Weird QQ spot, shortstack sitting out ($27)

[taipan168]

SB is a terrible limp/calltard, very loose passive. Stats something like 42/4 up to this point. UTG is going to eat the BB very next hand and will essentially be AI in the next two hands.

What's your preflop move here?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $25+$2 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds (3 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t320) - sitting out
Hero (BB) (t1810)
Button (t5265)
SB (t6105)

Hero's M: 6.03

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, Q
2 folds, SB calls t100, Hero ????

[caddie444]

SB is a terrible limp/calltard, very loose passive.

If this is true you need to check preflop and fold to any flop heat unless you hit set IMO. No need to risk bubbling out.

[gingerwizard]

Oh god, horrible. I just had one like this. Won the tourn though

I think it's a fold anyway but your read makes it so. Horrible to give up on the ladies, but the blinds are low enough for you to survive until ITM, then use your push fold game to chip up.

[gingerwizard]

lol just notice you're in BB. Well check fold maybe best unless set.

[bigspenda73]

I cannot imagine a world where shoving QQ here is -EV

[a500lbgorilla]

SB is a terrible limp/calltard, very loose passive.

If this is true you need to check preflop and fold to any flop heat unless you hit set IMO. No need to risk bubbling out.

if this is true, sngs are the devil's game.

[baudib]

Even Harrington says you can risk bubbling with QQ.

[caddie444]

SB is a terrible limp/calltard, very loose passive.

If this is true you need to check preflop and fold to any flop heat unless you hit set IMO. No need to risk bubbling out.

if this is true, sngs are the devil's game.

Somebody do the Maths! I don't know how!

Personally I'm only shoving KK+ here... but I'm probably wrong because I don't think it would make a a huge difference...

I guess what we need is villains calling range if we shove, maybe Tai could help us out on that one?

[baudib]

Whatever his range is, we're beating it.

[caddie444]

Whatever his range is, we're beating it.

Yes this is true, but according to ICM we could be crushing his range and it will still be wrong to shove if there's a high likely hood we could get called and go busto with the presence of the shorty.

But like I said, I don't know the maths for this one, so I don't know if it applies to this situation...

[caddie444]

Alright I'll give it a go:

1. Chips under various scenarios:
- If Hero C/F any non set board he will have 1610 chips
- If Hero shoves and gets called and wins he will have 3620 chips
- If Hero shoves and villain folds he will have 2010 chips
- If Hero shoves, gets called and loses he will bust

* of course when we do flop a set we will get our money in, but villain may not double us up, (ie he will fold, or call and win)
and it happens a relatively small percentage of the time so I won't include the impact it will have

2. Value of these chips calculated as % of the prize pool (remembering that even if Hero has 100% of the chips these are only worth 50% of the prize pool)

- Hero C/F (1610 chips) = 22.41% of prize pool
- Hero shoves and wins (3620 chips) = 29.96% of the prize pool
- Hero shoves and villain folds (2010 chips) = 24.22% of the prize pool
- Hero shoves and loses = 0% of the prize pool

3. Now I'm speculating, but for fun lets say he limps with

66-22,ATs-A2s,K2s+,Q6s+,J6s+,T6s+,96s+,85s+,74s+,64s+,53s+,4 3s,ATo-A2o,K2o+,Q6o+,J6o+,T6o+,96o+,86o+,76o,65o,53o+,43o

which is 710 hands (I compensated for the fact that we hold two queens in my calculations)

and he will call an all in shove with

66-22,ATs-A2s,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,ATo-A2o,K9o+,Q9o+,JTo,T9o

which is 284 hands

Therefore chance that villain will fold to a push is (710-284)/710= 60%



4. Using pokerstove, hero's QQ is 73.49% against hands that villain will call with :

(ie- 66-22,ATs-A2s,K9s+,QTs+,JTs,T9s,ATo-A2o,K9o+,Q9o+,JTo,T9o)

Hero’s overall share of the prize pool if Hero pushes:

- 60% of the time villain folds and hero's stack is worth 24.22% of the prize pool
- (40% * 73.49%) = 29.4% of the time opp calls and hero winso so hero's stack is worth 29.96% of the prize pool
- (40% * 26.52%) = 10.6% of the time opp calls and hero loses so he busts out

5. So hero's % of the prize pool by pushing is (60% * 24.22%) + (29.4% * 29.96%) + (10.6% * 0) = 23.34%


Hero has 23.34% of the prize pool if he shoves and 22.41% if he folds.

So it is +EV, which proves a500lbgorilla and Spenda are degenerates, and that the devil plays at full ring

[gingerwizard]

Proves nothing and discounts BB sitting out with 0 BBs and fact that he'll be out and you definitely money here.

Issue is that the (MATHS?!) here is wrong. That is because the assumptions it is based on are wrong, and if ICM says this is a call, I'll gladly illustrate where the assumptions fall down.

ICM is a mathematical model that is useful in certain situations, but is deeply flawed due to its basis on assumptions that often do not hold, such as here. In this case the most obviously flawed assumption (among others is that each chip is the same (ticket) to the win. But BB sitting out and cannot win essentially, so his chips are dead, and he will be gone before you.

[caddie444]

discounts BB sitting out with 0 BBs and fact that he'll be out and you definitely money here.

Good Lord I totally did not take this into account, I forgot he was sitting out.

[baudib]

Anyone like a go-and-go here?

[gingerwizard]

no. I like waiting till shortie busts then going.

[caddie444]

I would check/raise just to see you what your opponents do, though I think they would fold. If they re raise your raise then you should fold, but that is just my opinion.

wat

[baudib]

Fk this. Playing QQ weak-tight here will make the poker gods curse you forever. Get it in.

[taipan168]

OK, for better or for worse (probably for worse) I decided to check here and this is what happened:

Preflop: Hero is BB with Q, Q
2 folds, SB calls t100, Hero checks

Flop: (t400) 2, 10, 8 (2 players)
SB bets t200, Hero ????

[Nakamura]

Once you've checked pre-flop I think you have to give it up. If you raise it up to 600 (and opp is decent) he should realise he can push ATC over you and you will have to fold w/o the nuts.

I don't like pushing AI here either, as there is too much risk for too little reward. Calling the flop is an option, although you are likely to face a 2nd barrel. In my mind I either push pre or just give up. I think my choice here is just to give up.

[rong]

No way I'm letting that go.

I'm pushing PF and happy for a call. If I double now I'm in a much betrer position here. If not then I'll take the blinds and be happy enough. If you win, the chip distribution is 5265, 4295, 3620 & 320. If you want to win this, you need to double up sooner or later, and you aren't very likely to get a better chance that this.

Plus, if small stack gets lucky and stays in for another round, I'm hoping I'll be steeling blinds too as nobody really wants to call for what would then be (assuming I'd one with QQ) well over half their stack.

But that said, I tend to be too aggressive in these situations and find myself in 4th far, far too often.

[baudib]

Um, call flop, try to get to showdown cheaply?

[gingerwizard]

Um, call flop, try to get to showdown cheaply?

+1

Position rules

[mattiesmat]

I would just shove it preflop and I can't imagine it being -ev.

[caddie444]

Um, call flop, try to get to showdown cheaply?

"To a dark place this line of thought will take us"




Might not be wrong, but it sure is dark...

[kevster]

I cannot imagine a world where shoving QQ here is -EV

It's +EV right enough but getting out of the hand cheaply might be more +EV in this specific spot.