Bad bubble play?

[fdnypoker]

Opp's pushed AI 4 of last 5 hands and on one he showed 77. Decent player. Numbers around 18/10. Feel like I made a questionable call here. This should have been an easy fold??

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, $10+$1 Tournament, 100/200 Blinds 25 Ante (4 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com



SB (t1995)
Hero (BB) (t1615)
UTG (t7795)
Button (t2095)

Hero's M: 4.04



Preflop: Hero is BB with 8, A
2 folds, SB raises to t1970 (All-In), Hero calls t1390 (All-In)

Flop: (t3280) A, 4, J (2 players, 2 all-in)

Turn: (t3280) Q (2 players, 2 all-in)

River: (t3280) K (2 players, 2 all-in)

Total pot: t3280

[baudib]

With him pushing that much I'd loosen up SLIGHTLY but not this much.

[fdnypoker]

Think I agree. Opp was almost to the felt and had a good run but only showed that one hand. I thought he was getting a little out of line. Reason I called. Where is your calling range here? A-10s+, AQos+ 88+? Is that to tight?

[Rycky4Golf]

I honestly feel that if he is truly pushing that wide (80% of the time) then this is a snap call. He showed you 77 once, probably the only "good" hand he had the whole time. He is correct in pushing 80%+ of his hands here and I would even argue that ATC would be correct if your calling range is as tight as you said it is.

I use a Nash calculator but I'm interested to see what SNG Pro or the like would say about this. I'm thinking you have to get in there and fight, otherwise this guy will merely wear you down. FWIW, here is what my Nash calc says, hope the link works:

ICM Nash Calculator Results

[fdnypoker]

I ended up getting it in good and was drawn out on a runner runner. My real problem is the blinds are 100/200 here, I'll be in the SB next hand so I have a couple of hands to try to pick up something better but than I lose all fold equity.

Thanks for the link Rycky4Golf. I have to start learning ICM a little better. I guess going by feel is out!



*** FLOP *** [Ac 4h Jc]
*** TURN *** [Ac 4h Jc] [Qh]
*** RIVER *** [Ac 4h Jc Qh] [Kd]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
time4lime: shows [Kh Qs] (two pair, Kings and Queens)
hard_hooker: shows [8h Ad] (a pair of Aces)

[Rycky4Golf]

Its takes a little time looking at different hands and spots but after a while you do get a "feel" for it. As I see he actually had a pretty darn good hand for the spot you were in.

If he had been only shoving as little as half as much I'd definately tighten the calling range shown in Nash, not sure if I'd tighten enough to fold A8o.

[taipan168]

I ran this in SNG Wiz and it is an +EV call if SB is shoving 42% or wider. If opp knows what he/she is doing then it's a snap call since he/she should be shoving 100% in this spot.

I ended up getting it in good

Not to say your call was bad, but you do know that if opp showed KQo face up you would still have to fold your A8o since it is not +EV to take a 57/43 here due to the ICM effect.

[fdnypoker]

Not to say your call was bad, but you do know that if opp showed KQo face up you would still have to fold your A8o since it is not +EV to take a 57/43 here due to the ICM effect.

This is where I have a serious game deficiency. I need to dig into ICM. Because, and I am being honest here, if opp was to show me KQ face up I would think a call is 100% right. If you can get in at 57/43 why wouldn't you.

So much to learn!

merry Christmas all. Just about that time here in NY. Kids just went up. time to get in a quick game and put out the gifts. Everyone enjoy your day.

Tom

[taipan168]

Not to say your call was bad, but you do know that if opp showed KQo face up you would still have to fold your A8o since it is not +EV to take a 57/43 here due to the ICM effect.

This is where I have a serious game deficiency. I need to dig into ICM. Because, and I am being honest here, if opp was to show me KQ face up I would think a call is 100% right. If you can get in at 57/43 why wouldn't you.

For the simple reason that even if you call, win and (more than) double your stack here, you don't double your share of the prize pool.

Running the ICM numbers:

- If you fold you will have 1390 chips worth 15.8% of the prize pool
- If you call and win you will have 3280 chips worth 29.9% of the prize pool
- If you call and lose you will be out.

Therefore, you need to be 15.8/29.9 = 52.8% to win to make this a good call. Oops, I'm wrong - you WOULD call if opp showed you KQo face up and shoved.

I guess my example would probably hold more water if the stack sizes were more like:

UTG t2500
Button t2500
SB t5000
BB (Hero) t3500