went AI or made a big raise, i would fold, knowing i still got a really high stack and dont have to worry.

welcome to FTR

OP is UTG

I would not limp any hand except perhaps AA with this stack size. I would read the thread again.

Well thank you.

Hoho actually i won with AT today against a pair of kings on his hand Luck luck and luck.