Top pair, questionable kicker in middle of large MTT

[Ian]

This was one I had to think about a little bit -- was wondering what you guys thought. Given his UTG raise, and his re-raise on the flop, my fear was that most hands he would have here would have me beat -- AK, AJ, AT, KQ, JJ, TT and the very unlikely AA were all way ahead here. It seems like the only hands I could reasonably beat him on were were KK, QQ, A-rag and he was representing strength post-flop despite and Ace on the board. Still, the pot odds were good.

Do you guys agree with my play pre-flop, my "donk bet" on the flop, and do you think calling is the right move after his all-in?

Thanks!

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $5.00+$0.50 Tournament, 1500/3000 Blinds 300 Ante (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG+1 (t27091)
MP1 (t71012)
MP2 (t29382)
MP3 (t128947)
CO (t48646)
Button (t6720)
SB (t86434)
Hero (BB) (t92355)
UTG (t56759)

Hero's M: 12.83

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, Q
UTG raises to t7255, 7 folds, Hero calls t4255

Flop: (t18710) A, J, 10 (2 players)
Hero bets t10000, UTG raises to t49204 (All-In), Hero...

[DoanDiggy]

I think you have to fold here. You are only hoping that UTG has KK, QQ, or a pure bluff. You are losing to AK, AJ, AT, KQ, AA, JJ, TT. Even hands like Asxs, Ksxs, and Qsxs are in pretty good shape against you. This is kind of tough because it either looks like a super-strong hand wanting a call from two pair (i.e. flopped set or straight), a good draw wanting to see two more cards while adding some fold equity, or a hand like KK or QQ who is thinking, "I don't want to lay this down.... At least I have 6 outs if I'm called."

I don't mind leading this flop, although a check/raise might be better. If you do lead, I think you're going to have to lead a lot bigger. Your bet is barely over 1/2 pot.... it looks weak and you're just begging your opponent to bluff shove over you or flat call and make a play at you on the turn (especially with a drawing hand). If you lead something like 15000 here, you can more easily fold to a shove knowing that your opponent probably has you dominated.

Villain-dependent, I've begun folding AQ to preflop raises a lot more, especially if I'm going to be out of position. The reason is because of just these sorts of flops which become really hard to play. The only flop we really like is a Q-high one, and then we are still getting owned by QQ+, flopped sets, and aggressive players who can make us fold a better hand. An A-high rainbow is reasonable, but if the villain is aggressive postflop we can often end up either folding the best hand or getting value-towned by AK or 2 pair. If the raiser is opening a wide range, I'm almost always 3betting and sometimes flatting AQs from the button.

This particular hand is pretty tough since we're in the big blind, our AQ is suited, and the preflop raise isn't even 2.5x. If UTG has been tight, though, calling and then leading this flop is pretty bad IMO. If UTG has been loose, I like a reraise preflop.

Caveat: I'm not a great player by any means, and I'd love to see someone else's comments on this. I mostly felt the need to post because I used to be of the mentality that folding AQ preflop was weak, but since I've started doing it a bit more, I'm finding that I'm avoiding a lot of tough spots that I was running into by trying to flat call and play it postflop.

[DoanDiggy]

I went ahead and put this in Pokerstove. Note that you aren't quite getting 2:1 to call, so you need to be better than 33% to call here, and that's not taking MTT strategy into account. Anyways, here are some ranges for your perusal:

A pretty reasonable tight range:

Hand 0: 	18.476%  	15.94% 	02.53% 	          6156 	      977.50   { AdQd }
Hand 1: 	81.524%  	78.99% 	02.53% 	         30499 	      977.50   { AA, JJ-TT, AKs, AJs-ATs, KQs, AKo, AJo-ATo, KQo }

Adding in KK, QQ, AQ, and JT:

Hand 0: 	33.462%  	26.98% 	06.48% 	         16830 	     4040.50   { AdQd }
Hand 1: 	66.538%  	60.06% 	06.48% 	         37459 	     4040.50   { TT+, ATs+, KQs, JTs, ATo+, KQo, JTo }

Adding in some big draws:

