Is this a fist-pump instacall call here with AK?

[baudib]

No real reads on villain; not much in the way of stats. Everyone is playing pretty tight. Few raises are being contested; the ones that are end on the flop.

I had seen him shove over a button raise from SB before. Of note, he might be annoyed at me because I had raised his BB twice in the past three orbits from the button (I had legit hands). Should I factor impatience into his range?

We're into the third hour of the $18,000 guarantee. My stack is very good size and if I lose I'll be crippled.

No Limit Holdem Tournament
$18000 Guarantee
8 players
Converted at weaktight.com

Stacks:
UTG LiFe Is CrAp (7460)
UTG+1 aysoboys (18755)
MP1 Flushy Mcallin1 (13607)
MP2 Hero (15518)
CO JPips (14410)
BTN Senseisean (13607)
SB Winsom Cash (13613)
BB DaCapitalist (8983)

Blinds: 150/300 Ante 25

Pre-flop: (650, 8 players) Hero is MP2
3 folds, Hero raises to 750, 1 fold, Senseisean goes all-in 13582, 2 folds, Hero?????

[fjuanl]

As in your other other thread, this line is almost never QQ+. Shoving over an open with 40bbs is pretty much 88-JJ, AQ+. I wouldn't factor in impatience unless villain actually typed something in chat about you stealing. I think this is a call regardless of your image, but definetly a snap call if you have a loose one

[baudib]

My image was very tight or should have been. FWIW, he was NOWHERE near as good as your range either.

[sk8r_daniel]

I'm a little confused, if he most likely has a pair and you are 45-55 against him, then why is it a fist pump call? Is it because you already have 750 invested and pot odds make it a call? Or because Aq is in his range? Oh yeah, and what is FWIW?

[Penneywize]

I've seen many a donk repush with very marginal hands in this type of situation. What'd he have exactly.. A-rag?

btw, FWIW = For What It's Worth.

[baudib]

He had AT, I flopped trip kings.

[Penneywize]

Nice. That is a tasty result.

I'm not entirely sure what it is that drives the motivation to repush with a hand like AT in this pos... I'll try and do some pokerstove analysis on this with a few different ranges and see what the equity is like from his position.

[Penneywize]

Alright, so we're talking about facing a 2.5 BB raise from late-MP while on the button with ATo.

Ranges (feel free to suggest alternatives - I'm just throwing these out there)

ATo vs:

99+,AJs+,AQo+ (strong / very strong range)
28.166%

88-77,AJs-ATs,KQs,AJo-ATo,KQo (medium range)
45.931%

66-22,ATs,KTs+,QTs+,JTs,ATo,KTo+,QTo+,JTo (weak range)
58.923%


It seems that versus a medium range (as defined above) it's a marginally bad decision, though with the blinds and antes perhaps that small edge is already compensated for. As well, a reraise against these hands could result in a fold.

Against a weak range (again, as I have it defined for this particular situation) ATo is a fairly significant favourite.

Maybe our assumption on the villain's actions are a little hasty. Or, maybe I just came up with really shit hand ranges. Can pushing ATo here be a generally good poker move?

[chardrian]

If you can put AQ- in his range, yes.

[baudib]

If he was observant at all he should notice I'm folding 90 percent of my hands. I still think he was annoyed at me stealing (with 77, AQo) his BB twice.

[Thunder]

How is calling with AK here EV+?

You hope he has Ax but any pair means you're racing unnecessarily and seriously crippled when you lose. Even against any pair and A10+ you're less than 50% to win. Isn't this an easy fold, even if you suspect the strength of opp's hand?

[Cole24b]

I have to agree with Thunder here. Making a move like the with A10 is over active after three hours on his part. Maybe, like you said, your constant blind raising has gotten to him but ultimately you are risking most of your chips in a situation where I would assume I was a 55-45 underdog.

[gingerwizard]

Even against any pair and A10+ you're less than 50% to win.

I don't think that is true.

