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99 turns a set, lots of broadways on board ($27)

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  1. #1

    Default 99 turns a set, lots of broadways on board ($27)

    Preflop call was probably too loose considering stack size and position, but whatever.

    Opp's stats were something like 15/0 at this point, no other reads. What's your river move?

    PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $25+$2 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (9 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

    Hero (MP1) (t1230)
    MP2 (t1560)
    MP3 (t1890)
    CO (t1425)
    Button (t1290)
    SB (t1440)
    BB (t1735)
    UTG (t1190)
    UTG+1 (t1740)

    Hero's M: 27.33

    Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 9, 9
    UTG calls t30, UTG+1 raises to t120, Hero calls t120, 7 folds

    Flop: (t315) 10, K, 5 (2 players)
    UTG+1 checks, Hero checks

    Turn: (t315) 9 (2 players)
    UTG+1 checks, Hero bets t200, UTG+1 calls t200

    River: (t715) Q (2 players)
    UTG+1 checks, Hero ????
  2. #2
    The only thing he could have here that beats us is JJ/AJ so I think you have to bet. I also think he can call with a lot worse like AT or AQ.

    Bet $300.
  3. #3
    Opp could also have QQ, if he is willing to check JJ on the river, he could just as easily check QQ on the river. I think the hands opp can have are JJ, QQ or AQs, AQo. Generally I think you get a call from QQ, AQ and a raise from JJ, considering you beat most the hands you get a call from and have a slight edge against his entire range here you should bet. But what amount is my issue. Opp has about 500 more in chips than you, which means he could just raise any half pot or smaller bet if he thinks it is weakness on your part and should fold everything but JJ and maybe QQ to a push from you. But how likely is it that opp really does have JJ or QQ? If opp has JJ and stayed in the hand with it, then he got the best card he could hope for on the river, he should bet not check. If opp has QQ he got the second best card he could hope for on the river and could easily bet repping a straight. So I think I bet half the pot looking for a call from AQ, if he pushes me, I am not too upset and call the push.
  4. #4
    if you don't bet after he checks to you here pre flop is not iffy it's bad. you don't even close the action.

    baudib's 300 works for me.

    I'm ignoring the 15/0 because I am assuming no sample
  5. #5
    actually i don't see any reason why he would check a straight and I can't see overset happening here so definitely bet.
    Playing big pots at small stakes.
  6. #6
    Quote Originally Posted by drmcboy
    I'm ignoring the 15/0 because I am assuming no sample
    qft

    You can't call pre based purely on marginal implied odds, hit a set and not try to get it in. Bet, and make it 300-400, and obv call the shove
    This is not my signature. I just write this at the bottom of every post.

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