pwning bubble, should I fold AK

[gingerwizard]

So I'm caining the bubble, pushing every hand folded to and getting folds.

Then the shortie pushes UTG (well effectively) to my BB and I have AK.

Is calling bad because if I win I bust the bubble and have to stop pwning? Or should I not pass the chance to take a likely dominated hand on for 1000 more chips and hit ITM with a big stack.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $6.00+$0.50 Tournament, 200/400 Blinds 25 Ante (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t1020)
Button (t2225)
SB (t2500)
Hero (BB) (t7755)

Hero's M: 11.08

Preflop: Hero is BB with K, A
UTG raises to t800, 2 folds, Hero?

[d0zer]

This seems like the standardest shove of all shoves...


Also, what does this mean:

Is calling bad because if I win I bust the bubble and have to stop pwning?

This thread makes my head hurt and feel like I'm being leveled...

[baudib]

uh

[gingerwizard]

Tell me why you think it's a standard shove.

If you are hero, why do you want the bubble to end?

[bigspenda73]

it's not like our opponent's have bigger stacks

[mcatdog]

Don't make the mistake of overestimating your edge.

[gingerwizard]

it's not like our opponent's have bigger stacks

don't make the mistake of overestimating your edge

Man it's like cryptic clue day today.

spenda I'm not even sure who your comment is aimed at and whether or not it defines your opinion on the problem.

mcat, I think my question asks is my edge on the bubble here big enough to consider keeping the short stack in. Is your response supposed to imply that our bubble edge over the field is not enough for us to turn down such a +$EV shove over the short stack? Or were you asking if I'd thought about quantifying my edge?

[Nakamura]

I think I call/push here. Although you may bust the bubble, the other 2 players are still competing for 2nd. So although this pressure is less than the bubble pressure, it can still be used to dominate your opponents.

[taipan168]

I think what the others are saying is that the expected value you're giving up of huge pot odds with a monster hand outweighs the (often somewhat dubious) expected value you might gain of keeping the short stack alive and continuing to exploit the bubble.

Personally I think the bubble exploitation thing is far more effective in tourneys where the payout for the first few places is hundreds of times greater than the first places ITM but where players (irrationally) fear bubbling out. WSOP or Stars Sunday Million bubble is a perfect case in point.

[gingerwizard]

I agree and shoved over. I thought it was interesting though to consider the EV of pwning the bubble.

Also not sure I think the fear players have of bubbling the million of WSOP is irrational. The time you invest to get so far and the kudos involved in doing well in such an event (particularly the WSOP), should also be considerations that effect your decision making. After all how many times in one's life does one get to the bubble of the WSOP?

[trilerian]

I think pushing over was the right thing to do, point of dispute, I think it was the only thing you could do. I will try to explain clearly however I lack the mathematics you so eloquently possess. Here is my reasoning; You fold you might look weak and and increase the likelihood of aggression from the other players, making it so you might not as effectively pwn the bubble anymore. Although this in itself is not as big a factor as I think it is, I do think that by pushing over with AK, even if you lose, you are showing that you are not trying to pwn with weak hands. Which means a huge advantage in the psychological aspect of the game. If you lose I highly doubt your bubble pwning will be affected and within a few orbits you should be back to where you were, and if you win, not only will your chip stack be a huge advantage but the psychological advantage on top of that along with your play, should be enough to almost guarantee first place.

Of course this could be wrong, but I personally think you are adding another edge to your situation by pushing.

[rudefella]

I think this is really interesting thread. I realize that the bubble can be profitably exploited when other players have a fear of being OTM, but I have never considered folding a +EV hand situation for possibly better +EV bubble situation. Is their a way to estimate how profitable the exploitable situation is?

I am trying to think if there a analogous situation in a cash game, where you may fold a +EV hand to keep a specific player in the game (who you know will not buy back in), because his presence creates a exploitable table dynamic.

[gingerwizard]

There is a way to estimate how profitable the situation is. Unfortunately it involves some data analysis.

There are pros and cons with that. The pros being that I'm good at data analysis, the cons being I have no data.

If we could get a pool of enough hands and sessions where we have pwned the bubble, I'm sure that I could give a good estimate of our expected gain in equity for being huge stack, and compare this expected gain across buyins, and even poker sites.

I can't think of any theory that would come close to doing better without data, and even if my PT database was not dead, I alone wouldn't have enough relevant hands.

[chuckc3401]

UTG has 2.5 BB's left. A call is automatic. Even if you fold the short stack won't be around much longer at these blinds so bubble play is about over anyway.

[drmcboy]

you have so pwned the usage of pwned that now you're just pwning ywuself

I think in general you should only consider keeping the bubble alive when the decision is other wise close - say you're getting 2/1 to call a shorty shove and you have T3o.

[gingerwizard]

I certainly think AK is too good to fold.

Not sure T4 is the best hand I lay down thoughv

[fdnypoker]

Don't make the mistake of overestimating your edge.

Easy call here. Once bubble breaks you will have 2 even stacks playing for second. You can still put pressure on them. In addition...adding almost 14% to your stack with a hand that dominates your opps range makes this a call IMO