[gingerwizard]

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

2,404,074,816 games 0.341 secs 7,050,072,774 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 52.570% 48.04% 04.53% 1154830128 109001640.00 { AKo }
Hand 1: 47.430% 42.90% 04.53% 1031241408 109001640.00 { 22+, ATs+, ATo+ }

[Thunder]

48% to win still seems completely stupid to call off 13000 for the 1200 in the pot. Any pair makes you a 45% dog and that is why I said your best hope is that he's pushing with a weaker ace.

That villain had A10 is irrelevant as hero had no idea what he had. Even air has a 35% chance so how is calling with AK +EV?

Mcat, Char, Drmc?

[drmcboy]

+EV means positive expected value. Since we are ahead of his range, we get more of the pot than he does and so the play is +EV. There is also dead money in the pot so we could be a slight dog and still show a profit.

In addition, the numbers Ginger posted include QQ+ which as has been said already in the thread this will almost never be.

There may be a small ICM effect pushing us to fold depending on where the money is, but there is also a benefit to having a big stack and possibly to putting some fear into the table for future steals.

Phil Hellmuth would say he can get his chips in with a better price, and maybe he can. But the average poker player is better off pushing any edge they can. If this were the only tournament you ever expected to play, you could fold. But over time, pushing a 5% edge adds up. And don't forget, folding is not a 0 EV play, it's a -EV play.

[sk8r_daniel]

Nice post DRmcboy. I think in the future I will call in a situation like this. Doubling through here may make you a fearful table captain. Is there any way to quantify the value of having a stack twice as large as anyone at the table?

[mcatdog]

48% to win still seems completely stupid to call off 13000 for the 1200 in the pot. Any pair makes you a 45% dog and that is why I said your best hope is that he's pushing with a weaker ace.

That villain had A10 is irrelevant as hero had no idea what he had. Even air has a 35% chance so how is calling with AK +EV?

Mcat, Char, Drmc?

I'm the wrong person to ask if you want someone to back you up here. Gamble!

[Thunder]

Mcat, not back up just verification.

He may well have a weak pair, or Ax, and is a hand he wants to play but can't risk losing a good portion of his stack with a pf raise and a bet on the flop.

If you call and his hand holds up, or catches a card, wouldn't you feel you made a reckless call? Wouldn't this be the crime of over valuing AK like so many fish?

I could understand when stacks are low, you need to accumulate and there's plenty of fishy money to take but again it seems loose at this stage of the game.

[Thunder]

Since we are ahead of his range, we get more of the pot than he does and so the play is +EV. Phil Hellmuth would say he can get his chips in with a better price, and maybe he can. But the average poker player is better off pushing any edge they can.

I see your point though am uncomfortable with such a call where I am hoping he has Ax - especially as you have a big stack and can afford to wait. Besides, just one raise and c bet wins back what you would lose by folding here. Am I being a huge nit by wanting odds closer to 60/40?

[baudib]

I'm with mcat. I think you are ahead here often enough to make the call especially with this type of action. As I said I'm more inclined to fold JJ here.

[drmcboy]

Thunder -If 20% is good and 5% is bad, how about 15%? Where is the line? You cannot 'make back' the equity you lose here, it's gone forever.

Baubid - Remember he will have Ax a lot more often since the AK range one A is out. I'm assuming you said that because you are "OK" against QQ with AK but if you call with AK you better be calling with JJ.

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

914,370,336 games 0.031 secs 29,495,817,290 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.711% 32.96% 00.75% 301398132 6841518.00 { 22+, ATs, ATo }
Hand 1: 66.289% 65.54% 00.75% 599289168 6841518.00 { JJ }

[baudib]

Dr why would you leave AQ-AK out of his range? I also don't think he's pushing 22-66 very often...

[dthorne04]

Mcat, not back up just verification.

He may well have a weak pair, or Ax, and is a hand he wants to play but can't risk losing a good portion of his stack with a pf raise and a bet on the flop.

If you call and his hand holds up, or catches a card, wouldn't you feel you made a reckless call? Wouldn't this be the crime of over valuing AK like so many fish?

I could understand when stacks are low, you need to accumulate and there's plenty of fishy money to take but again it seems loose at this stage of the game.

What does it matter if villain sucks out on you? results oriented ftw.

