2 calling spots 1 off bubble

[gingerwizard]

I think I know the answers, but would like to see.

Are these calls? Both villains are the players on the table I don't consider to be horrendous.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00+$0.50 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds 25 Ante (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

SB (t2125)
BB (t3195)
UTG (t2565)
Hero (MP) (t4406)
Button (t1209)

Hero's M: 10.37

Preflop: Hero is MP with 4, 4
1 fold, Hero raises to t600, 1 fold, SB raises to t2100 (All-In), Hero?

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00+$0.50 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds 25 Ante (5 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t5325)
MP (t2820)
Button (t2190)
Hero (SB) (t2031)
BB (t1134)

Hero's M: 4.78

Preflop: Hero is SB with 10, 10
2 folds, Button raises to t2165 (All-In), Hero?

[bigspenda73]

Hand 1 is a great example of why making it 2.5bbs is better later in tournaments/sngs. As is, you're getting 2:1 which is pretty much the equity I see you having against 77+,AJs+,AQo+. Add in the fact that you get to own the bubble if you win the pot, thus increasing your chances even more for a win I like it.

The BB's stack is hand 2 should tighten the button's range a little bit if you give him credit for not sucking. However, I don't see how this isn't a call. I have us with like 60% equity against a decent shoving range.

[taipan168]

First hand (44) - open raise is fine (I like 3x BB when there are antes at the 100/200 ante 25), now it's time to fold. On a chip EV basis I think it's a call but once you add in the ICM tax it's a fold IMO.

Second hand (TT) - it would be cold day in hell that I would fold this. Fist pump call!

[gingerwizard]

This is interesting, and is one of the things I've been thinking about when it comes to ICM.

We have two pieces of advice:

1 says that the pot odds against his range are good enough and add in the fact we get to own the bubble if we win makes this a call.

The other says the ICM tax makes it a fold.

I suspect that there is something deeper worth thinking about here.

If we call and win, we get to pwn the bubble. Meaning we should be able to dominate and gain a massive stack. Our probability of winning the tournament will increase and in a way that ICM does not take into account.

I.e. the $EV answer that an ICM calculation gives to the play of calling is too low.

The really interesting question is just how much is ICM leaving off of our $EV in situations like this? And how (if at all) should we adjust our ranges?

The other interesting debate is the 2.5x vs 3x. But I don't want to detract from a potentially important discussion

[taipan168]

OK, I'll run the ICM on this:
- If you fold you will have 3781 chips worth 25.9% of the prize pool
- If you call and win you will have 6806 chips worth 37.4% of the prize pool
- If you call and lose you will have 2281 chips worth 18.3% of the prize pool

Therefore, you need to be (25.9 - 18.3)/(37.4 - 18.3) = 39.7% to win against opp's shove over range to make this a good call.

Against 77+, AJ+ you have 36% equity so this is a -3.7% equity call if you do. Against 55+, A8s+, ATo+ you have 37.3% equity, still not enough.

Now, it's an interesting point about being able to pwn the bubble with the big stack. How many extra % points do you think that's worth? Even if we were guaranteed to win the tourney if we had the big stack, the biggest share of the prize pool we could have is 50%.

[bigspenda73]

Why is a 3bb raise better than 2.5x taipan?

[gingerwizard]

I think we get at least +3M owning the bubble. (We could get data on that using PT and the times we've pwned the bubble. My PT still down )
That's 400 a time and should be worth 2 or 3.

I'm playing ATM, but I might run some calcs later or tomorrow on this.