Hand 0: 	37.040%  	31.41% 	05.63% 	         23325 	     4177.00   { AdQd }
Hand 1: 	62.960%  	57.33% 	05.63% 	         42571 	     4177.00   { TT+, ATs+, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KQs, Ks9s, Ks8s, Ks7s, Qs9s, JTs, ATo+, KQo, JTo }

Adding in some pair + gutshot hands:

Hand 0: 	52.449%  	47.34% 	05.11% 	         54833 	     5919.00   { AdQd }
Hand 1: 	47.551%  	42.44% 	05.11% 	         49159 	     5919.00   { TT+, ATs+, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KTs+, Ks9s, Ks8s, Ks7s, QTs+, Qs9s, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

Adding in some total bluffing:

Hand 0: 	63.006%  	59.21% 	03.79% 	         96725 	     6195.00   { AdQd }
Hand 1: 	36.994%  	33.20% 	03.79% 	         54235 	     6195.00   { 22+, ATs+, As9s, As8s, As7s, As6s, As5s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KTs+, Ks9s, Ks8s, Ks7s, QTs+, Qs9s, JTs, ATo+, KTo+, QTo+, JTo }

In other words, this is really villain-dependent . If he's spewy, it's an insta-call. If he's pretty solid, it's an insta-fold. Most of the time, I'm not risking it. With the size of our stack, we can find better spots to get chips than this. We've invested less than 15K chips to find out that we likely don't have the best hand, no need to put another 40K (over half of our current stack) in there.

[Ian]

Thanks so much for the thoughtful responses, Doan. Unfortunately I really didn't have much of a read on the villain, so it really had me in a fix. I'll think over your critique.

[DoanDiggy]

Without reads, I think I'm raise/folding preflop a lot in this spot. Something like 16000-18000 should be good enough. I don't take kindly to my blinds being stolen, his preflop raise is small, and you want to let people know that your blinds don't come cheap. If he had less chips or was in late position, I'd probably just shove over him. Again, I'm not sure how +EV this is, so comments by a reg would be helpful.

[fjuanl]

I think defending this is fine and wouldn't recommend 3betting. AQs isnt exactly crushing a randoms UTG range. You'll definetly be crushed by UTGs shove range if we decide to 3bet. But if villain is in middle/late position, I think 3betting or just shoving is the best play

Bet/folding this would probably be the worst line possible besides check/folding. Your getting about 2/1 and your second range seems reasonable, so its about a breakeven call assuming about 33% equity.

Despite allowing villain to take a free card, I would still rather check/raise even tho there are a ton of scare cards. Check/raising does the best job of getting villain to put in chips where he's in bad shape.

[DoanDiggy]

Thanks for correcting my errors fjuanl, especially the point about calling here with AQs instead of raising it.

I was initially thinking that a check/raise (How much? What to do on the turn if we don't shove flop? What if he overbets the flop behind our check?) was probably best on that flop, so I'm glad you agree with that idea. As played though, I'm not sure I like taking the breakeven call in this spot. Folding leaves us over 10M as the 3rd-biggest stack, but calling and losing 65% of the time puts us under 5M as the 4th-shortest stack. In a cash game it's obviously a call, but in this spot in a tournament? Then again, folding makes us look like we're leading lightly here, and we're just inviting ourselves to be pushed off hands in the future. Then again again, I'm often donk-leading big hands and not much else, so I don't mind that too much.

Regardless, this predicament is a good argument for not leading the flop. It would be much better to give the villain a chance to c-bet with a hand we're dominating so that we have a better chance of getting our money in good. If he checks behind, we can generally play a lot of turns as if our hand is best.

[baudib]

It sounds weak but I like check-calling. You would love to see a free card here, you might be good and a lot of bad cards can slow down even a set of aces. A lot of the hands you're beating (KK-QQ) might check and a lot of the hands currently crushing you (AA, JJ, TT) will check here (esp. at $5 level).

[Sabr1988]

Depends on how you played your other hands, were you calling allmost every hand, and what about him, what kinda hands does he make such a rush on, try to read his earlier hands, i think that might give you a picture of what he is playing.

Watching his AI on the flop after your 10K raise, i would think that he had AK, but as i said, it depends on both your, and his play. If he think you are bluffing he could just go AI with a lower pair or something, just try to read your opponents next time, and dont play so that you look to weak.