Also, if you're waiting for edges closer to 60% then you're probably a losing player. Basically refer to drmcboy's posts, he's covered it.

[drmcboy]

range fat finger, but it doesn't matter much. If you want to take out 22-66 fine but also take out QQ+

Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

1,325,323,296 games 0.005 secs 265,064,659,200 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 36.083% 35.46% 00.62% 469991232 8219964.00 { 22+, ATs+, ATo+ }
Hand 1: 63.917% 63.30% 00.62% 838892136 8219964.00 { JJ }


Text results appended to pokerstove.txt

832,179,744 games 0.005 secs 166,435,948,800 games/sec

Board:
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 32.364% 31.51% 00.86% 262203408 7119804.00 { JJ-77, ATs+, ATo+ }
Hand 1: 67.636% 66.78% 00.86% 555736728 7119804.00 { JJ }

[baudib]

I admit it's a leak that I'd rather have AK than TT/JJ here.

[AAsoooted]

How is calling with AK here EV+?

You hope he has Ax but any pair means you're racing unnecessarily and seriously crippled when you lose. Even against any pair and A10+ you're less than 50% to win. Isn't this an easy fold, even if you suspect the strength of opp's hand?

^^^^^^^^^^^^^qft

[MrPocketSevens]

I agree with thunder in this spot. We are in the early stages on the tournament and we don't need to make a 40BB call when we are flipping against his range. You can easily throw this one away and have a very decent chip stack that allows you to wait for a much better spot to get your money in ... you have just 2,5BB invested how hard can it be to fold?? And two basic rules of tournaments agree with the fold:

1 - Don't overplay AK on the early stages
2 - Be pacience and protect your chipstack

PS: Instant call with JJ ... you're a 2:1 favourite against his range

[Stacks]

Fwiw to everyone saying we should fold, you only need 46.1% equity against his range to make this a call. As everyone here has said we have more than that, so call.

[Kijjo]

Are a lot of you guys who are advocating pushing the slim edges mainly cash players? Has anyone considered that you've invested 3 hrs into this tourney and you're telling people they should be willing to flip a good sized stack anywhere along the way?
I have no problem with the call, believe I would call it (cause seems I run into WAY more folks to have weaker A here than pps), but I wouldn't be preaching to anyone that you should push the tiny edges with a goodsized stack over a tiny pot.

[baudib]

I'm more inclined to push small edges in MTTs than cash games.

Having invested three hours into the tournament really means nothing. My stack here is nice size but it doesn't guarantee anything.

FWIW, I won this hand, won the other AK hand (part deux), but still ended up shortstacked and all-in two hands in a row in the BB/SB with 16 left. Made a huge rally and finished third.

[bikes]

UR TOURNEY LIFE OMG!!! ITS FOR HIS TOURNAMENT LIFE HOW CAN HE CALL?!?!?!?



Snap him off.

[bigspenda73]

I just realized I haven't posted in this thread although I've read in 10 times.

pushing small edges is pretty important when stacks are shallow, I don't get why people can't understand this.

[mcatdog]

This is not a small edge. Our pot odds say we need 46% equity and we have significantly more than 50% according to the ranges that were posted.

[Sprayed]

I just realized I haven't posted in this thread although I've read in 10 times.

pushing small edges is pretty important when stacks are shallow, I don't get why people can't understand this.

I've been playing more cash recently and what I have realized is that as a tourney donk, I gave more emphasis to a deep stack when I was >30bbs. Playing cash has helped me to realize that 30bbs isn't that deep of a stack. I'm thinking that some folks posting here might have this mentality and folding in these spots thinking that they are deep and shouldn't risk their tournament life.


OP's 50bb stack is healthy but isn't exactly deep. Regardless, I can't see villain shoving KK+ in this spot, but I can see a donk shoving AQ+, 77-QQ giving you a +EV call. Even if you make their range tighter (not including KK+) this is still a call.

Edit: pot odds yo, easy call.

[baudib]

Great points. Unless you're at the starting level in those FT double-stack tourneys, we're rarely deepstacked in MTTs. That's why you stack off with TPTK/overpair in MTTs and avoid doing so in cash games.